@DNA3000 Can we drop some stats on this guy? (It doesn't matter which stats, it's highly likely they wont understand them so it could be random numbers.) This is like the 3rd time I've seen them say this exact thing today
@DNA3000 Can we drop some stats on this guy? (It doesn't matter which stats, it's highly likely they wont understand them so it could be random numbers.) This is like the 3rd time I've seen them say this exact thing today
Yeah, because people complaining about drop rates really want to read a 10 paragraph essay...
Apparently people responding to me cant read inside parenthesis either
I believe the drop rates are correct...it is the contents of the crystal that I question. The recent issue over Warlock not being in a crystal is, in my opinion, not a new occurrence. I have opened many crystals that were supposed have new champs added to the crystal but THEY never spun past or showed among the champs running past the spin. I have brought it up in here many times but never gotten ,"keep what you got and we will give you another." I have also heard multiple times over the years that "the spinner images are for entertainment only," but I can say for certain that a spin never stopped on a champ I didn't see go by several times before I hit the screen to crack the crystal. I am sorry you did not get the champ you wanted, but, odds are "he has been added to the pool" or is "in the pool" but he is not in every champ crystal you spin... That is my opinion anyway.
How do people still not understand the spinner is fake
The only thing Kabam should be audited is the reel of heroes when you open the crystal. That reel doesn't reflect the drop rates not even in the slightest.
Let's say the drop rates are: - 60% --- 3 * hero - 30% --- 4 * hero - 9% --- 5 * hero - 1% --- 6* hero
You see in the reel more 5* + 6* than you see 3*. And in most cases, the crystal will land on a 3* having on the left and right 5* or 6*.
The rates may be 100% accurate but the visual reel is 100% misleading.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
On that note though, it does remind me back in ye olden days when 4*s reigned supreme, a dude was spinning arena crystals and one of them it briefly showed 4* punisher and then switched to gold after a couple frames. It was quite funny.
I have also heard multiple times over the years that "the spinner images are for entertainment only," but I can say for certain that a spin never stopped on a champ I didn't see go by several times before I hit the screen to crack the crystal
You almost certainly have, you just don’t remember or didn’t notice.
The spinner does not contain every champ possible in the crystal in the general case. There’s a hard coded limit on how many different things can show up in the spinner. I think it is 40 or something similar. I did an analysis of the spinner a while back but I can’t seem to find it now. I do still have some of the raw data though. If you actually watch the spinner frame by frame (which unfortunately I’ve actually done) and tracked who appears and when, it isn’t entirely random and it isn’t complete. The spinner contains a fixed subset of the champs in the crystal, and what’s more it is the *same* subset if you open multiple crystals. If you back out and go back into the spinner, it is a *different* subset. Which means the subset of champions that will show in the spinner is randomly selected when you enter the spinner screen itself, but all the crystals you open there generate random results from the drop table. Obviously, if you are opening enough crystals there no way all of those crystals will drop contents from the spinner display.
If you only open crystals with small tables like featured crystals, then of course the spinner will contain all possible drops. But for any crystal with more than a handful of options in the reward tables, the spinner will only contain a small subset of them, and the actual reward drop is not guaranteed to be in that spinner set (it shows up visually separate from the normal spinner contents when the drop finalizes, of course).
Here's an example of a 4* Basic crystal allowed to spin out to the drop without tapping:
This is every champion that showed up in the spinner, in order, along with some highlights of mine that indicate the first time, and the last time that a champion showed up in the spinner. The drop is also indicated: it was Gambit. Throughout the spin, Gambit never shows up in the spinner until the actual drop: in other words, he's not actually in the spinner at all. In this case, thirty distinct champions showed up in the reel including Gambit, out of 209 champion spots that appeared during the spin. That is far fewer distinct champions than you would expect to see, demonstrating that the spinner is actually showing a subset. And the fact that Gambit is not one of those champs suggests the drop isn't selected from the spinner subset. Gambit could have been in the spinner subset but just not shown up randomly although that seems unlikely, as every champ that shows up at all shows up at least three times.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
"Fun" doesn't exclude "misleading".
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
It has been said before by Kabam that the reel contents are taken from the contents of the crystal. Still doesn't really reflect drop rates, except by indicating that the crystal contents are wrong in that an item is present that shouldn't be.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
"Fun" doesn't exclude "misleading".
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
It has been said before by Kabam that the reel contents are taken from the contents of the crystal. Still doesn't really reflect drop rates, except by indicating that the crystal contents are wrong in that an item is present that shouldn't be.
Bruh... of course it's taken from the crystal contents. They arent gonna show Morbius in the basic unless he is in there. It only pulls a certain number of champions into the reel for the visual, not every champion. Think a little bit
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
"Fun" doesn't exclude "misleading".
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
It has been said before by Kabam that the reel contents are taken from the contents of the crystal. Still doesn't really reflect drop rates, except by indicating that the crystal contents are wrong in that an item is present that shouldn't be.
Just a note here: across the entire nine year history of the game, I believe the spinner has not always worked in exactly the same way. I am pretty sure that at the moment it works the way it is described here, but it hasn't always. So it is important not to generalize events that might have happened years ago as saying something definitive about how the crystal spinner mechanics work now without careful testing.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
"Fun" doesn't exclude "misleading".
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
It has been said before by Kabam that the reel contents are taken from the contents of the crystal. Still doesn't really reflect drop rates, except by indicating that the crystal contents are wrong in that an item is present that shouldn't be.
Just a note here: across the entire nine year history of the game, I believe the spinner has not always worked in exactly the same way. I am pretty sure that at the moment it works the way it is described here, but it hasn't always. So it is important not to generalize events that might have happened years ago as saying something definitive about how the crystal spinner mechanics work now without careful testing.
It's also important to note that it does pull from the actual crystal pool or players would genuinely be misled by seeing champs that arent included in specific crystals
This thread is pointless and you should save yourself the headache and trouble from it because Forum is run by Kabam If in a hypothetical world where someone could show verifiable proof that kabams rates were not %100 percent fixed and in no way at anytime ever tailored to player progression. Do you really think they would pay to host it on their own forums??? Or do you rationally believe they wouldn’t allow you to hurt their company on a site they own? It would be a meaningless a futile endeavor to search for the truth from the place you’re trying to incriminate.. 😂🤣☠️ the entire notion. Regardless of what verifiable IP they own or data they collect in reality. This would never be the place to have that discussion. There are people that won’t believe anything Kabam says Others will believe anything they tell them Pro-Kabam will have the ability to insult and demean whoever Anti-Kabam players probably shouldn’t do the same. Either way No matter how silly the notion of this is or isn’t. This clearly isn’t the place to look for “ Answers” players can be very cruel and irrational at times
But if it makes you feel any better personally. Its an absolute verified fact that corporations have in the past chose to continue to be in violation of codes and laws, simply because it was more cost effective to pay the fines attached then change what they were doing. Other companies NOT NAMED KABAM have knowingly violated the law in the past for profits. Again NOT KABAM!!! No need to attack me for pointing out the logical conclusion of capitalism.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
"Fun" doesn't exclude "misleading".
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
It has been said before by Kabam that the reel contents are taken from the contents of the crystal. Still doesn't really reflect drop rates, except by indicating that the crystal contents are wrong in that an item is present that shouldn't be.
Just a note here: across the entire nine year history of the game, I believe the spinner has not always worked in exactly the same way. I am pretty sure that at the moment it works the way it is described here, but it hasn't always. So it is important not to generalize events that might have happened years ago as saying something definitive about how the crystal spinner mechanics work now without careful testing.
It's also important to note that it does pull from the actual crystal pool or players would genuinely be misled by seeing champs that arent included in specific crystals
That is a technical issue. The crystal could be programmed to directly pull its spinner contents from the reward pools of the crystal, or it could be configured to display from a set of champions created by the designer. The problem with the latter option is not that it is inherently misleading, it is that it creates the potential for human error.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
I will stop here because we are getting nowhere. The reel has been like this for years. And now I've been also called ignorant for something I know but I don't approve. I don't want to change the world or the rules set by Kabam in their own game but I think I have the right to a personal opinion on a certain matter.
Kabam has already publicly stated the reel is an animation for fun and doesn't actually reflect the drop rates of the crystal.
I will stop here because we are getting nowhere. The reel has been like this for years. And now I've been also called ignorant for something I know but I don't approve. I don't want to change the world or the rules set by Kabam in their own game but I think I have the right to a personal opinion on a certain matter.
You definitely have the right to your own opinion. When you express that opinion on here, it's subject to rebuttal. As for the spin, it's impossible for the reel to reflect the actual drop rates. It doesn't spin long enough. It's a generated random list of some of the possibilities in it, simply just a visual effect. It's not meant to be an accurate depiction. There isn't even a roll when you open one. You select the Crystal and either place it or click Open, and the server generates an outcome immediately.
To all you naysayers...you were wrong.. Kabam announced a problem a few days ago with 7* class specific crystals...Like I said before, I bet there were issues on the first release day a month ago or so on the 7* update because in my alliance with 20+ tries, no one got one of the updated champs... But we all know Kabam won't admit because to address it at this level would be 10s of thousands of people...
To all you naysayers...you were wrong.. Kabam announced a problem a few days ago with 7* class specific crystals...Like I said before, I bet there were issues on the first release day a month ago or so on the 7* update because in my alliance with 20+ tries, no one got one of the updated champs... But we all know Kabam won't admit because to address it at this level would be 10s of thousands of people...
....... They literally did admit and address it tho? How does this help your argument at all?
More importantly, how will this affect LeBron's legacy?
To all you naysayers...you were wrong.. Kabam announced a problem a few days ago with 7* class specific crystals...Like I said before, I bet there were issues on the first release day a month ago or so on the 7* update because in my alliance with 20+ tries, no one got one of the updated champs... But we all know Kabam won't admit because to address it at this level would be 10s of thousands of people...
You mean the thing that multiple people pointed out to you on this thread when you posted this two weeks ago because it was already being addressed? How do you rationally hold the idea “Kabam discovered and publicly addressed a problem, SO THEY MUST BE HIDING OTHER PROBLEMS!” Quit being obtuse and conspiratorial. Sometimes people are unlucky. Sometimes bad things happen. Nobody’s trying to pull one over on you.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
I can guarantee you there is someone there that probably has oversight of those things.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
I can guarantee you there is someone there that probably has oversight of those things.
“Probably”…
I don’t expect a clear response on this from Kabam if it’s handled internally. I was just pointing out what I think is a valid question and some arguments that don’t make sense.
I’m more curious if there is anyone external that monitors this at all. “If” Kabam were to intentionally alter rates, an internal person overseeing it doesn’t matter.
I think the OP was asking if anyone outside Kabam ever monitors this stuff. It sounds like the answer is no. The only way it would get looked at is if someone had enough evidence to get a lawyer to take the case to court which is unlikely.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
It is not the same. Players break the rules all the time, because the consequences of breaking the rules is either non-existent or so small as to be judged worth the risk. However, companies do not generally commit widespread fraud for no reason. There's all kinds of examples of companies committing fraud to be sure, but there's usually some strong incentive to do so. There's essentially no incentive for Kabam or any other game operator to deliberately defraud its customers by manipulating lootbox odds, because they are completely within their rights to define those odds as anything they want and simply not lie about it. We have multirarity crystals where Kabam simply decided that 6* champs would have a 3% chance to drop, or 1% chance, or whatever. We have featured crystals where one specific champ has explicit rare chances to drop that once again, Kabam just made up. There are crystals with no posted odds at all, because Kabam is under no obligation to even tell you what they are.
When you literally make the game and make all the rules, cheating is completely nonsensical. If Kabam wanted to make a different tier of champion and make them rarer, they could just do so. And in fact, they did so: that's literally what the star ratings are: different rarity champs with different strengths and different rarities in crystals that contain multiple rarities.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
No, it’s nothing like that. A player who mode is risking an account on a free to play video game. A company that breaks the law risks massive financial penalties among other things.
And for what gain? What benefit does Kabam receive if players don’t get the champions they want from crystals that have finite availability like the class selector crystals from Necropolis? These aren’t things that can be bought with money. There’s literally no upside to Kabam for doing that.
It’s a simple cost/benefit analysis for Kabam and it makes no sense to risk that kind of money and bad press for no benefit.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
It is not the same. Players break the rules all the time, because the consequences of breaking the rules is either non-existent or so small as to be judged worth the risk. However, companies do not generally commit widespread fraud for no reason. There's all kinds of examples of companies committing fraud to be sure, but there's usually some strong incentive to do so. There's essentially no incentive for Kabam or any other game operator to deliberately defraud its customers by manipulating lootbox odds, because they are completely within their rights to define those odds as anything they want and simply not lie about it. We have multirarity crystals where Kabam simply decided that 6* champs would have a 3% chance to drop, or 1% chance, or whatever. We have featured crystals where one specific champ has explicit rare chances to drop that once again, Kabam just made up. There are crystals with no posted odds at all, because Kabam is under no obligation to even tell you what they are.
When you literally make the game and make all the rules, cheating is completely nonsensical. If Kabam wanted to make a different tier of champion and make them rarer, they could just do so. And in fact, they did so: that's literally what the star ratings are: different rarity champs with different strengths and different rarities in crystals that contain multiple rarities.
This implies there are no laws or governance over this then which contradicts all the posts saying “it would be illegal”.
And the incentive would be to encourage spending on the chase without delivering to encourage more spending. If Kabam says a crystal had a 10% drop rate for the top prize, more people would buy it than if they said it had a .01% chance.
If it was advertised as 10% but actually had a .01% I’d bet people would buy more thinking the odds are in their favor to get the top prize.
Saying there is no incentive doesn’t make sense to me. Saying the risk/reward isn’t there for a company is interesting. I don’t know what the risk is. Would it be a fine? A court ordered refund? Or could they just send out more crystals with the right drop rates with no financial consequence?
And that is assuming they were caught. If nobody external is watching, how would they get caught and who would impose financial consequences?
(Disclaimer for all my posts in this thread: I don’t think Kabam is doing this at all. I just think it’s an interesting conversation.)
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
It is not the same. Players break the rules all the time, because the consequences of breaking the rules is either non-existent or so small as to be judged worth the risk. However, companies do not generally commit widespread fraud for no reason. There's all kinds of examples of companies committing fraud to be sure, but there's usually some strong incentive to do so. There's essentially no incentive for Kabam or any other game operator to deliberately defraud its customers by manipulating lootbox odds, because they are completely within their rights to define those odds as anything they want and simply not lie about it. We have multirarity crystals where Kabam simply decided that 6* champs would have a 3% chance to drop, or 1% chance, or whatever. We have featured crystals where one specific champ has explicit rare chances to drop that once again, Kabam just made up. There are crystals with no posted odds at all, because Kabam is under no obligation to even tell you what they are.
When you literally make the game and make all the rules, cheating is completely nonsensical. If Kabam wanted to make a different tier of champion and make them rarer, they could just do so. And in fact, they did so: that's literally what the star ratings are: different rarity champs with different strengths and different rarities in crystals that contain multiple rarities.
This implies there are no laws or governance over this then which contradicts all the posts saying “it would be illegal”.
And the incentive would be to encourage spending on the chase without delivering to encourage more spending. If Kabam says a crystal had a 10% drop rate for the top prize, more people would buy it than if they said it had a .01% chance.
If it was advertised as 10% but actually had a .01% I’d bet people would buy more thinking the odds are in their favor to get the top prize.
Saying there is no incentive doesn’t make sense to me. Saying the risk/reward isn’t there for a company is interesting. I don’t know what the risk is. Would it be a fine? A court ordered refund? Or could they just send out more crystals with the right drop rates with no financial consequence?
And that is assuming they were caught. If nobody external is watching, how would they get caught and who would impose financial consequences?
(Disclaimer for all my posts in this thread: I don’t think Kabam is doing this at all. I just think it’s an interesting conversation.)
The law is that Kabam has to show drop rates for crystals are able to be bought with money. Kabam can get in trouble if they lie about those drop rates.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t believe Kabam is intentionally altering or misrepresenting drop rates. Mistakes happen. If they get noticed they fix them like the 7* situation that just played out.
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
That’s like saying this player didn’t mod because it’s against TOS.
It is not the same. Players break the rules all the time, because the consequences of breaking the rules is either non-existent or so small as to be judged worth the risk. However, companies do not generally commit widespread fraud for no reason. There's all kinds of examples of companies committing fraud to be sure, but there's usually some strong incentive to do so. There's essentially no incentive for Kabam or any other game operator to deliberately defraud its customers by manipulating lootbox odds, because they are completely within their rights to define those odds as anything they want and simply not lie about it. We have multirarity crystals where Kabam simply decided that 6* champs would have a 3% chance to drop, or 1% chance, or whatever. We have featured crystals where one specific champ has explicit rare chances to drop that once again, Kabam just made up. There are crystals with no posted odds at all, because Kabam is under no obligation to even tell you what they are.
When you literally make the game and make all the rules, cheating is completely nonsensical. If Kabam wanted to make a different tier of champion and make them rarer, they could just do so. And in fact, they did so: that's literally what the star ratings are: different rarity champs with different strengths and different rarities in crystals that contain multiple rarities.
This implies there are no laws or governance over this then which contradicts all the posts saying “it would be illegal”.
And the incentive would be to encourage spending on the chase without delivering to encourage more spending. If Kabam says a crystal had a 10% drop rate for the top prize, more people would buy it than if they said it had a .01% chance.
If it was advertised as 10% but actually had a .01% I’d bet people would buy more thinking the odds are in their favor to get the top prize.
Saying there is no incentive doesn’t make sense to me. Saying the risk/reward isn’t there for a company is interesting. I don’t know what the risk is. Would it be a fine? A court ordered refund? Or could they just send out more crystals with the right drop rates with no financial consequence?
And that is assuming they were caught. If nobody external is watching, how would they get caught and who would impose financial consequences?
(Disclaimer for all my posts in this thread: I don’t think Kabam is doing this at all. I just think it’s an interesting conversation.)
There are no current laws that mandate they show Drop Rates. There ARE laws preventing them from falsely disclosing information. Not to mention contractual obligations and relationships they've maintained for a decade.
And the incentive would be to encourage spending on the chase without delivering to encourage more spending. If Kabam says a crystal had a 10% drop rate for the top prize, more people would buy it than if they said it had a .01% chance.
So what you're saying is that when people demanded odds disclosures, and the app stores required odds disclosures for certain lootboxes, this was bad because it created an incentive to defraud.
Originally, Kabam did not disclose odds at all. They only started doing so when app stores changed their rules to require such odds disclosures. So for the entire history of the game until that happened, Kabam could not manipulate players in this way. Left to their own devices, they probably would have never published odds, and thus would have never had the ability to encourage more spending by lying about drop odds.
The people demanding odds disclosures are, by your argument creating opportunities for fraud that did not originally exist, and left to their own devices Kabam appeared to have no desire to pursue.
Comments
On that note though, it does remind me back in ye olden days when 4*s reigned supreme, a dude was spinning arena crystals and one of them it briefly showed 4* punisher and then switched to gold after a couple frames. It was quite funny.
The spinner does not contain every champ possible in the crystal in the general case. There’s a hard coded limit on how many different things can show up in the spinner. I think it is 40 or something similar. I did an analysis of the spinner a while back but I can’t seem to find it now. I do still have some of the raw data though. If you actually watch the spinner frame by frame (which unfortunately I’ve actually done) and tracked who appears and when, it isn’t entirely random and it isn’t complete. The spinner contains a fixed subset of the champs in the crystal, and what’s more it is the *same* subset if you open multiple crystals. If you back out and go back into the spinner, it is a *different* subset. Which means the subset of champions that will show in the spinner is randomly selected when you enter the spinner screen itself, but all the crystals you open there generate random results from the drop table. Obviously, if you are opening enough crystals there no way all of those crystals will drop contents from the spinner display.
If you only open crystals with small tables like featured crystals, then of course the spinner will contain all possible drops. But for any crystal with more than a handful of options in the reward tables, the spinner will only contain a small subset of them, and the actual reward drop is not guaranteed to be in that spinner set (it shows up visually separate from the normal spinner contents when the drop finalizes, of course).
Here's an example of a 4* Basic crystal allowed to spin out to the drop without tapping:
This is every champion that showed up in the spinner, in order, along with some highlights of mine that indicate the first time, and the last time that a champion showed up in the spinner. The drop is also indicated: it was Gambit. Throughout the spin, Gambit never shows up in the spinner until the actual drop: in other words, he's not actually in the spinner at all. In this case, thirty distinct champions showed up in the reel including Gambit, out of 209 champion spots that appeared during the spin. That is far fewer distinct champions than you would expect to see, demonstrating that the spinner is actually showing a subset. And the fact that Gambit is not one of those champs suggests the drop isn't selected from the spinner subset. Gambit could have been in the spinner subset but just not shown up randomly although that seems unlikely, as every champ that shows up at all shows up at least three times.
Forum is run by Kabam
If in a hypothetical world where someone could show verifiable proof that kabams rates were not %100 percent fixed and in no way at anytime ever tailored to player progression. Do you really think they would pay to host it on their own forums??? Or do you rationally believe they wouldn’t allow you to hurt their company on a site they own? It would be a meaningless a futile endeavor to search for the truth from the place you’re trying to incriminate.. 😂🤣☠️ the entire notion. Regardless of what verifiable IP they own or data they collect in reality. This would never be the place to have that discussion.
There are people that won’t believe anything Kabam says
Others will believe anything they tell them
Pro-Kabam will have the ability to insult and demean whoever
Anti-Kabam players probably shouldn’t do the same.
Either way
No matter how silly the notion of this is or isn’t. This clearly isn’t the place to look for “ Answers”
players can be very cruel and irrational at times
But if it makes you feel any better personally. Its an absolute verified fact that corporations have in the past chose to continue to be in violation of codes and laws, simply because it was more cost effective to pay the fines attached then change what they were doing. Other companies NOT NAMED KABAM have knowingly violated the law in the past for profits. Again
NOT KABAM!!! No need to attack me for pointing out the logical conclusion of capitalism.
As for the spin, it's impossible for the reel to reflect the actual drop rates. It doesn't spin long enough. It's a generated random list of some of the possibilities in it, simply just a visual effect. It's not meant to be an accurate depiction.
There isn't even a roll when you open one. You select the Crystal and either place it or click Open, and the server generates an outcome immediately.
More importantly, how will this affect LeBron's legacy?
I do think it was a fair question about someone monitoring these though.
Many have said something along the lines of “it’s illegal to misrepresent the rates” or “Apple/Google requires accurate rates” or “Netmarble wouldn’t risk it”.
None of those mean or prove Kabam isn’t doing it and I’m not sure why they are being used as a valid argument. There plenty of illegal things that people do every day. There are plenty of contract terms that get breached every day. There are plenty of rules and codes that people and companies fail to follow all the time.
I think it’s a valid question to ask if anyone is responsible for ensuring the laws are followed or the contract is adhered to. In this case, the player base would need to collect a large amount of data to prove anything. Is anyone reviewing the whole data set from Kabam periodically to ensure accurate drops?
Again, I’m not suspecting or concerned about any intentional manipulation, I’m just curious. Saying “they wouldn’t because it’s illegal” is fairly meaningless if there is no actual oversight to ensure compliance.
I don’t expect a clear response on this from Kabam if it’s handled internally. I was just pointing out what I think is a valid question and some arguments that don’t make sense.
I’m more curious if there is anyone external that monitors this at all. “If” Kabam were to intentionally alter rates, an internal person overseeing it doesn’t matter.
I think the OP was asking if anyone outside Kabam ever monitors this stuff. It sounds like the answer is no. The only way it would get looked at is if someone had enough evidence to get a lawyer to take the case to court which is unlikely.
When you literally make the game and make all the rules, cheating is completely nonsensical. If Kabam wanted to make a different tier of champion and make them rarer, they could just do so. And in fact, they did so: that's literally what the star ratings are: different rarity champs with different strengths and different rarities in crystals that contain multiple rarities.
And for what gain? What benefit does Kabam receive if players don’t get the champions they want from crystals that have finite availability like the class selector crystals from Necropolis? These aren’t things that can be bought with money. There’s literally no upside to Kabam for doing that.
It’s a simple cost/benefit analysis for Kabam and it makes no sense to risk that kind of money and bad press for no benefit.
And the incentive would be to encourage spending on the chase without delivering to encourage more spending. If Kabam says a crystal had a 10% drop rate for the top prize, more people would buy it than if they said it had a .01% chance.
If it was advertised as 10% but actually had a .01% I’d bet people would buy more thinking the odds are in their favor to get the top prize.
Saying there is no incentive doesn’t make sense to me. Saying the risk/reward isn’t there for a company is interesting. I don’t know what the risk is. Would it be a fine? A court ordered refund? Or could they just send out more crystals with the right drop rates with no financial consequence?
And that is assuming they were caught. If nobody external is watching, how would they get caught and who would impose financial consequences?
(Disclaimer for all my posts in this thread: I don’t think Kabam is doing this at all. I just think it’s an interesting conversation.)
There ARE laws preventing them from falsely disclosing information. Not to mention contractual obligations and relationships they've maintained for a decade.
So what you're saying is that when people demanded odds disclosures, and the app stores required odds disclosures for certain lootboxes, this was bad because it created an incentive to defraud.
Originally, Kabam did not disclose odds at all. They only started doing so when app stores changed their rules to require such odds disclosures. So for the entire history of the game until that happened, Kabam could not manipulate players in this way. Left to their own devices, they probably would have never published odds, and thus would have never had the ability to encourage more spending by lying about drop odds.
The people demanding odds disclosures are, by your argument creating opportunities for fraud that did not originally exist, and left to their own devices Kabam appeared to have no desire to pursue.
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=b329d767-56e6-4c9a-8897-e5d3fc32a81f
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/loot-box-disclosure-fines-are-a-joke-this-week-in-business
Fun latin: