**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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I understand that it's the distribution that's weighted and not the number generation. That's a nuance that I think is more important than a blackjack analogy. Then again, trolls are gonna troll regardless of what is explained.
On top of that I'm guessing if you opened that many crystals, you open a lot of crystals in general. You're mentioning this particular run of bad luck, assuming you are remembering it precisely (even one 6* or 7* anywhere reduces these odds substantially). How many times has this happened out of all the crystals you've opened, ever? If a player opens this kind of volume of crystals over and over again, eventually they will get this kind of streak of bad luck. The odds of you seeing this kind of bad luck this one time is one in 85. But the odds of you having ever seen it depend on how much crystals you open, and if you open a lot, the odds of seeing it are much higher.
I have played the game a long time and it does sometimes vary but very rarely, and I mean very rarely does opening a lot of crystals result in me getting something of value shall we say.
On the other hand in hindsight of said moan, I as do we all love this game, or we wouldn’t be here. It has its downfalls albeit opinion based, but my god is it not one hell of a game!
Also idk what’s happening with quotes, my apologies.
No one can prove the crystals are "absolutely random" because there is no such thing. But we can demonstrate that they follow the expected distribution for the expected odds within the statistical margin for error.
For example, there's the theory that says that people who spend more get better drops. I analyzed COWhale's crystal opening streams and the evidence shows that to within the statistical margin for error, he got the drops you'd expect if his crystals obeyed the known drop odds for those crystals.
There's the theory that says Kabam manipulates arena crystals to cause them to have lower drop rates just prior to big sales days. I have several years of arena crystal data that shows if they do that, the effect is astronomically low, enough to be impossible to notice, and impossible for Kabam to profit from.
There's of course the theory that says Kabam rigs crystals to weight them away from the "better" champs and towards the weaker ones. This has been demonstrated to be false many, many times, most publicly with the Cinematic crystal from a few years back. The Cinematic crystal was also highly instructive as to how conspiratorial minds work. Once it was established that in fact all available data suggested that the stronger champs were showing up just as often as the weaker ones, the conspiracy shifted to claim that Kabam was actually weighting that crystal towards the stronger defenders, to make life difficult for players. Because of course.
Not only have I tested crystal randomness in terms of things like which champs drop more or less often, I even calculated how many pulls it would take, on average, for a player to pull at least one of every champ in the featured crystal, which is dependent on the relative odds of all champs in the crystal. If those odds are exactly identical, the number is about 91. And that turns out to be, on average, about the number it takes to get every champ in the crystal across large numbers of openings. That is an alternate statistical test of the relative drop odds of that crystal, separate from watching individual drops.
And while I'm the most prominent random crystal tester at this point, I am not the only person to have tested crystal drop odds in the history of the game. Many others have tested and found nothing. It takes so much effort for so little return that no one except me really does this any more. The people capable of doing this have simply moved on, as they probably should have. It isn't worth their time any more.
This whole "its just their word against ours so no one can be right" is itself crystal conspiracy nonsense. Odds can be tested. I can't prove a crystal drops 6* champs exactly twelve percent of the time. But I can prove it doesn't drop them 20% of the time or 6% of the time to within a high order of probability. There's no way to prove something is actually random and follows a certain drop probability with zero margin for error, but you can rule out other possibilities. And most of them have been ruled out.
There's also no way to audit the game in a meaningful way. People are thinking of either slot machine type audits, or ISO-style process audits. Slot machines are audited in very specific ways because they are physical machines. Once you confirm a slot machine has been built to a certain standard, you can verify it hasn't been tampered with after the fact. You cannot tamper-proof an online video game. It would be trivial to have auditors audit something that would never be used or be swapped out the day they left. And ISO audits presume a certain level of cooperation. If a business intends to deceive an ISO auditor that's not difficult to do at all. The presumption is that no one would spend more money to defraud an audit than it would cost to come into compliance. But that would not be true for a criminal enterprise. If Kabam was intent on defrauding its customer base as a foundational business practice, no process audit is going to catch them in the act. If that were the case, we wouldn't need the police to investigate organized crime. We'd just audit them.
An audit might catch mistakes. But you have to trust both the company and the auditor to catch those. An audit cannot catch conspiracies.
https://blogs.mtdv.me/blog/posts/rng-evaluation
People that spend money tend to open more, which means more chances.
If Kabam actually wanted to make, say, Bullseye drop less often than any other champ, they could simply make the drop odds do that by changing the weights. That's what featured crystals do explicitly. But Kabam says they do not do that for the normal crystals. If they are lying about it, that would be fraud, an actual crime. So some people believe Kabam manipulates the RNG instead of the weights in some deluded belief that this is how they "get away" with it.
One of two things will happen, both good (for you). Either you will catch the game skewing the odds of the crystals in an astronomically unlikely way beyond what's statistically possible which would validate your suspicions, or you'll start getting "something of value" at the statistically predictable rate which would be better than what you think you're getting now and improve your outlook on your luck.
You’re complaining about 6 stars?
I pulled the worst champion from the Titan pool not once but twice in the same damn opening. On top of that, her dupe is practically worthless.
I once put a microscope to a basketball and, wouldn't you know it, those are flat too