That is incorrect... every time you roll a dice you have a 1 in 6 chance of getting a 1 but when you role them consecutively you multiply those chances so 1 in 6 becomes one in 36 chances that you have to avoid rolling a 1... multiply that out the chances of avoiding rolling a one is one in 8,082 decillion ...
NO YOU ARE INCORRECT.... EACH TIME IS A NEW 1 IN 6 CHANCE... THE PREVIOUS RESULTS PLAY NO PART... NEW EACH TIME......
Probability is called that because it doesn't denote mathematical certainty. If you're working off probability youre creating an expectation of a result by which the very definition must be uncertain.
Ergo: no.
Just take what the damn chest gives you and be happy.
Because if it is truly random then how is it that after over 50 runs through the teir 2 catalyst I can fill up every class catalyst except for 1... the one I need... if it's truly random why haven't I gotten a single teir 2 mystic catalyst but filled every other class?
FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT IS 100% TRULY RANDOM......
what you have previously gotten on any run does not in any way influence what you will get next time.....
each class has a 1 in 6 six chance of being pulled. everytime you run it there is a 1 in six chance....
if you roll a dice (6 options) it is entirely possible that you roll it 50 times and never get a 1 for example... it is also possible that you roll a 5 40 times.... both are unlikely examples and would indicate a particular streak of good or bad luck depending on what result it is you want but both are entirely and equally possible.
this is the joys of 100% random......
Normally I'd agree it's random but as soon as I hit needing less then 2k shards for final t4tech shards it refuses to give me any
I am talking about the odds of rolling the dice 50 times and not getting a 1 in any of those rolls... it is possible but the odds are soo against that outcome that you are more likely to get struck by lightning than what I'm describing... and the only reason I'm pointing this out is to show the game is rigged...
The game is not rigged. The computer doesn't take into account what Cat you want when it generates an outcome.
As was mentioned, it's a separate outcome generated each time you open a Crystal.
You had a bad roll. Not outside the realm of possibilities with RNG. It's a 17% chance each time you roll. That leaves an 83% chance unfavorable. Not hard to understand, and it doesn't mean someone is controlling your Cats. Lol.
Actually the odds just on running through the quest 50 times with one out of 7 outcomes not occurring is 0.(add 47 zeroes here) 7 % or if you prefer me to literally write it out... 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000007% with a few numbers after the seven if you really want to be precise... but that is only on it happening during one quest not on multiple dates... which decreases the odds exponentially... math is so fun right? Lol
1÷7 = 0.142857 (14.3%) chance of getting what you want
Take 14.3% and divide it by 50 and then you get 0.00286= 0.286% (0.143÷50=0.00286)
Just about 3 in a 1000 chance
The odds of avoiding one out of seven outcomes is six out of seven. The odds of that happening fifty times in a row is (6/7)^50 = 0.000449, or about 0.045%. 4.5 out of ten thousand.
My guess is over a hundred thousand players run this event, given that over a hundred thousand players do enough activity to rank in the basic arena and there are over a million active players based on the rocket button stats. Statistically speaking, there's probably over a hundred players that have seen this string of events happen within the last year.
It does not matter on what days this sequence occurs in.
So let's concede that your calculation is correct... what are the odds that 3 of those players are the same person? Because I know for a fact ( I think it's more but I'm being generous) that this has happened to me 3 times in less than 7 months of play time... so with about 52 of those events each year means that generously speaking 270 players each year have this happen how likely is it to happen 3 times to one player?
So let's concede that your calculation is correct... what are the odds that 3 of those players are the same person? Because I know for a fact ( I think it's more but I'm being generous) that this has happened to me 3 times in less than 7 months of play time... so with about 52 of those events each year means that generously speaking 270 players each year have this happen how likely is it to happen 3 times to one player?
Honestly, the odds are very low. However, in my experience, and that experience is substantial, when an MMO player claims to have seen an astronomically unlikely event, 99 times out of 100 it is an observation error. 1 time out of 100 it is a bug. Those odds make it difficult to take someone's word for anything without some form of objectively recorded data. Especially when it comes to statistical observations.
Did you know, rolling a dice 10 times, you have the same chance to roll
6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6,
As you are to rill
3, 5, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6
That's not true actually
Assuming we are talking about fair dice with the same chance to roll every face, that is actually correct. In both cases the odds are about one out of sixty million, or (1/6)^10. There are exactly 60,466,176 ways to roll a six sided die ten times, and every single sequence has the same chance of occurring: one in 60,466,176.
It is, of course, much harder to roll ten sixes as it is to roll three threes, two ones, two fives, two sixes, and a four. But that's because there are a lot of ways to roll three threes, two ones, two fives, two sixes, and a four. There's only one way to roll 3, 5, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6. The same number of ways there are to roll 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6.
Comments
NO YOU ARE INCORRECT.... EACH TIME IS A NEW 1 IN 6 CHANCE... THE PREVIOUS RESULTS PLAY NO PART... NEW EACH TIME......
6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6,
As you are to rill
3, 5, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6
That's not true actually
Ergo: no.
Just take what the damn chest gives you and be happy.
Normally I'd agree it's random but as soon as I hit needing less then 2k shards for final t4tech shards it refuses to give me any
As was mentioned, it's a separate outcome generated each time you open a Crystal.
You had a bad roll. Not outside the realm of possibilities with RNG. It's a 17% chance each time you roll. That leaves an 83% chance unfavorable. Not hard to understand, and it doesn't mean someone is controlling your Cats. Lol.
The odds of avoiding one out of seven outcomes is six out of seven. The odds of that happening fifty times in a row is (6/7)^50 = 0.000449, or about 0.045%. 4.5 out of ten thousand.
My guess is over a hundred thousand players run this event, given that over a hundred thousand players do enough activity to rank in the basic arena and there are over a million active players based on the rocket button stats. Statistically speaking, there's probably over a hundred players that have seen this string of events happen within the last year.
It does not matter on what days this sequence occurs in.
Honestly, the odds are very low. However, in my experience, and that experience is substantial, when an MMO player claims to have seen an astronomically unlikely event, 99 times out of 100 it is an observation error. 1 time out of 100 it is a bug. Those odds make it difficult to take someone's word for anything without some form of objectively recorded data. Especially when it comes to statistical observations.
Assuming we are talking about fair dice with the same chance to roll every face, that is actually correct. In both cases the odds are about one out of sixty million, or (1/6)^10. There are exactly 60,466,176 ways to roll a six sided die ten times, and every single sequence has the same chance of occurring: one in 60,466,176.
It is, of course, much harder to roll ten sixes as it is to roll three threes, two ones, two fives, two sixes, and a four. But that's because there are a lot of ways to roll three threes, two ones, two fives, two sixes, and a four. There's only one way to roll 3, 5, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6. The same number of ways there are to roll 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6.