Forget About Pulling 4* from PHC, here is proof !!!!

tufan_1974tufan_1974 Member Posts: 952 ★★★
in General Discussion
youtube.com/watch?v=KtgL2CvyIkM
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Comments

  • MattScottMattScott Member Posts: 587 ★★
    Yep. Worse odds than i thought. 91.5% for 2 Star 8% for 3 Star. And 0.5% for 4 Star.
  • DJRipsterDJRipster Member Posts: 169 ★
    I'd really like to see this change in someway... At least allow Uncollected to trade PHC shards for GMC shards

    There is no incentive in grinding and collecting PHC with these kind of drop rates
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  • DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Member Posts: 2,785 ★★★★★
    will-o-wisp wrote: »
    That doesn't prove anything ... Just bad luck.

    https://sciencing.com/meaning-sample-size-5988804.html

    @DNA3000 is the expert on this stuff, but the above video's margin for error being around 2-2.25% is believable
  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Member Posts: 1,200 ★★★
    This is news?
  • CFreeCFree Member Posts: 491 ★★
    DTMelodicMetal wrote: »
    will-o-wisp wrote: »
    That doesn't prove anything ... Just bad luck.

    https://sciencing.com/meaning-sample-size-5988804.html

    @DNA3000 is the expert on this stuff, but the above video's margin for error being around 2-2.25% is believable

    Doesn’t make much sense to me given that this is the opening of crystals governed by RNG and not a poll. Can you address this distinction?

  • Eelnats1Eelnats1 Member Posts: 66 ★
    I've had 4* Hyperion and 4* dommanu out of premium crystals.
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  • CFreeCFree Member Posts: 491 ★★
    Masuarao wrote: »
    When you have a large sample size, the actual set unknown chance is reflected by the results. Hence his rates are not too far from actual rates.
    So if he were to open another 2000 crystals, you would expect the results to be within the margin of error of 2.24%?
  • Darkstar4387Darkstar4387 Member Posts: 2,145 ★★★
    It's all about luck, one person's luck will differ from another person's luck. One can pull a bunch in a short time and then have no luck after for awhile then get lucky.

    Another won't have any luck at all and get **** pulls all the time so this one sample doesn't really prove anything except that his luck was low and there's a small chance to get one, really its all about rng.

    Since the Christmas event I've pulled some out of phc, moon kinght, wolverine, wolverine x23 dupe, black bolt, storm, wolverine, captain marvel, and just the other day I opened 2 and got medsua.

    So it's definitely possible to pull them just be aware that it's all about luck you either have it or you don't and you can go long stretches without pulling one or any at all.
  • Crimsontide1616Crimsontide1616 Member Posts: 303 ★★
    I started tracking my 4 star pulls from phc's . I'm currently on a streak of 323 PHCs without a 4 star. Was 57 before that
  • NastyEfnNateNastyEfnNate Member Posts: 551 ★★
    People are actually defending the drop rate? SMH
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  • Darkstar4387Darkstar4387 Member Posts: 2,145 ★★★
    NastyEfnNate wrote: »
    People are actually defending the drop rate? SMH

    Not at all it's just some people have more luck than others, you can go 50+ without pulling any or months without pulling any it really depends in the person and regardless of a low percentage some people still get lucky and pull many out of phc
  • DingaloDingalo Member Posts: 355 ★
    Guys... I play more hours a day than I sleep, and I haven't pulled a 4* since December 2016.

    I gave up believing a LOOOONG time ago.
  • BahamutBahamut Member Posts: 2,307 ★★★★
    Dingalo wrote: »
    Guys... I play more hours a day than I sleep, and I haven't pulled a 4* since December 2016.

    I gave up believing a LOOOONG time ago.

    Completely off topic: I read this and immediately thought of Sans
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,566 ★★★★★
    JK171386 wrote: »
    So.....should i start playing the lottery then??

    2q0n4fq1rno6.png

    Nice roll.
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  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,566 ★★★★★
    I find they come and go for me. I'm on an off spell. Haven't had a 4* in a while, and my last two 4* Crystals were older Dups, MMN and YJ. They roll how they roll. In terms of the topic, those results are pretty consistent with past estimations and results. It's rare RNG. We could roll 5 in 10 or none in 1000. It's just how they land.
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  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,566 ★★★★★
    Grats on the Sparky. My last one was Quake. Not mad. Lol
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  • KestrelleKestrelle Member Posts: 441 ★★
    It's random. I went a couple months with no 4*, then pulled three in a week
  • Icecold2099Icecold2099 Member Posts: 577 ★★★
    I pulled a 4* champ from about 50 phc's. Then I pulled another 4*. After 5 more phc's. It's all luck based. They're basically free crystals so I'll take a 4* champ every once in a while for free.
  • Brew_SwayneBrew_Swayne Member Posts: 500 ★★
    I've pulled four 4* from PHC in the last week. Have opened maybe 30 in that period. I've also gone a couple months without pulling a single 4* from them. I also opened a batch of 50 at one time and got none.

    It's luck. Dumb friggin luck.
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