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Cavalier crystals - then and now

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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    edited May 2019
    In any event, this is why I don't get into calculating probability with RNG. You can calculate yourself into a headspin, but with RNG, you can pull the same thing 2, 3, 4 times in a row. Especially with a Drop Rate of 17%. You can use the Mathematical findings on rolling a die to calcualte the probability, but the results will still show it happening more in some places and less in others. This is just one point that I will have to leave because I don't have the energy to dispute the "Math is not wrong." counter.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Yet it happens often, so the odds aren't as accurate as on paper. That's because there's a randomness that can't be explained by Mathematics. We can analyze it after the fact, and we can try to predict it, but how it lands is one of six ways, and that's determined by that randomness.

    “The odds aren’t as accurate as on paper” This doesn’t make any sense - It happens as often as it is supposed to happen based on infinity openings. When you are opening 4 AG at once, there are 1296 possible outcomes. Out of those outcomes there is only once that it comes up exactly skill,skill,skill,skill and 1295 it is not. It is exactly the same as dice principles. It just seems like it happens more here because people post these types of things more but in reality this is exactly how this works.

    You're not opening 4 at once. You're opening one, then one, then one, then one. Each opening is a 1/6 chance at being a Skill. The chances are exactly 1/6, separately.
    I’m pretty sure you can open them all at once if you have them. Even if you can’t, it makes no difference. If you are opening them one at a time or all at once it is the same - 1/1296 times on average it will come up 4 skill in a row BEFORE YOU OPEN THE FIRST ONE. Obviously your chances on one crystal doesn’t change from crystal to crystal. If you do not understand this then maybe you should take a stats course because this is the best way I can explain it and you continue to refuse to accept basic statistic principles. You should just stop really, it is getting kind of embarrassing for you even if you can’t see it.
    Yes but even when you open them all at once, it's still 10 separate outcomes at 17%.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    It's not embaraasing at all. I'm trying to make a point, and you're not getting it because you are adamant that everything is within the Mathematical probability.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    You're looking at two different perspectives. I'm not arguing the calculations. I'm arguing that you can't predict the unpredictable, and there is a difference between overall probability and individual outcomes. If it's so rare of a probability, then how do we see so many individual results of multiples? It's because of the randomness of it, based on a 1/6 chance everytime. Not based on the cumulative probability of multiples. Each outcome is not swayed by the probability of the previous one. I honestly don't have much energy to debate this anymore because it's really a difference of schools of thought.
  • Mr_PlatypusMr_Platypus Member Posts: 2,779 ★★★★★
    .
    GroundedWisdom said:

    You're looking at two different perspectives. I'm not arguing the calculations. I'm arguing that you can't predict the unpredictable, and there is a difference between overall probability and individual outcomes. If it's so rare of a probability, then how do we see so many individual results of multiples? It's because of the randomness of it, based on a 1/6 chance everytime. Not based on the cumulative probability of multiples. Each outcome is not swayed by the probability of the previous one. I honestly don't have much energy to debate this anymore because it's really a difference of schools of thought.

    It’s more because people don’t come here to complain about getting 1 of each class, they come to complain about getting 4 of the same lol
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    Mr_Platypus said:

    .

    GroundedWisdom said:

    You're looking at two different perspectives. I'm not arguing the calculations. I'm arguing that you can't predict the unpredictable, and there is a difference between overall probability and individual outcomes. If it's so rare of a probability, then how do we see so many individual results of multiples? It's because of the randomness of it, based on a 1/6 chance everytime. Not based on the cumulative probability of multiples. Each outcome is not swayed by the probability of the previous one. I honestly don't have much energy to debate this anymore because it's really a difference of schools of thought.

    It’s more because people don’t come here to complain about getting 1 of each class, they come to complain about getting 4 of the same lol
    It's the amount it occurs I was looking at. Lol.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Mr_Platypus said:

    .

    GroundedWisdom said:

    You're looking at two different perspectives. I'm not arguing the calculations. I'm arguing that you can't predict the unpredictable, and there is a difference between overall probability and individual outcomes. If it's so rare of a probability, then how do we see so many individual results of multiples? It's because of the randomness of it, based on a 1/6 chance everytime. Not based on the cumulative probability of multiples. Each outcome is not swayed by the probability of the previous one. I honestly don't have much energy to debate this anymore because it's really a difference of schools of thought.

    It’s more because people don’t come here to complain about getting 1 of each class, they come to complain about getting 4 of the same lol
    It's the amount it occurs I was looking at. Lol.
    So you have access to the game data files and can see how many players have pulled 4 in a row skill?
    That specifically? No. It was an example. I was making a point. You either don't get what I'm saying, or you don't agree. Which is fine. We can move on.
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    You're not even making an effort to understand what I'm saying, and now you've resorted to making personal digs. You keep coming back with the same rederick about probability calculations, which I never even debated, and you're not looking at what I said. Perhaps if you could stop preaching about Math for a second, you could see my point. Doubtful, for the fundamental reason I don't engage in these debates when discussing RNG. "The Math is never wrong!" is the only response people have, when I'm not even saying the Math is wrong. What I'm saying is no matter how many calculations you make, you can't account for the randomness of each roll. You can engage in complex calculations on the probability of rolling multiples, but that doesn't account for the fact that it's possible and random where it occurs. By all means, keep asserting that I don't understand The Holy Grail of Mathematics. I'm done trying to explain my perspective.
  • Ashok1504Ashok1504 Member Posts: 42 ★


    You're right I opened 3 crystals and I didn't get any 5* either. Hate it when I don't get any 😤
  • FingfangfoomfanesFingfangfoomfanes Member Posts: 1,102 ★★★
    http://www.knowtherng.com/are-random-number-generators.html
  • Jim0172Jim0172 Member Posts: 85 ★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    The probability may be derived through Mathematics, but the process at which these occurrences are happening is separate and based on a 1/6 chance.

    The formula he provided earlier in the thread was to calculate the cumulative probability based on independent/separate occurrences.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 37,691 ★★★★★
    Jim0172 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    The probability may be derived through Mathematics, but the process at which these occurrences are happening is separate and based on a 1/6 chance.

    The formula he provided earlier in the thread was to calculate the cumulative probability based on independent/separate occurrences.
    Yes. While people are calculating the probability, the Crystal will roll and land wherever it wants to. The Math can't predict the randomness of it. That was my point. Yet somehow it tunred into people saying I don't understand Math because it is the absolute certainty. Calculating the probability of rolling multiples is useless because the Crystal will roll and land one of six ways everytime, with an equal chance. People aren't getting what I'm saying because "Math and stuff....".
  • Kabam ZibiitKabam Zibiit Administrator Posts: 7,033
    Hey there everyone, we appreciate the discussion and feedback here, but things are starting to go a bit off topic. In light of this and the fact that OP's question was already answered, this thread will now be closed.
This discussion has been closed.