**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.

Cavalier crystals - then and now

13

Comments

  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
    The RNG is a way for us to gauge what we want, yes. For example, we can say we want to take a chance at 11%. The probability is also another way we can determine what we want. For example, if the Featured Crystal has 8 Champs we would be happy with, the probability of getting something we like would be 8/24 (33.3%). However, your chances don't go down if you open one, or 10. Each Crystal is the same chance. If the odds are 11%, one Crystal is 11%. If you open 10, that's 10 chances at 11% each. You can open those 10, and the next one will still be 11%.
    I meant your holistic chance, not the individual RNG.

    For example, as previously said, you have about an 80% chance at getting a 5 or 6 star out of 12 chances. But after opening 10 and not getting anything you may have wanted, you would then be recalculating before opening again, and your chances of getting something "good" have gone down to 23% for these two crystals. This is essentially a way of calculating risk. It doesn't change the fact that each crystal as an 12% chance, it just let's you know your odds before embarking on a large investment of units.

    Source: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th Edition, Walpole and Myers :)
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
    The RNG is a way for us to gauge what we want, yes. For example, we can say we want to take a chance at 11%. The probability is also another way we can determine what we want. For example, if the Featured Crystal has 8 Champs we would be happy with, the probability of getting something we like would be 8/24 (33.3%). However, your chances don't go down if you open one, or 10. Each Crystal is the same chance. If the odds are 11%, one Crystal is 11%. If you open 10, that's 10 chances at 11% each. You can open those 10, and the next one will still be 11%.
    I meant your holistic chance, not the individual RNG.

    For example, as previously said, you have about an 80% chance at getting a 5 or 6 star out of 12 chances. But after opening 10 and not getting anything you may have wanted, you would then be recalculating before opening again, and your chances of getting something "good" have gone down to 23% for these two crystals. This is essentially a way of calculating risk. It doesn't change the fact that each crystal as an 12% chance, it just let's you know your odds before embarking on a large investment of units.

    Source: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th Edition, Walpole and Myers :)
    That's where I think the confusion came from on my part because if a 5* or a 6* is what you're going for, it's a 12% (11% and 1%) each time. While you may increase your number of chances, the Drop Rate doesn't increase. Which is why I was specifying that each roll is a separate occurrence. Your chance may increase if you buy 12 Crystals, as in you have 12 chances, but the Drop Rate will be 12% each time. (11 and 1 respectively)
  • Praetor_Zwei153Praetor_Zwei153 Posts: 56 ★
    Put your tin foil hat on like seatin then maybe you'll get something good. Reflect those trashcan rays straight back to kabam hq
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    So each Crystal is a separately-generated outcome at 12%, each time. No matter if you buy 12 or 1.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Lormif said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    I’m sorry but you are just wrong - mathematics account for everything within RNG. Casinos base their entire business model around this fact. Opinion doesn’t matter about this I’m afraid - it is comparable to people believing in lucky charms while gambling.
    You missed the point of what I was saying, as I explained it to DNA.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Which is a debate in and of itself. Some would argue that Mathematics could explain everything in the Universe. Lol. I'm not about to get into that debate here.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,657 Guardian
    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Lormif said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    True random doesnt exist in any format. Your brain has a sequence system as well.
    Computers can actually pull off random better then humans as unless coded have no biases to effect it.

    True random exists, just not in anything man made
    Name an example of something that is "truly random."
    The big bang.
    Not sure if this is a joke, or just nonsensical. Saying the Big Bang is random is like saying yellow is random.
  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
    The RNG is a way for us to gauge what we want, yes. For example, we can say we want to take a chance at 11%. The probability is also another way we can determine what we want. For example, if the Featured Crystal has 8 Champs we would be happy with, the probability of getting something we like would be 8/24 (33.3%). However, your chances don't go down if you open one, or 10. Each Crystal is the same chance. If the odds are 11%, one Crystal is 11%. If you open 10, that's 10 chances at 11% each. You can open those 10, and the next one will still be 11%.
    I meant your holistic chance, not the individual RNG.

    For example, as previously said, you have about an 80% chance at getting a 5 or 6 star out of 12 chances. But after opening 10 and not getting anything you may have wanted, you would then be recalculating before opening again, and your chances of getting something "good" have gone down to 23% for these two crystals. This is essentially a way of calculating risk. It doesn't change the fact that each crystal as an 12% chance, it just let's you know your odds before embarking on a large investment of units.

    Source: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th Edition, Walpole and Myers :)
    That's where I think the confusion came from on my part because if a 5* or a 6* is what you're going for, it's a 12% (11% and 1%) each time. While you may increase your number of chances, the Drop Rate doesn't increase. Which is why I was specifying that each roll is a separate occurrence. Your chance may increase if you buy 12 Crystals, as in you have 12 chances, but the Drop Rate will be 12% each time. (11 and 1 respectively)
    Couldn't agree more. It's important for people to keep in mind that it's all a chance, and nothing is ever guaranteed. All you can ever really calculate is your risk, if you choose to do so, and make your choices accordingly. Never invest what you aren't prepared to lose, whether it's cold hard cash, or units of the contest.
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    Lvernon15 said:

    The thing with this is, if you ask who’s had bad luck people who have will speak up much more than those who haven’t

    That’s what statisticians call a convenience sample. It’s kinda the worst sample you can have, and is almost always biased toward whatever point you are trying to prove with data. That’s why people get mad about drop rates. They only see people’s wins or ultimate losses. Nothing really in between.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Sixshot1 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
    The RNG is a way for us to gauge what we want, yes. For example, we can say we want to take a chance at 11%. The probability is also another way we can determine what we want. For example, if the Featured Crystal has 8 Champs we would be happy with, the probability of getting something we like would be 8/24 (33.3%). However, your chances don't go down if you open one, or 10. Each Crystal is the same chance. If the odds are 11%, one Crystal is 11%. If you open 10, that's 10 chances at 11% each. You can open those 10, and the next one will still be 11%.
    I meant your holistic chance, not the individual RNG.

    For example, as previously said, you have about an 80% chance at getting a 5 or 6 star out of 12 chances. But after opening 10 and not getting anything you may have wanted, you would then be recalculating before opening again, and your chances of getting something "good" have gone down to 23% for these two crystals. This is essentially a way of calculating risk. It doesn't change the fact that each crystal as an 12% chance, it just let's you know your odds before embarking on a large investment of units.

    Source: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th Edition, Walpole and Myers :)
    That's where I think the confusion came from on my part because if a 5* or a 6* is what you're going for, it's a 12% (11% and 1%) each time. While you may increase your number of chances, the Drop Rate doesn't increase. Which is why I was specifying that each roll is a separate occurrence. Your chance may increase if you buy 12 Crystals, as in you have 12 chances, but the Drop Rate will be 12% each time. (11 and 1 respectively)
    Couldn't agree more. It's important for people to keep in mind that it's all a chance, and nothing is ever guaranteed. All you can ever really calculate is your risk, if you choose to do so, and make your choices accordingly. Never invest what you aren't prepared to lose, whether it's cold hard cash, or units of the contest.
    Totally agree. That's why I have a backwards perspective on it. I look at the chance of not pulling what I want when I see that the outcome is not in my favor, and I consider the chance of not pulling what I want when I decide if I want to risk it or not. It makes the outcome more palatable.
  • Savio444Savio444 Posts: 1,781 ★★★★
    IKON said:

    Definitely agree, I opened 4 crystals today and didn't get a 5*. They've definitely rigged it.



  • GerbilGerbil Posts: 50 ★
    Kabam should add a category to the forum for crystal opening complaints... Not trying to be smug or a jerk or anything... I feel everyone's pain honestly. Thing is they'll never stop coming and the answers are always the same. Call the new category "Therapy Sessions"
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Gerbil said:

    Kabam should add a category to the forum for crystal opening complaints... Not trying to be smug or a jerk or anything... I feel everyone's pain honestly. Thing is they'll never stop coming and the answers are always the same. Call the new category "Therapy Sessions"

    It's inevitable. As long as people don't get what they wan't, they'll be suspicious.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Posts: 2,144 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Lormif said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    True random doesnt exist in any format. Your brain has a sequence system as well.
    Computers can actually pull off random better then humans as unless coded have no biases to effect it.

    True random exists, just not in anything man made
    Name an example of something that is "truly random."
    Yellow. Yellow is random.
  • SirmacoolSirmacool Posts: 389 ★★
    Even if the drop rates are 50% for a 6*. You could open 100 and never get one. Even 99%. That is the odds for every one you open. Could get that 1% every time.
    Same goes when you open 10 crystals and get half being 5 or 6*. You don’t complain when the odds are in your favor. Tell kabam to fix it because you got too many.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    DNA3000 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Lormif said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Verzz said:

    TheRealApoc said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    I’m sorry but you are just wrong - mathematics account for everything within RNG. Casinos base their entire business model around this fact. Opinion doesn’t matter about this I’m afraid - it is comparable to people believing in lucky charms while gambling.
    You missed the point of what I was saying, as I explained it to DNA.
    I didn’t miss the point - for some reason my post had to be approved before it showed up hours later. Anyways, we agree that it is 12% chance to get a 5/6* on a single cavalier pull
    Correct. What I meant about the Math not reflecting everything, I explained in the comment to DNA. People try to calculate the probability of, let's say pulling the same Champ twice or maybe 3 times, and go off into a spin. However, that probability doesn't account for the spontaneity of separate outcomes. The system doesn't take into consideration that you just pulled the same Champ. Each pull is an equal chance at the previous outcome. The probability may indicate that it's highly unlikely, but each Crystal is a separately-generated occurrence. You could pull the same thing 10 times in a row. Sometimes people confuse random with equal distribution, and that's not the case. There are trends and randomness that occur, which don't always coincide with probability. That's what I meant by the Math not adding up. It can be applied to anything, but it can't always give reasoning to why things like that happen. It can go any way when you open a Crystal, so long is that way is in the pool.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    The best example I can think of for this is the AGs. Happens all the time. People think they're rigged or bugged because they have multiples. Whether they can use them or not really doesn't factor into it. "I have 3 Skill, what are the chances I could pull another?". 17%. Same as the last one you pulled, and the one before that, and the one before that. We could calculate the probability of that happening, which would be a much smaller number, but each time you open one, you have a 17% shot at a Skill.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    The best example I can think of for this is the AGs. Happens all the time. People think they're rigged or bugged because they have multiples. Whether they can use them or not really doesn't factor into it. "I have 3 Skill, what are the chances I could pull another?". 17%. Same as the last one you pulled, and the one before that, and the one before that. We could calculate the probability of that happening, which would be a much smaller number, but each time you open one, you have a 17% shot at a Skill.

    Yep - opening AG is exactly the same as rolling a fair 6-sided die. In your example, each class has a 1/6 chance. But if we were to say, “what are the chances of opening 4 skill AG out of my next 4 AG?” the odds would be (1/6)^4 which is about 0.08%
    The difference is, the Crystals don't operate that way. They operate as separate outcomes. Know what I mean?
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    That's the difference I'm trying to highlight.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Yet it happens often, so the odds aren't as accurate as on paper. That's because there's a randomness that can't be explained by Mathematics. We can analyze it after the fact, and we can try to predict it, but how it lands is one of six ways, and that's determined by that randomness.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    edited May 2019
    You could try rolling dice hundreds of times and try to find patterns in the multiples rolled in each sets of 10, or 100, but there would be no rhyme or reason to them.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Yet it happens often, so the odds aren't as accurate as on paper. That's because there's a randomness that can't be explained by Mathematics. We can analyze it after the fact, and we can try to predict it, but how it lands is one of six ways, and that's determined by that randomness.

    “The odds aren’t as accurate as on paper” This doesn’t make any sense - It happens as often as it is supposed to happen based on infinity openings. When you are opening 4 AG at once, there are 1296 possible outcomes. Out of those outcomes there is only once that it comes up exactly skill,skill,skill,skill and 1295 it is not. It is exactly the same as dice principles. It just seems like it happens more here because people post these types of things more but in reality this is exactly how this works.

    You're not opening 4 at once. You're opening one, then one, then one, then one. Each opening is a 1/6 chance at being a Skill. The chances are exactly 1/6, separately.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    The probability may be derived through Mathematics, but the process at which these occurrences are happening is separate and based on a 1/6 chance.
This discussion has been closed.