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Cavalier crystals - then and now

24

Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Probability would be a better word. The RNG odds are not the same as probability.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Drop Rates are the odds that the pools are programmed to. Calculating the probability of something happening is different.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Then again, I could be wrong. It's happened before. Lol.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    Probability would be a better word. The RNG odds are not the same as probability.

    They are not the same but you can use the RNG odds to calculate probability
    That depends on the sample size you're using. Even before the Drop Rates were posted, Players analyzed their drops with significant enough batches.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Unless you meant as in calculating the probability of pulling a particular outcome, in which case I agree. We do it all the time. Lol.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    Unless you meant as in calculating the probability of pulling a particular outcome, in which case I agree. We do it all the time. Lol.

    Yes this is what I’m talking about.. the OP states that he went 0/12 for 5* and 6* which is approximately 21.6%
    Ah. Then I should really sit down and read more carefully when I get in from errands. I believe I just misunderstood what you were saying. Lol. I look at it from the other side. If the highest probability in the Crystal is a 3* at 50% and a 4* is 38%, that's not out of reason.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Each time you open one, there's an 88% chance it could NOT be a 5* or 6*.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    edited May 2019
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    Lol. Fair enough. I wasn't completely discrediting Mathematics. It is the foundation, after all. I just meant there is a randomness to it that varies from roll to roll that doesn't always factor in to the individual calculations, that people miss sometimes. The numbers are there, we can study them and calculate, but if someone comes in and pulls the same Champ or outcome, they think it's rigged. If someone pulls what they want, we call it lucky, if they don't then we call it unlucky. Each Crystal can go any way within the parameters of the Drop Rate, and it gets tricky for some to grasp when they start adding up their own pulls and relating them to each other as if they should reflect directly. For example, "I pulled Rhino 3/10 times.". The reality is, Rhino can come up with each pull because the system doesn't know you pulled him last time. It doesn't care to, or have to.
  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    Sixshot1 said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    That's actually exactly how it works. Math like that is a reliable way to determine your likelihood of getting a certain outcome before you commit.

    With that said, everytime you open a crystal, or 10, and don't get what you want, your chances of getting that 12% hit go down because you've taken out the unknown factor.

    TL:DR, the math is right, but OP had a 20% chance of getting unlucky and it happened. It's unfortunate, but that's RNG.
    The RNG is a way for us to gauge what we want, yes. For example, we can say we want to take a chance at 11%. The probability is also another way we can determine what we want. For example, if the Featured Crystal has 8 Champs we would be happy with, the probability of getting something we like would be 8/24 (33.3%). However, your chances don't go down if you open one, or 10. Each Crystal is the same chance. If the odds are 11%, one Crystal is 11%. If you open 10, that's 10 chances at 11% each. You can open those 10, and the next one will still be 11%.
  • G0311G0311 Posts: 913 ★★★

    We all go through different streaks of good luck and bad luck, but that doesn't mean something has changed.

    Players will never get this, sadly.
    Agreed, I started to have a downward luck streak but then it went back up. RNG is unpredictable. My best advice for OP is to cool down on them for a while or try the featured calvalier. it's basically a slot machine, got to know when to back off.
  • Dexman1349Dexman1349 Posts: 3,060 ★★★★★
    The drop rates posted are what they are. I don't believe people are disputing those. For Cavalier crystals, that means it is a literal coin flip as to whether you get a 3* champ or a 4/5/6*. It is not unreasonable to expect about half of your openings to NOT be 3* champs, because that's what the drop rates tell us.

    IMO, one source of contention with the game is the fact that it commonly performs differently than what the Admins & in-game descriptions says it should. The term "working as intended" is thrown around a lot when the players start reporting fluctuations and only after significant push-back from the player base do we finally find out there is actually a bug that needs to be fixed. Some bugs go months without being detected because they are harder to prove or less commonly experienced (i.e. Angela's sig ability not working). Bugs and changes are frequently added when there is nothing obvious to trigger them (i.e. the disappearance of the energy help request timer).

    All we as a player base can do is review our own drops, compare with our friends and what we see online, and come up with our own anecdotal results. From there, we can continue asking the question and then take Kabam's word that the game is "working as intended". As the game continues to undergo frequent updates, each of which have bugs, along with the fixes to other bugs, we as a player base are less likely to take Kabam's word at face value.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian

    Each time you open one, there's an 88% chance it could NOT be a 5* or 6*.

    Yes, because (to oversimplify slightly) out of one hundred possible pulls 88 of them are 3* and 4*, and 12 of them are 5* or 6*. There are ten thousand possible ways to open two crystals (for every possible pull of the first one, there are one hundred possible pulls for the second one), and 7744 of them include two 3* or 4* champs, and 2256 of them include at least one 5* or 6*. There are a million ways to open three crystals, and 681,472 of them contain only 3* or 4* champs, and 318,528 contain at least one 5* or 6*.
    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    There's no generally agreed upon definition of "truly random." Online games use "random enough" generators. These are generators for which any reasonable amount of observation of the generated numbers offers no information useful to predicting future numbers, and there exists no statistical skew in the generated results that can be measured outside of that predicted by statistical variation.

    Computers can easily generate "random enough" number sequences. Random enough for computer simulations to be trustworthy and accurate. Random enough for cryptological purposes. Random enough for huge amounts of money to rely upon their unpredictable nature and spectral distributions. Certainly random enough for no game player playing an online game to prove the generated values show any signs of non-randomness.

    Even processes people claim to be "truly random" can't be proven to be "truly random." For example, random numbers generated from atmospheric noise cannot be proven to be non-deterministic: air molecules obey non-random laws of motion. What matters is not whether atmospheric noise is "truly random" but rather if it either contains statistical skews or is predictable. In both cases it is not, so it is "random enough."
  • Mitchell35Mitchell35 Posts: 1,897 ★★★★
    Lormif said:

    IKON said:

    Definitely agree, I opened 4 crystals today and didn't get a 5*. They've definitely rigged it.

    4 crystals in no way ensures you get a 5*

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    huh, this makes no sense. The the percentages on cav crystals have nothing to do with the champs in them. Each time you open a crystal that is your chance to get a specific * level.
    Whooooosh
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★

    Lormif said:

    IKON said:

    Definitely agree, I opened 4 crystals today and didn't get a 5*. They've definitely rigged it.

    4 crystals in no way ensures you get a 5*

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    huh, this makes no sense. The the percentages on cav crystals have nothing to do with the champs in them. Each time you open a crystal that is your chance to get a specific * level.
    Whooooosh
    He's not wrong. The percentage shown is what is possible everytime, not what is collectively possible for everyone. We're not all sharing some kind of limited pool. They are generated outcomes.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian

    The drop rates posted are what they are. I don't believe people are disputing those. For Cavalier crystals, that means it is a literal coin flip as to whether you get a 3* champ or a 4/5/6*. It is not unreasonable to expect about half of your openings to NOT be 3* champs, because that's what the drop rates tell us.

    IMO, one source of contention with the game is the fact that it commonly performs differently than what the Admins & in-game descriptions says it should. The term "working as intended" is thrown around a lot when the players start reporting fluctuations and only after significant push-back from the player base do we finally find out there is actually a bug that needs to be fixed. Some bugs go months without being detected because they are harder to prove or less commonly experienced (i.e. Angela's sig ability not working). Bugs and changes are frequently added when there is nothing obvious to trigger them (i.e. the disappearance of the energy help request timer).

    All we as a player base can do is review our own drops, compare with our friends and what we see online, and come up with our own anecdotal results. From there, we can continue asking the question and then take Kabam's word that the game is "working as intended". As the game continues to undergo frequent updates, each of which have bugs, along with the fixes to other bugs, we as a player base are less likely to take Kabam's word at face value.

    Kabam is frankly horrible at this, but it is also true that the playerbase isn't entirely blameless here either. The playerbase doesn't accept reasonable explanation for things even when they are almost certainly true, and they often don't even care about reasonable explanations. They blame Kabam for only fixing bugs that "hurt" players while allowing bugs that "help" Kabam to remain, when that's mostly projection: it is the playerbase that thinks anything that they like should be a feature, and anything they don't like should be considered a bug.

    I say "the playerbase" but that's not really true. It is the extremely tiny minority of vocal players for whom this is an issue. I think there's two really important things to keep in mind here. First, it is true that the ultimate responsibility for properly explaining and documenting the game is Kabams: the players don't have a "responsibility" to play nice here. However, it is also true that all of the vocal players combined, and I include myself in here, represent an almost insignificantly small percentage of the entire playerbase. All of us on the forums and the reddit combined are just one segment of the playerbase, and it would be a delusion to think we represent the whole of the playerbase. We don't. We aren't even close.

    If we create a hostile environment for Kabam to try to improve documentation and explanations, we encourage them to spend their time elsewhere. They have no obligation to satisfy our requirements or demands, because we aren't the whole playerbase. We have no responsibility to work with Kabam to improve the things we want, but they also have no specific need to focus on our concerns above all others. Together, we are a few thousand players. There's a million others that don't have our concerns, and would keep the game running just fine if all of us were no longer around.

    I have a specific perspective here: I try to explain things when I have either the knowledge or the background to do so. It is an entirely unentertaining thing to attempt to do, and I know for a fact most other players in a similar situation feel the same way, having some interactions with many of them in the past. It must be infinitely worse for the developers and the community reps to be constantly told they don't know what they are talking about when they attempt to communicate information about the game. Sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes they can't fully discuss everything they know. But the reactions I see are entirely disproportionate to that.

    We can say its their fault, but it doesn't matter whose fault it is. Either you want things to improve, or you don't. If you don't, it won't, and it doesn't matter if it is Kabam's fault. Because they need customers, but they don't need us. And 99.99% of their customer base doesn't care about what we care about.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Drooped2 said:

    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    True random doesnt exist in any format. Your brain has a sequence system as well.
    Computers can actually pull off random better then humans as unless coded have no biases to effect it.

    True random exists, just not in anything man made
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    Lormif said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    True random doesnt exist in any format. Your brain has a sequence system as well.
    Computers can actually pull off random better then humans as unless coded have no biases to effect it.

    True random exists, just not in anything man made
    Name an example of something that is "truly random."
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Lormif said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why?
    Because math is not most people's strong suit. We see people determining the world is flat based on their own observations. Because geometry is a kind of math.
    I think that's where we may fundamentally disagree. There are occurrences within a random system that Mathematics don't account for, IMO.
    Well, the way to side step that objection is to point out that the game servers use math to generate the crystal drops, and therefore they must beyond all doubt obey mathematical rules.

    I've played a lot of games where players have asserted that "math can't describe the game." Except the game runs on computers, which use math to determine everything that happens in the game. Actually, I've met game developers who deep down think this, as if Dumbledore wrote the toolchain that turns their Excel sheets into binary loadable modules and virtual file systems.
    The issue is more that computers cannot generate a truly random number. The generator is based on a predetermined sequence, therefore cannot be random.
    True random doesnt exist in any format. Your brain has a sequence system as well.
    Computers can actually pull off random better then humans as unless coded have no biases to effect it.

    True random exists, just not in anything man made
    Name an example of something that is "truly random."
    The big bang.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,244 ★★★★★
    In terms of RNG, I use the term pseudo-random. It's not completely random because it has parameters in the form of Drop Rates. However, it can go in any direction within those parameters and is not preset, so it's random each pull. Within that, of course.
  • EvisceratorEviscerator Posts: 350 ★★
    I just became cavilier yesterday. Im scared to use my hard-earned FTP units on these
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★

    I just became cavilier yesterday. Im scared to use my hard-earned FTP units on these

    6.2 is coming out soon, should probably save for that.
  • DshuDshu Posts: 1,503 ★★★★
    Just save yourself the disappointment and dont waste units on crystals. The drop rates are incredibly low for the cost of units. For every person that has great rng there are hundreds that will have the same disappointment you are feeling. Save your units for offers showing exactly what you will get rather than these joke crystals that only have a high rng of getting disappointment
This discussion has been closed.