Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
A month or so ago, I opened 3, 5* crystals. 2 of them were Magneto...
Two of my last three 6* champs were Nightcrawler. It happens.
Although, at least now I know the answer to the question what's worse than pulling 6* DPX. Awakening Nightcrawler does seem to be worse than that.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the game team incorrectly believes everything is working perfectly randomly.
Think: Hanlon’s Razor. Now that’s definitely mathematically possible.
Dr. Zola
It is impossible to prove the negative, that there's an absence of problems. However, I've spent enough time analyzing random drops to be able to eliminate pretty much all of the remotely credible conjectures about how it could be broken, with one exception (well, technically three different variations of one kind of problem: over-correlated results).
I don't just think the drops are random. I know they are random to within certain measurable limits. Once those measurable limits exceeded the limits of casual observation by two orders of magnitude, I stopped expending my time on something that would only convince people who would already be convinced by the data. What I've learned from studying randomness in games for quite a while is more data analysis doesn't convince more people. Beyond a critical threshold, more data analysis just compels people to hold onto their intuitive guesses even harder in opposition.
Some people say you would never know if the drops were broken unless you see the code. I know from experience that's not true. The people who think the drops are broken would not be convinced by the code. They would assert bugs could still exist outside the code, and in fact when all possible sources of software bugs are eliminated they will revert to claiming that the fundamental algorithms behind the random number generators cannot be "proven" to actually be random. Which is technically true, since randomness has no strict mathematical definition. You can't prove anything is "truly random" because there's no such thing as truly random: that phrase has no testable definition.
A month or so ago, I opened 3, 5* crystals. 2 of them were Magneto...
Two of my last three 6* champs were Nightcrawler. It happens.
Although, at least now I know the answer to the question what's worse than pulling 6* DPX. Awakening Nightcrawler does seem to be worse than that.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the game team incorrectly believes everything is working perfectly randomly.
Think: Hanlon’s Razor. Now that’s definitely mathematically possible.
Dr. Zola
It is impossible to prove the negative, that there's an absence of problems. However, I've spent enough time analyzing random drops to be able to eliminate pretty much all of the remotely credible conjectures about how it could be broken, with one exception (well, technically three different variations of one kind of problem: over-correlated results).
I don't just think the drops are random. I know they are random to within certain measurable limits. Once those measurable limits exceeded the limits of casual observation by two orders of magnitude, I stopped expending my time on something that would only convince people who would already be convinced by the data. What I've learned from studying randomness in games for quite a while is more data analysis doesn't convince more people. Beyond a critical threshold, more data analysis just compels people to hold onto their intuitive guesses even harder in opposition.
Some people say you would never know if the drops were broken unless you see the code. I know from experience that's not true. The people who think the drops are broken would not be convinced by the code. They would assert bugs could still exist outside the code, and in fact when all possible sources of software bugs are eliminated they will revert to claiming that the fundamental algorithms behind the random number generators cannot be "proven" to actually be random. Which is technically true, since randomness has no strict mathematical definition. You can't prove anything is "truly random" because there's no such thing as truly random: that phrase has no testable definition.
A month or so ago, I opened 3, 5* crystals. 2 of them were Magneto...
Two of my last three 6* champs were Nightcrawler. It happens.
Although, at least now I know the answer to the question what's worse than pulling 6* DPX. Awakening Nightcrawler does seem to be worse than that.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the game team incorrectly believes everything is working perfectly randomly.
Think: Hanlon’s Razor. Now that’s definitely mathematically possible.
Dr. Zola
It is impossible to prove the negative, that there's an absence of problems. However, I've spent enough time analyzing random drops to be able to eliminate pretty much all of the remotely credible conjectures about how it could be broken, with one exception (well, technically three different variations of one kind of problem: over-correlated results).
I don't just think the drops are random. I know they are random to within certain measurable limits. Once those measurable limits exceeded the limits of casual observation by two orders of magnitude, I stopped expending my time on something that would only convince people who would already be convinced by the data. What I've learned from studying randomness in games for quite a while is more data analysis doesn't convince more people. Beyond a critical threshold, more data analysis just compels people to hold onto their intuitive guesses even harder in opposition.
Some people say you would never know if the drops were broken unless you see the code. I know from experience that's not true. The people who think the drops are broken would not be convinced by the code. They would assert bugs could still exist outside the code, and in fact when all possible sources of software bugs are eliminated they will revert to claiming that the fundamental algorithms behind the random number generators cannot be "proven" to actually be random. Which is technically true, since randomness has no strict mathematical definition. You can't prove anything is "truly random" because there's no such thing as truly random: that phrase has no testable definition.
That’s fair.
What would convince you otherwise?
Dr. Zola
Statistically significant evidence. It isn't that I'm impossible to convince: I've found random generator errors in other games, and some of those were very subtle. But for a random generator error or other deliberate skew to be demonstrated, it must satisfy at least two criteria. First, it must generate statistically significant variations from normal random chance. And second, it must make testable predictions about how that behavior would show up in confirming tests.
The weird thing (weird to me anyway) about most claims about non-random drops is that they have to resort to stating that any results that don't match the theory are expected because the drops are still random enough that many situations won't match the theory. But then you can say anything about the drops. They are non-random except when they are.
I mention over-correlation. That's the case where one drop is more likely to be X than Y given that the prior drop (or some other past condition) is known. This is difficult to disprove because it requires a lot of data to reduce the margin for error, it is difficult to analyze from streamed openings (because when people open lots of crystals they tend to open them in batches of ten which blurs the result), and it is extremely time consuming to test alone. And every time I've mustered the energy to test it, the results always end up right on the margin of being just inside the margin of likelihood. If someone told me there was a bug somewhere, I would bet it was here, but I just can't prove it.
I have pulled a 4* Ghost Rider at least 3 times this month and just pulled a 5* Ghost Rider for the 3rd time and I am getting tired of it. It’s just not mathematically possible to keep pulling the same champion over and over - especially back to back. Very discouraging!
I pulled a 5 star cyclops Xavier institute 4 times in a row. I even submitted a ticket to understand the algorithm programmed into the crystal system (this was prior to the added champions and percentages). The level one representative just laid down a generic response. Ultimately, I abandoned the endeavor, because I left the rut. Seems you are in the same boat, but with a substantially better champion.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
McFin: exaggerates and says *it isn't mathematically possible* Community: uR dUmB iT iS pOSIbbLe
Exaggeration doesn't give people a blanket license to say anything they want without challenge. If I say I have the worst luck with crystal openings, I don't think anyone would assume I mean that literally, or was making a statement about all other players' openings. I think most people would assume I meant my results were so bad that the vast majority of other players would likely be getting better results, or that they would agree the drops were far below average. So saying that I'm literally not true would be missing the point.
However, if I then post my openings and they are in no way remotely unusual, it is entirely fair to question that statement even though it is an "exaggeration." It was an exaggeration but it was intended to imply a general idea that isn't generally agreed to be true.
When someone says something is mathematically impossible on the forums, most of the time they are attempting to imply that something is so rare that seeing it is noteworthy and possibly suggests the game is not as random as the developers imply. When those two ideas aren't actually true, it is entirely fair to attack the original characterization of impossibility.
I have pulled a 4* Ghost Rider at least 3 times this month and just pulled a 5* Ghost Rider for the 3rd time and I am getting tired of it. It’s just not mathematically possible to keep pulling the same champion over and over - especially back to back. Very discouraging!
Can I have that kind of R&G. I could use GR as 5*.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Do you ever reply where I dont have to scroll down to read your comments?
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
This answer is the best answer I've ever heard. And is exactly how it is. Random? Yes... Within the realms of your account.... therefore it is NOT random.
You got exactly what your account was supposed to get. Yes it sucks, yes it’s frustrating, but that’s this game. Sorry pulling back to back to back champs definitely blows.
Like someone else above I’ve pulled Nightcrawler three out of the last five 5* crystals.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
A couple of things...
The fact that it took a lot of discussion to answer my question is helpful. That suggests to me there may be a bit of wiggle room around “randomness.”
I think most players assume random means things are the same, equivalent “random,” across all facets of the game, at all times and for all players unless explicitly stated otherwise. That’s layman’s terminology, but deviations that aren’t explicitly disclosed would probably mean something different to many players.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Do you ever reply where I dont have to scroll down to read your comments?
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
This answer is the best answer I've ever heard. And is exactly how it is. Random? Yes... Within the realms of your account.... therefore it is NOT random.
From what did you draw the conclusion that your individual account has anything to do with individual drops and their randomness?
The fact that every single person doesn't get specific champs. How many champs do you have at max sig? I have like 30odd. And I still dont have champs at 3*. 4*. 5*. And I see soo many people on youtube saying the same. I get the same champs. 3*4*5*. With the odd exception. And that odd exception Is a OMG I got something new/different
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Do you ever reply where I dont have to scroll down to read your comments?
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
This answer is the best answer I've ever heard. And is exactly how it is. Random? Yes... Within the realms of your account.... therefore it is NOT random.
From what did you draw the conclusion that your individual account has anything to do with individual drops and their randomness?
The fact that every single person doesn't get specific champs. How many champs do you have at max sig? I have like 30odd. And I still dont have champs at 3*. 4*. 5*. And I see soo many people on youtube saying the same. I get the same champs. 3*4*5*. With the odd exception. And that odd exception Is a OMG I got something new/different
Wait... Do you mean you don't pull champs you already have at max sig?
I regularly pull 2* 3* and 4* champs that I already have at max sig. I don't have any max sig 5*, but I don't see any reason to not expect pulling those, when I have any.
Or do you mean you didn't pull certain specific champs yet?
Yes, that's a thing.
I still don't see any basis for your conclusion here lol.
The bias part is that its across the board. I'm not the only one. And I bet you're in the same boat. And you can't count 2*s as A. You get sooo many of them and B. A lot of champs arent in that pool.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Do you ever reply where I dont have to scroll down to read your comments?
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
This answer is the best answer I've ever heard. And is exactly how it is. Random? Yes... Within the realms of your account.... therefore it is NOT random.
From what did you draw the conclusion that your individual account has anything to do with individual drops and their randomness?
The fact that every single person doesn't get specific champs. How many champs do you have at max sig? I have like 30odd. And I still dont have champs at 3*. 4*. 5*. And I see soo many people on youtube saying the same. I get the same champs. 3*4*5*. With the odd exception. And that odd exception Is a OMG I got something new/different
Wait... Do you mean you don't pull champs you already have at max sig?
I regularly pull 2* 3* and 4* champs that I already have at max sig. I don't have any max sig 5*, but I don't see any reason to not expect pulling those, when I have any.
Or do you mean you didn't pull certain specific champs yet?
Yes, that's a thing.
I still don't see any basis for your conclusion here lol.
The bias part is that its across the board. I'm not the only one. And I bet you're in the same boat. And you can't count 2*s as A. You get sooo many of them and B. A lot of champs arent in that pool.
Would you care to share your data on that? You must have held one massive survey to reasonably conclude something like that lol.
Oh. So you want me to gather everyones account to prove my point? How about you show me yours and show me there isnt a pattern.
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
That's a tricky question to answer, because it depends on what you mean by steered. Actually, it also critically depends on what you mean by "reliably random."
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Do you ever reply where I dont have to scroll down to read your comments?
Guess knowing how to multiply fractions means we have a PhD in math. It’s unlikely not impossible. you would have eventually gotten him a few times and once you get him to max you’ll get the max sig crystal Plus GR is a great character by himself he has nice utility
When he gets him to max sig he will stop pulling him from crystals.
RNG baby.
An independent event is not influenced by other previous results
Proff hof conspiracy theorist
Yea....but as soon as he’s max sig he will disappear from this summoners crystal spins.
I have a 4* joe fix it that I got early on..... spun him 3 times for dup’d. And never once even saw him even in the spin animation since he became max sig.
RNG I guess.
Ahhh conspiracies are based on fallacies, misinformation, false logic, and straight up wrong information or lack of info. The reel has nothing to do with what you get Your crystal is already determined as soon as you buy it Not my fault you have a hard time getting that As I said before
Proff hof conspirator
You do not get it when you buy it unless it is specific crystals like a featured. People have held onto 5*s and latter gotten a new champ.
Yep. The way this works is that the crystal has a reward drop table associated with it. When you buy a crystal, you're getting a crystal that points to that reward table. This is permanent and does not change. However, some reward tables are themselves fixed and some change. Featured crystals point to a reward table that never changes, because they point to a reward table that contains specific featured champions with specific drop odds. However, things like basic crystals point to the basic reward table and even though the crystal doesn't change the reward table itself does. So if you buy a basic crystal but don't open it, when you do finally open it you'll get a champion from the basic reward table at that time which can contain champions that didn't exist in the basic crystal reward table when you bought it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Would you consider a system that “steered” results even the slightest amount to still be reliably random?
Dr. Zola
This answer is the best answer I've ever heard. And is exactly how it is. Random? Yes... Within the realms of your account.... therefore it is NOT random.
From what did you draw the conclusion that your individual account has anything to do with individual drops and their randomness?
The fact that every single person doesn't get specific champs. How many champs do you have at max sig? I have like 30odd. And I still dont have champs at 3*. 4*. 5*. And I see soo many people on youtube saying the same. I get the same champs. 3*4*5*. With the odd exception. And that odd exception Is a OMG I got something new/different
Wait... Do you mean you don't pull champs you already have at max sig?
I regularly pull 2* 3* and 4* champs that I already have at max sig. I don't have any max sig 5*, but I don't see any reason to not expect pulling those, when I have any.
Or do you mean you didn't pull certain specific champs yet?
Yes, that's a thing.
I still don't see any basis for your conclusion here lol.
The bias part is that its across the board. I'm not the only one. And I bet you're in the same boat. And you can't count 2*s as A. You get sooo many of them and B. A lot of champs arent in that pool.
Would you care to share your data on that? You must have held one massive survey to reasonably conclude something like that lol.
Oh. So you want me to gather everyones account to prove my point? How about you show me yours and show me there isnt a pattern.
Wait... Wait... Let me recap:
You claim something that would literally need a massive amount of data to actually determine.
I doubt that claim and ask for your basis/data.
And now you want me to prove the opposite to you?
This is pure gold. Thanks for that.
The data is through the whole thread. All over youtube. And in your account.
Comments
Goodnight.
I don't just think the drops are random. I know they are random to within certain measurable limits. Once those measurable limits exceeded the limits of casual observation by two orders of magnitude, I stopped expending my time on something that would only convince people who would already be convinced by the data. What I've learned from studying randomness in games for quite a while is more data analysis doesn't convince more people. Beyond a critical threshold, more data analysis just compels people to hold onto their intuitive guesses even harder in opposition.
Some people say you would never know if the drops were broken unless you see the code. I know from experience that's not true. The people who think the drops are broken would not be convinced by the code. They would assert bugs could still exist outside the code, and in fact when all possible sources of software bugs are eliminated they will revert to claiming that the fundamental algorithms behind the random number generators cannot be "proven" to actually be random. Which is technically true, since randomness has no strict mathematical definition. You can't prove anything is "truly random" because there's no such thing as truly random: that phrase has no testable definition.
What would convince you otherwise?
Dr. Zola
The weird thing (weird to me anyway) about most claims about non-random drops is that they have to resort to stating that any results that don't match the theory are expected because the drops are still random enough that many situations won't match the theory. But then you can say anything about the drops. They are non-random except when they are.
I mention over-correlation. That's the case where one drop is more likely to be X than Y given that the prior drop (or some other past condition) is known. This is difficult to disprove because it requires a lot of data to reduce the margin for error, it is difficult to analyze from streamed openings (because when people open lots of crystals they tend to open them in batches of ten which blurs the result), and it is extremely time consuming to test alone. And every time I've mustered the energy to test it, the results always end up right on the margin of being just inside the margin of likelihood. If someone told me there was a bug somewhere, I would bet it was here, but I just can't prove it.
The actual specific drop is generated by the game servers when you decide to open the crystal. If you pop the crystal the drop is generated at that moment. If you choose to spin the crystal the drop is generated shortly after you put the crystal into the spinner. At that point whether you tap to stop or spin out the drop is already determined and won't change, not even if you force close the game.
There's two ways to tell that your drop is already generated even while the crystal is spinning. The first is that alliance mates can actually see what you got while your crystal is spinning because your drop shows up in alliance chat. The second is that if your drop is a first time drop of a champion of any rank for your roster the little "1" will show up on your profile to designate you have a new profile pic. So it's a done deal before the crystal actually stops: the visual animation is just generated to match the actual drop.
Dr. Zola
However, if I then post my openings and they are in no way remotely unusual, it is entirely fair to question that statement even though it is an "exaggeration." It was an exaggeration but it was intended to imply a general idea that isn't generally agreed to be true.
When someone says something is mathematically impossible on the forums, most of the time they are attempting to imply that something is so rare that seeing it is noteworthy and possibly suggests the game is not as random as the developers imply. When those two ideas aren't actually true, it is entirely fair to attack the original characterization of impossibility.
If I say that a champion as a 10% chance to crit, and the tohit roll is generated by PRNG, then the tohit roll is random, but the chance to crit isn't completely random: there's a 10% chance you crit and a 90% chance you don't crit, so the sequence of crits and non-crits itself wouldn't be considered random. Usually, in colloquial speech, when we say in this situation the chance to crit is random, we mean the roll is random, not the result.
So a crystal that has a 5% chance for 4* and 95% chance for 3* or 2* is obviously not random, since we're specifying in what way the results are not random. When we say the crystal is random, we mean the system generates random numbers and the results are statistically consistent with the result distribution.
I wouldn't ordinarily say that something is or is not "reliably random" because that has odd connotations. But if there was a provable statistical skew other than the explicitly stated ones, as mentioned above, I would instead say that the (colloquial) statement that the system generates every champion randomly outside of the obviously stated odds breakdown was false. Or more directly, that Kabam was either lying about the drop system or was blind to an obvious bug.
The magnitude of the "steering" isn't really relevant, except insofar as the smaller it is, the more difficult it would be to prove, to the point where very small steers would be impossible to prove with the information we have. But such a steer would also be illogical to deliberately put in the game, because by definition no one could ever be affected by it in a way anyone would notice.
Like someone else above I’ve pulled Nightcrawler three out of the last five 5* crystals.
The fact that it took a lot of discussion to answer my question is helpful. That suggests to me there may be a bit of wiggle room around “randomness.”
I think most players assume random means things are the same, equivalent “random,” across all facets of the game, at all times and for all players unless explicitly stated otherwise. That’s layman’s terminology, but deviations that aren’t explicitly disclosed would probably mean something different to many players.
Dr. Zola