Kabam Answer Please: What are the actual ODDS in the new 5* crystals?
dylanfox07
Member Posts: 4
Kabam, please answer us truthfully...
As you pointed out in your Announcement post, there will be 1 featured, 36 basic heroes, and 37 "sub-featured" heroes in the new 15k crystal you are releasing.
What are the actual odds to get a featured vs. the basic or sub-featured. Is the odds the same to get a basic vs. sub-featured or is it tilted toward the basics? This is important information you need to share with the community. In my opinion, there should be more chance to get the featured and sub-featured than a basic for the cost of the added shards.
Please provide this information.
As you pointed out in your Announcement post, there will be 1 featured, 36 basic heroes, and 37 "sub-featured" heroes in the new 15k crystal you are releasing.
What are the actual odds to get a featured vs. the basic or sub-featured. Is the odds the same to get a basic vs. sub-featured or is it tilted toward the basics? This is important information you need to share with the community. In my opinion, there should be more chance to get the featured and sub-featured than a basic for the cost of the added shards.
Please provide this information.
5
Comments
Dr. Zola
Yes we need to know the odds of sub-feature be basic champs for a 15K featured crystals in order to plan our crystal opening.
Please don't give us vague answers come on.
I'm not hopeful either. But we ought to know ballpark numbers so we can make resource decisions accordingly. Tell us it's about 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 for a feature and about 1 in 10 for a sub. That's hardly proprietary and would at least give some directional guidance.
Transparency, remember?
Dr. Zola
I can't really even give you relative rates, but I can say that you're still most likely to get a Basic 5-Star Hero, followed by the Featured Hero, followed by a Hero from the Sub-Featured pool.
mashable.com/2017/05/05/overwatch-loot-box-probability/#SO7Hko5_Taqt
Can I at least get a clarification whether the drop rate is unchanged for featureds under the new system--which would mean that the sub-feature drop rate replaced a little of the basic drop rate?
Dr. Zola
The only real reason I can guess for not giving at least directional guidance is if the rates are not identical for all players at all times and in all circumstances--the ever nefarious "in game factors."
But if Miike is willing to just say "your chances are bad...really bad" I will accept that too.
DZ
If not, and they gave you the drop rate of a crystal (example: PHC 1:50 = 3*, 1:100 = 4*), it could be impossible to determine your actual chances of getting either, as it would be determined on how many crystals are opened game wide, and if you happened to be the one to open the exact right one at the exact right moment. Chances are they actually don't know the drop rate for individuals. This would likely explain the resistance to share.
I didn't mean different for each summoner. I meant are the drop rates of crystals for individuals or for entire game community .
So let's say the drop rate is 1:100 = 4* out of PHC. Every 100 crystals opened across the entire platform, 1 crystal will contain the 4* star hero.
This is different than saying that for every 100 crystals a specific summoner opens will result in a 4* hero.
The first scenario is the most plausible.
The original announcement said that the odds of pulling the featured champ is unchanged, and in another post Kabam Miike stated that the odds of pulling a subfeatured champion were significantly smaller than the odds of pulling featured, and reduced the odds of pulling a basic to compensate (compensate in the sense that obviously the total odds have to add up to 100%).
For example purposes, given the general playerbase guestimate that the odds of pulling a featured were 20% originally, that would imply that the featured crystal used to have odds of 20%/80% split between featured and basic, it will now have odds of 20%/X%/Y% split between getting the featured, getting one of the subfeatureds, and getting a basic 5* champion, where X+Y = 80% and X<20%. My wild guess is its probably somewhere in the general area of 20/5/75 or something like that.
That's not really how probability works. In a lottery, the odds of winning per ticket are the same for everyone, but of course (and I'm simplifying here) one person wins and everyone else loses. That doesn't mean that one person's individual odds of winning were 100% and everyone else's was zero.
This is it. When we see people wondering why they opened, let's say 100 Crystals, and never got a 4*, it's because it's not a guaranteed outcome if you have 100. If the odds are 1/100 and you have 100 Crystals, you have 100 chances at 1/100. Not 100% probability.
In the lottery they post the odds as 1:4.5 million (or some large number). It is understood that you have a minimal chance at winning. But there is also no guarantee that anyone will win. With the crystals that is different. There is a guarantee that someone WILL in fact be the 'winner'.
There was a post made by Kabam Miike a while back when they added more basic 5* champs to the 5* crystals. There was an explanation at that time how the crystals work. It's not broken into a percentage like you described above. Each featured crystal gives you a specific chance to open a featured champ. If we assume that it's 20%, then you have an 80% chance to not get the featured champ. Then you had an equal chance to get every other champ that's in the crystal. It's a two-step process; one step to determine if you get the featured, and the second step activates if you don't get it. Assuming the same process applies, we're looking at something like this:
20% chance to get the featured. 80% chance you don't get the featured.
If you don't get it, 15% chance to get the sub featured. 85% chance you don't get sub-featured.
If you don't get it, 100% chance to get a basic.
The crystal opening process is several steps. It doesn't give you a specific % chance for each champion type in one spin.
When the computer generates an outcome based on set probability, each generated outcome is individual. It's also possible no one will get a 4*. Although the odds of winning the the lottery are much less than the odds of a 4*. That's why we see people getting them.
I see. I think a large percentage of people think something is done behind the scenes to changes these probabilities, which would change the perceived drop rates for individuals. Everyone goes through dry spells, where they don't pull one for months, then all of a sudden they start pulling every 2-3 days.
Personally I don't think they change anything, nor do they have time to do such a thing. Could it become bugged? Sure look at the game.
but if the drop rates become bugged they will see it in the metrics. The keep track of how much of something drops on a grand scale over time, or at least everything that has been said over the past year leads me to see that. Komish(as known on the last forums) looks at those numbers.
I don't think so. What we're seeing is RNG. Just the opposite actually. The outcome is generated based on the odds everytime. There is nothing that increases or decreases them based on how many bad pulls you get. It's luck of the draw.
And the biggest problem people seem to have with RNG, is you can never prove it's not random.
There are ways of detecting the probability if one examines all drops as a collective over time, as opposed to being biased to who does and does not get good ones.
However, for the purpose of example, I will say that you can never prove that people aren't reading your thoughts. It doesn't encourage me to wear tin foil.
That's algorithmically likely to be true, but its mathematically irrelevant. In the example you specify above, that algorithm is indistinguishable from an algorithm that gave a 20% chance for featured, 12% chance for subfeatured, 68% chance for basic. Its just a question of how the game designer decided to create the reward tables.
The first scenario is not plausible. There are people who flash open dozens or hundreds of crystals in very rapid succession. At the moment they are doing this, they are very likely to be responsible for a large percentage of all the crystals being opened on that particular server shard at that minute of the day, if not possibly all of them. If the system was designed to guaranteed hand out one 4* champion out of every X openings, the people who flash open lots of crystals very quickly would have a very good chance of seeing that effect.
Systems like that can be constructed; I've usually referred to them as "golden ticket" systems in that the system doesn't behave like random rolls of dice like a craps game, instead they act like a contest where you have to find the golden ticket that has been randomly distributed among lots of candy bars. But usually random loot boxes in MMO style games don't work that way, and I think if MCOC crystals worked that way we'd have seen evidence of it by now: it is very difficult to hide that behavior.
Now here's what we do know or put it in another way, what we all assume. The drop rate regardless of hero crystal types are bad.
Now this is what I feel. Its all random. It's like when I was working in a big organization about 8 years ago, I know of this colleague from the sanitary department who during the annual company dinner and dance always somehow manage to come away with iPads, LCD TVs, air tickets and on his worst year, a 2 night stay at a five star resort. Me? My best win was 6 bottles of chicken essence. For the 4 years I work there, that was the only thing I won.
Its all down to luck man. I don't believe in Kabam secretly altering drop rates for individuals. If that is the case and please don't issue me an infraction for this, why are Mayhem Effect or WebSnatcher not the top 2 summoners in the game right now? On the opposite site we have Seatin who is always slamming Kabam's offers. Yet its still good pull after good pull for him. Just a few hours ago my girlfriend top up an Odin because she felt like spinning some crystals. I told her the drop rate was **** and she's better off using the Odin on her mastery. She pulled a 4* Vision and a Wolverine. I went back into my room.