Week Two of the Crystal Cleanse Event
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 19,673 Guardian
We've just completed week two of the Crystal Cleanse event. Where are we now?
We're now definitively below the pace necessary to reach the final one billion crystal milestone. Our current linear projection looks like this:
The current forecast is about 750m, a bit under last week's 800m. That's due to a slow average decline in crystal opening rate, which is easier to see with daily statistics:
There were some people thinking that the new featured 6* crystal change over might cause a bump, but I didn't think that was likely because the numbers were simply too small: even at our current slower-than-necessary pace we're still opening over ten million crystals per day. I can't imagine featured 6* crystals being opened at even one percent of that rate for a sustained period of time.
Of course, every little bit helps. I did see a weird bump on Saturday morning that I don't have a good explanation for:
It could be a data error: the numbers update often but not perfectly in real time, so it is possible I happened to collect data near a data update and some crystals were pigeonholed incorrectly. Another possibility is that a pocket of players decided to open crystals at around the same time: there have been other smaller fluctuations in opening rate, and that spike occurs near when RichtheMan released his Crystal Cleanse video encouraging people to open crystals. So maybe he got a bunch of his viewers to open crystals around that time. Unfortunately, it wasn't a sustained bump upward.
So is it hopeless? Well, maybe not. The question is how many crystals are still out there, and how many of them are players willing to open. There are many people I've seen on the forums, the Reddit, and the Discord who believe Kabam set the number way too high: that there was no possible way we could ever hope to open one billion crystals in 35 days. But that's actually not true: we've done it before, or at least come close.
Kabam doesn't often release game statistics, and there are no recent stats on crystal openings, but during the sixth anniversary celebration video (6 year celebration) they stated that players had opened "more than" 29 billion crystals in the game. And the following year (Hercules presents: 2021 Summoner Celebration Event) they said that number was 39 billion. That's approximately 10 billion crystals in about a one year span. That's an average of about 27 million crystals per day, and about 960 million crystals in an average 35 day span, very close to one billion crystals without an event incentive to open crystals.
Now, that was three years ago. The crystal environment might be different. The number of players might be different. That is also the year after Covid lockdowns, when mobile game activity was higher. But even if we assume about 25% fewer players than at the height of lockdown gaming (which would be proportional to the revenue differential) that would imply our ordinary crystal opening rate should be in the range of about 700-750 million crystals in a 35 day span. That's more or less what our rate is now.
So clearly, we could do better than we're doing now. The question is how much better. But it is definitely not hopeless. The current trend is we'll fall short. But the crystals are out there, and it isn't even about players forcing open crystals they want to keep or losing rewards due to expiration. The amount of crystals we're opening now is basically proportional to the number of crystals we used to open in the past just ordinarily. We can certainly do better without wasting rewards and without overstuffing our stash. We can't blame Kabam for making it difficult or impossible. History says it isn't impossible, and given the number of crystals out there and the number of players out there, it isn't even something I think is super difficult or costly for players.
The question is not can we. The question is will we. At the end of the day, this event is still in our hands.
Previous thread: First Week of Crystal Cleanse Event
We're now definitively below the pace necessary to reach the final one billion crystal milestone. Our current linear projection looks like this:
The current forecast is about 750m, a bit under last week's 800m. That's due to a slow average decline in crystal opening rate, which is easier to see with daily statistics:
There were some people thinking that the new featured 6* crystal change over might cause a bump, but I didn't think that was likely because the numbers were simply too small: even at our current slower-than-necessary pace we're still opening over ten million crystals per day. I can't imagine featured 6* crystals being opened at even one percent of that rate for a sustained period of time.
Of course, every little bit helps. I did see a weird bump on Saturday morning that I don't have a good explanation for:
It could be a data error: the numbers update often but not perfectly in real time, so it is possible I happened to collect data near a data update and some crystals were pigeonholed incorrectly. Another possibility is that a pocket of players decided to open crystals at around the same time: there have been other smaller fluctuations in opening rate, and that spike occurs near when RichtheMan released his Crystal Cleanse video encouraging people to open crystals. So maybe he got a bunch of his viewers to open crystals around that time. Unfortunately, it wasn't a sustained bump upward.
So is it hopeless? Well, maybe not. The question is how many crystals are still out there, and how many of them are players willing to open. There are many people I've seen on the forums, the Reddit, and the Discord who believe Kabam set the number way too high: that there was no possible way we could ever hope to open one billion crystals in 35 days. But that's actually not true: we've done it before, or at least come close.
Kabam doesn't often release game statistics, and there are no recent stats on crystal openings, but during the sixth anniversary celebration video (6 year celebration) they stated that players had opened "more than" 29 billion crystals in the game. And the following year (Hercules presents: 2021 Summoner Celebration Event) they said that number was 39 billion. That's approximately 10 billion crystals in about a one year span. That's an average of about 27 million crystals per day, and about 960 million crystals in an average 35 day span, very close to one billion crystals without an event incentive to open crystals.
Now, that was three years ago. The crystal environment might be different. The number of players might be different. That is also the year after Covid lockdowns, when mobile game activity was higher. But even if we assume about 25% fewer players than at the height of lockdown gaming (which would be proportional to the revenue differential) that would imply our ordinary crystal opening rate should be in the range of about 700-750 million crystals in a 35 day span. That's more or less what our rate is now.
So clearly, we could do better than we're doing now. The question is how much better. But it is definitely not hopeless. The current trend is we'll fall short. But the crystals are out there, and it isn't even about players forcing open crystals they want to keep or losing rewards due to expiration. The amount of crystals we're opening now is basically proportional to the number of crystals we used to open in the past just ordinarily. We can certainly do better without wasting rewards and without overstuffing our stash. We can't blame Kabam for making it difficult or impossible. History says it isn't impossible, and given the number of crystals out there and the number of players out there, it isn't even something I think is super difficult or costly for players.
The question is not can we. The question is will we. At the end of the day, this event is still in our hands.
Previous thread: First Week of Crystal Cleanse Event
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Comments
Smegols.... hahahaha
These are all true statements. But they also miss the point. Here are other true statements. If revives were free, more people would be able to complete the Necropolis for more rewards. If gold was free, more players would be able to rank up more champions. If you didn't lose trophies in Battlegrounds, more people would be able to reach the Gladiator Circuit.
If things were easier, then they'd be easier. That doesn't mean they'd be better. If we don't reach the final milestone, that's a failure for the players. That's not a failure for Kabam, any more than the fact that there are players who refuse to do Necropolis because they want revives to be free is a failure for Kabam. Kabam didn't fail to make a Necropolis that everyone can do. Kabam didn't intend to make a Necropolis that everyone could do.
The Crystal Cleanse is not an event that Kabam intends us to beat. The Crystal Cleanse is an event that Kabam gives us the opportunity to beat, but if we don't or can't, then we don't. And then we'll all move on to the next Realm event, and the next one, and the next one.
If we always win, its pointless. If we always lose, its pointless. A well designed event is not one where we win. It is one where we could win, but only if we actually try. Which means failure is always going to be an option.
The final milestone looks to me like it was picked to be reachable, but not reachable automatically. Before the event first started someone asked me if I thought the final milestone was reachable. I told them I thought the number was probably picked to be somewhat higher than what players normally open, so that it would require special effort to reach. The figure of merit I had in mind at the time was about 700m-800m being the ordinary rate to make 1b crystals be a reasonable stretch goal. My guess might have been slightly high there, but we'll see.
People are not very predictable. Not many people thought we'd reach the final milestone in Road to the Crypt. Few people could guess how many players would try, and how many deaths they'd individually rack up. They didn't predict the big push at the end. And yes, Necropolis and RttC are different from the Crystal Cleanse in that the rewards in RttC were a very strong incentive that doesn't exist for the Crystal Cleanse. But thinking that rewards are the only things that motivate players belies the fact that our players do not strictly focus on in-game rewards and in-game roster strength only. If they did, profile pics would not sell as well as they seem to. Rank up decisions would be more uniform. Everyone plays for their own reasons, they hoard for their own reasons, and they open crystals for their own reasons. Until they do it, it is very hard to predict what people will do.
Stuff like old featured 6* crystals, old side quest Cav crystals, special one-off crystals are the kinds of crystals targeted. Stuff that is still in general circulation and players are still earning, like PHCs, gold crystals, T4CC crystals, basic 6* and 7* crystals, etc, are safe because they cannot be deleted from the game, since even if they purge everyone's inventory of them, players can still get more in the future.
When you hear people say "Kabam doesn't want players to hoard crystals because it slows down the game" this is the origin of that (false) rumor. No matter how many crystals you have, the game doesn't care. If you have one or a million, that's just a number. Even if you have zero, the game still has to keep track of exactly one number: a zero. But the number of *different* crystals that exist matter, because every crystal that exists is graphics that has to be embedded in the game, drop tables and definitions that have to exist on the servers, and every single game account that currently exists or has ever existed has to keep track of how many of those crystals that player has, even if that number is zero. Every time they can delete a crystal, that makes the game client smaller, makes updates to the game quicker, and makes the servers run a little better.
lazycurrent workflow.If you want to help your fellow players, open crystals. If you don't, don't. And if Kabam wants certain crystals to be expired from the game, they'll just open them for you when the event ends, and no one is going to lose any sleep over opening crystals that might have earned players rewards if only they decided to open them themselves.
If all you care about is rewards, and only rewards large enough for your own satisfaction, then this realm event is not for you. Maybe the next one will be. But as far as I'm concerned, the realm events should be treated as a way to work cooperatively towards a goal. I don't need to be gifted T4 Alphas to help my fellow players. If you do, then that's a statement about you, not the event.
This is a statistical analysis. This is also a statistical analysis (albeit more of a calculation check). This is a statistical analysis (although I omitted a lot of the actual analysis). This is a statistical analysis (with graphs). And this is a statistical analysis (but more of a statistics lesson).
They do look similar at a glance, but while these posts have all the hallmarks of a statistical analysis, in that they are long, have a lot of math, and are punctuated with graphs, they lack one of the critical elements of a statistical analysis, namely actual statistics.
Someone could in theory open 1290 T4CC crystals and get 2653 crystal openings out of them. Hypothetically speaking of course.