Gwenpool Cutoff Results

2

Comments

  • Dexman1349Dexman1349 Posts: 3,060 ★★★★★
    ^^^ If kabam really wanted to fix arena scores, they would adjust the abilities to make all champs desirable. Then we'd all be fighting the exact same character with different skins and the game would die a quick death.
  • myPUNCAKEmyPUNCAKE Posts: 359
    Dexman1349 wrote: »
    ^^^ If kabam really wanted to fix arena scores, they would adjust the abilities to make all champs desirable. Then we'd all be fighting the exact same character with different skins and the game would die a quick death.

    The day Kabam does those massive tweaks is the day everyone will have a 5/50 Luke Cage on their profile. In that instance there would be no shame anymore.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 27,386 ★★★★★
    Of course the score is going to be higher with more desirable Champs. It also fluxes. It goes down for middle and lower desirables. There are also other factors that influence the cutoffs. The main point is that this system is much better than the old. Not everyone will be able to get every Champ. That's why it's a contest. Inevitably it will go up because Rosters grow as well. Knowing a Champ is going to be sought after means gauging whether we can and want to invest enough into getting them. It also means if we go for them and we think we're safe, it's best to Grind more for good measure.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,386 Guardian
    Dexman1349 wrote: »
    @DNA3000, that all assumes the players go to the same streak number (i.e. fight the same number of fights) every time. If my goal is 3 million points, I go for 3m points. I don't go for a streak of 150. Ranking up my champs just means that next time I may only need a streak of 135 to get there, but I know I'm still capable of doing 150 if I need that extra boost.

    It does not assume that. It assumes that statistically speaking, when the amount of effort required to reach a particular score goes down, average scores will go up. It does not make any assumptions about how any particular player will react. If you choose to react in the way you describe, enough players will choose to do differently to overtake you. As long as a reasonable fraction of players do so, since only 10% get the basic it doesn't matter if others don't.

    It is important to note that the only important people when it comes to rank rewards are the people near the borderline. It doesn't matter if a player that ordinarily would score 8 million ends up scoring 9 million or 8.5 million or just 8 million after 14.0. They are so far above the likely cutoffs and they know it. So their decision making is totally different. But the people in the vicinity of 5-7 million know they are in the vicinity of the cutoff for high value champions, or at least a sufficiently large fraction of them do. These are the people who have to decide whether to push harder or coast, and the incentive to push harder is exponentially higher for them than for people far above or far below the likely cutoff. If the arena makes it easier to score more points, these people will be far more likely to score use that opportunity to score more points.

    This is also why T4B has absolutely no statistical impact on basic champ cutoffs - I've analyzed that enough times if someone wants to redo the analysis they are welcome to it. T4B can reduce the scoring of the guy that normally does 8 so he does 7.4. He can afford it. But if a high value champion is up, and the cutoff is going to be in the area of 6 million, the guy that ordinarily gets to about 6 million isn't going to divert energy to the T4B arena, risking the loss of the basic champ. Or rather, enough players won't that everyone that does do that ends up just falling behind the ones that don't, which makes the cutoff score just as high as if T4B wasn't running. The psychology of the 5-7 million grinder is fundamentally different than the 8 million+ grinder or the 4 million and under grinder. Those people have guaranteed wins or guaranteed losses of the basic champ when it is a very high value champ. The people in the middle ultimately determine the cutoff, and their psychology is different because their choices are fundamentally different.

    The psychology is also different for lower value champions. There, people are less likely to be going all-out and more likely to be aiming for scores, balancing the chance of getting the basic with achieving milestone rewards across the arena events.
  • Stara99Stara99 Posts: 423 ★★
    I scored 1.4 mil and have her.
  • myPUNCAKEmyPUNCAKE Posts: 359
    Stara99 wrote: »
    I scored 1.4 mil and have her.

    Beginners bracket?
  • webnikwebnik Posts: 4
    Are we expecting similarly high cutoffs for the current round? Am on 2m and deciding whether or not to bother continuing.
  • 8.5m. Ranked around 1500. I really wanted her.
  • webnikwebnik Posts: 4
    Yeah these numbers are crazy high. I'm not usually a grinder so don't know whether Round 2 is usually lower - in the old days it was but with Miles Morales up against her I'm worried demand will be strong and I'm wasting my time.
  • aryaintardisaryaintardis Posts: 28
    edited July 2017
    webnik wrote: »
    Yeah these numbers are crazy high. I'm not usually a grinder so don't know whether Round 2 is usually lower - in the old days it was but with Miles Morales up against her I'm worried demand will be strong and I'm wasting my time.

    First cutoff was 6.4m. Second will probably be lower since her signature skill is not a must and with the ban wave going on. I don't want to give a number since it is usually a bad practice.
  • webnikwebnik Posts: 4
    No worries. Yeah I've seen the way some people react to finding out they've missed out, trying to find people to blame!
  • webnik wrote: »
    No worries. Yeah I've seen the way some people react to finding out they've missed out, trying to find people to blame!

    Haha correct that is! But good luck if you decide to go through with it.
  • I_am_GrootI_am_Groot Posts: 646 ★★
    Many cheaters and sharers were banned, cutoff would low now.
  • myPUNCAKEmyPUNCAKE Posts: 359
    I_am_Groot wrote: »
    Many cheaters and sharers were banned, cutoff would low now.

    Yeah can't wait to see the results of the van in arenas. We may not see changes in this one as they banned hen half way through, but in the Vulture/WW2 arena we should see changes
  • webnikwebnik Posts: 4
    Oh wow. I decided not to grind, got 11-25% shards, opened a 4* and....

    qztxfgz4483h.png

    Woo!!! This never happens to me!!!
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,386 Guardian
    myPUNCAKE wrote: »
    I_am_Groot wrote: »
    Many cheaters and sharers were banned, cutoff would low now.

    Yeah can't wait to see the results of the van in arenas. We may not see changes in this one as they banned hen half way through, but in the Vulture/WW2 arena we should see changes

    You're unlikely to see dramatic changes. Although there was a drop in scoring after the last ban wave, that is possibly, and probably coincidental. Looking at scoring patterns if 10% of all arena grinders were banned which seems a ridiculously high percentage, that would have only lowered cutoff scores for Hyperion and Voodoo by a couple hundred thousand, and even Gwenpool by about half a million. For a champ like Magik, who is likely a comparable champ to CapWWII, it would have been about two hundred thousand. That's too small to be noticeable because it is within the margin for error for cutoff predictions.
  • myPUNCAKEmyPUNCAKE Posts: 359
    Fair points @DNA3000, but a small drop in points is better than nothing, all the people that missed Gwen, Voodoo, and Hyperion by a little bit may have gotten it if modders were cut a little earlier. But we can only wait a see. Like you said not expecting anything to drastic.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,386 Guardian
    myPUNCAKE wrote: »
    Fair points @DNA3000, but a small drop in points is better than nothing, all the people that missed Gwen, Voodoo, and Hyperion by a little bit may have gotten it if modders were cut a little earlier. But we can only wait a see. Like you said not expecting anything to drastic.

    I'm not saying it won't be better, I'm just saying that since we don't know what the cutoff would have been with precision and we don't have enough data to extrapolate we'll never know how much better it is. Keep in mind that CapWWII could score higher than history would suggest because it is easier to score points in 14.0. So we can guess what effects caused the score to be what it turns out to be once we see the cutoffs, but we won't be able to say with certainty what only a single effect did in isolation.
  • I got her at 6.218 mil
  • RotmgmoddyRotmgmoddy Posts: 916 ★★★
    webnik wrote: »
    Oh wow. I decided not to grind, got 11-25% shards, opened a 4* and....

    qztxfgz4483h.png

    Woo!!! This never happens to me!!!

    wia4sswoeial.png
    Lol the same happened to me too! On the day of the first GP arena, I wasn't planning to grind for her at all...until I opened my 4* crystal and got her. That motivated me to grind for her to try and awaken her.

    Now she's my latest maxed 4* with signature level 5. Love her!
  • um0p3pisdnum0p3pisdn Posts: 58
    4585b45bbc07.png

    Put up a cool 8mil and snagged her. . . ..arena grinding is unbearable at times, but thats what it takes when RNG doesnt go your way. . .
  • RotmgmoddyRotmgmoddy Posts: 916 ★★★
    Dang, 262 win streak and already 8m... I had a 303 win streak and only had 7.25m.

    I really need to rank more champs...
  • myPUNCAKEmyPUNCAKE Posts: 359
    Rotmgmoddy wrote: »
    Dang, 262 win streak and already 8m... I had a 303 win streak and only had 7.25m.

    I really need to rank more champs...

    Haha yeah me too. Wish my numbers worked better with me just got to invest more

  • ChallengerChallenger Posts: 38
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Dexman1349 wrote: »
    @DNA3000, that all assumes the players go to the same streak number (i.e. fight the same number of fights) every time. If my goal is 3 million points, I go for 3m points. I don't go for a streak of 150. Ranking up my champs just means that next time I may only need a streak of 135 to get there, but I know I'm still capable of doing 150 if I need that extra boost.

    It does not assume that. ........

    The psychology is also different for lower value champions. There, people are less likely to be going all-out and more likely to be aiming for scores, balancing the chance of getting the basic with achieving milestone rewards across the arena events.

    I totally agree, because that what I thought people would do and why I hit 7.1 M both times for Gwen. And I don't wanna miss out T4B because I do need it for ranking ups, so I'm using my deserted bunch for this arena, like Carnage, IP, and some of my 3* champs, hah hah.

    I would like to have CAWWII as well, any thoughts on the cut offs? I personally wanna try 5M, but not sure if he's still desirable to most, I still haven't had him yet. And would like a science champ that I can use on some basic tasks.
  • None, i got her in featured hero crystal when she first came out then a woke her, then duped her to lvl 39+ with sig stones
  • SlySlySlySly Posts: 352 ★★
    Second was lower, one of the guys in my ally got her with 4.8
  • Etaki_LirakoiEtaki_Lirakoi Posts: 480 ★★
    edited July 2017
    SlySly wrote: »
    Second was lower, one of the guys in my ally got her with 4.8
    Yeah, from about 6.2 mil all the way to atmost 4.8 mil, though I think I heard a 4.6 mil in my alliance, huge drop-off.

    I don't exactly know why the huge difference though, maybe more people jumped in the arena, maybe other arenas got in the way. Gwen's signature ability might not have been that important for some. Maybe even the cheaters raised the scores before.

    Edit: It's not the "More people jumped in" one, as roughly the same amount of people were in both rounds (About 130600- 130900).
  • GbSarkarGbSarkar Posts: 1,075 ★★★
    edited July 2017
    I don't exactly know why the huge difference though, maybe more people jumped in the arena, maybe other arenas got in the way. Gwen's signature ability might not have been that important for some. Maybe even the cheaters raised the scores before.

    Huge drop in scores is normal for the highly wanted basics. Scores are crazy high the first round for them and they drop a LOT the second round. Has happened with Quake, GR, Mordo, DV, Hyperion, and now GP
  • Etaki_LirakoiEtaki_Lirakoi Posts: 480 ★★
    edited July 2017
    GbSarkar wrote: »
    I don't exactly know why the huge difference though, maybe more people jumped in the arena, maybe other arenas got in the way. Gwen's signature ability might not have been that important for some. Maybe even the cheaters raised the scores before.

    Huge drop in scores is normal for the highly wanted basics. Scores are crazy high the first round for them and they drop a LOT the second round. Has happened with Quake, GR, Mordo, DV, Hyperion, and now GP
    Correct on all but GR, only dropped from 4.3 to 4.

    But yeah, all the other ones dropped a lot, I always knew they dropped second round usually, but not for over a million points.
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