If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
You underestimate the whales. They will spend if it means getting 5*. Have you seen how much they spend on featured 4* crystals? The new Grandmaster Crystal is only 50 units more.
I've seen a guy hit SA by himself. Literally hit 265k in one day. The whales are going to be milked and I'm going to be left behind.
I watched a guy do that every week for 4 months before I left the allaince
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
Uh, I guess I'm a whale? Not really, but apparently people who score in the top 800 are whales. I have been grinding for each 4* featured that has come out since 12.0 with the exception of Angela and Carnage. The amount I spend in arena to get top 800 is 0. 0 units, $0, and 0 arena boosts. I'm not a top spender by any means, but I exchange that for time. For me, if I got, say, 1 5* a week, it would not push me to go farther and push up my arena score. If anything, I would give a sigh of relief because it would help me to grind less. The goal post will be virtually the same, but for me, more 5* just reduces my grind time.
You misunderstood me, I am not saying all top 800 are whales, otherwise that would be myself as well. At this point it's just wait and see.
Ah, apologies good sir. In any case, I can't see the announcement having a negative impact on arena scores. If anything, it would be more positive because people don't want to invest in 4* anymore.
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
Uh, I guess I'm a whale? Not really, but apparently people who score in the top 800 are whales. I have been grinding for each 4* featured that has come out since 12.0 with the exception of Angela and Carnage. The amount I spend in arena to get top 800 is 0. 0 units, $0, and 0 arena boosts. I'm not a top spender by any means, but I exchange that for time. For me, if I got, say, 1 5* a week, it would not push me to go farther and push up my arena score. If anything, I would give a sigh of relief because it would help me to grind less. The goal post will be virtually the same, but for me, more 5* just reduces my grind time.
You misunderstood me, I am not saying all top 800 are whales, otherwise that would be myself as well. At this point it's just wait and see.
Ah, apologies good sir. In any case, I can't see the announcement having a negative impact on arena scores. If anything, it would be more positive because people don't want to invest in 4* anymore.
I mean in some ways I could see it happening but I'm just wondering how long it'll even be worth it. I stopped grinding for 3* for a reason too
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
Bit.ly/arenahistory
Yeah I have that myself, where on earth is 50-60k coming from
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
I took the reddit data for the recent arena cutoffs and did two things. I charted all of the data and did a linear trendline. That trendline is 56122x + 10,000,000. That includes both "high value" and "low value" featureds, so I also did another one where I eliminated all the repeats. That one came out to 62270x + 8,000,000. So the slope of the average increase is somewhere between 56k and 62k.
However, I double checked my spreadsheet and I misquoted one thing: that's the average rate of increase per event, which means the average increase per week has to be double that, or 112k to 124k per week. I apologize for that error. But I also realized I made another error: I compared the scoring for Green Goblin with everything else. That event took place after the 14.0 changes that made arena faster. I should have stopped the chart before GG, and to be fair reverse analyzed a correction factor for GG after a few more weeks pass. When I do that, I get 33277x + 10,000,000. That's a weekly increase of about 66k.
I also went and dug up the old one. The old spreadsheet I posted last year showed a linear trendline of 93612x + 5,000,000 for the first featured score, which means that score is weekly by definition. So the current arena's score rise is, depending on how you look at it, roughly in the vicinity of the older one. With GG the rate is higher, without GG it is lower, and the odds are that GG overstates the long term trend by at least a little given 14.0's changes. It will take a few months under the new system to really be sure.
This is the chart I posted a while back:
This is the quickie one I did for the current arena system using the latest reddit data:
and this is a version that eliminates the lower scoring repeat featureds:
How on earth am I supposed to keep up with the spenders with the grandmaster crystal? The day that comes out the 5* rosters are going to double and arena scores are to follow suit. I really never bought you would allow 5* to be bought.
That seems unlikely to me because having more 5* champions doesn't radically increase scoring potential at the very top. For me, each 5* champion increases my scoring potential because 5* champions recharge slowly and I don't spend units to recharge them. So more is better. But if you are already putting up 15-17 million you are either spending a lot on recharges already or putting huge amounts of time into grinding with a lot of champions. In both those cases having more 5* champions in your roster has only a small incremental benefit to increasing scoring potential.
I would imagine whales willing to spend hundreds of dollars on the new crystals are already spending hundreds of dollars on recharging for arena (if they grind arena). For those people, scoring will get cheaper but not higher.
Right but they won't change the amount they spend, they will just have more champions to increase their raw scores with before recharging, because they know all the other top 800 whales will do the same thing. Thats how this works
But if you know how that works, that process won't radically increase scoring. For moderate grinders like me, yes. But for the top scorers, no. The top scorers don't have a fixed budget that happens to run out at 17 million. They have a target they shoot for and spend what they need to spend to get there, limited mostly by the amount of time they are willing to expend to reach a certain score. That time is the limiting factor, not the amount of 5* champs.
But even if they did use their remaining roster on top of spending, that still won't increase scores by a lot. Each 5* champ is worth about 20k per fight and without spending on recharging that's 60k per day, 180k per event round (three days). Someone with 50 more 5* champs would at best increase their scoring by 9 million points, and that is a ridiculous outside margin because that would take an additional two to three hours a day over and above their normal grinding.
More 5* champs might turn 17 million into 19 million, maybe. Arena scores are not going to double in the featured arena, and aren't likely to even increase by measureable amounts. Given what it takes to generate those top numbers, the numbers simply aren't there.
It is more likely that 5/65 rank ups will eventually increase arena scores more than the proliferation of 5* champs will, due to the higher PI. But even that is probably a whiles off.
Well Omar is a self proclaimed spender and has agreed with me so idk what to tell ya lol
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
I took the reddit data for the recent arena cutoffs and did two things. I charted all of the data and did a linear trendline. That trendline is 56122x + 10,000,000. That includes both "high value" and "low value" featureds, so I also did another one where I eliminated all the repeats. That one came out to 62270x + 8,000,000. So the slope of the average increase is somewhere between 56k and 62k.
However, I double checked my spreadsheet and I misquoted one thing: that's the average rate of increase per event, which means the average increase per week has to be double that, or 112k to 124k per week. I apologize for that error. But I also realized I made another error: I compared the scoring for Green Goblin with everything else. That event took place after the 14.0 changes that made arena faster. I should have stopped the chart before GG, and to be fair reverse analyzed a correction factor for GG after a few more weeks pass. When I do that, I get 33277x + 10,000,000. That's a weekly increase of about 66k.
I also went and dug up the old one. The old spreadsheet I posted last year showed a linear trendline of 93612x + 5,000,000 for the first featured score, which means that score is weekly by definition. So the current arena's score rise is, depending on how you look at it, roughly in the vicinity of the older one. With GG the rate is higher, without GG it is lower, and the odds are that GG overstates the long term trend by at least a little given 14.0's changes. It will take a few months under the new system to really be sure.
This is the chart I posted a while back:
This is the quickie one I did for the current arena system using the latest reddit data:
and this is a version that eliminates the lower scoring repeat featureds:
I will say it is a hell of a lot easier posting these on the new forums than the old one.
That's definitely impressive and interesting to see. At this point we will just have to wait and see I think. I still believe what I said will be true, but the impact will vary. We have never had an opportunity to buy a crystal for 200 units that contains a full formed 5* in there. No matter how low the odds, I think that's game changing.
That's definitely impressive and interesting to see. At this point we will just have to wait and see I think. I still believe what I said will be true, but the impact will vary. We have never had an opportunity to buy a crystal for 200 units that contains a full formed 5* in there. No matter how low the odds, I think that's game changing.
That's fair. I am curious to see what the odds of 5* are. I suspect very very low. Maybe lower than 4* is in PHC. If the odds of 3,4,5 are the same as 2,3,4 in the standard PHC, then depending on how you calculate value the value of the new crystal is as much as ten times higher. It costs twice as much, but the "value" of a 3* champ is in one sense 18-36 times more than a 2* champ: it takes that many 2* dups to generate enough fragments for a 3* champ (the difference is whether you are maxed or not and counting fragments from max sig crystals). Carried forward across the other ranks, that implies the crystal has between 18 and 36 times the value and twice the cost, so it has 9 to 18 times the value per unit.
I wouldn't do that if I was Kabam, but Kabam has not demonstrated a high fidelity with math. But I have difficulty believing they would make the odds of 4* champ in the new crystal the same as the odds of 3* in the PHC. That seems like a very high chance for 4* champ. So it is possible the odds for 5* champ are also much lower than the odds of 4* champ in the PHC.
(Also, I had to chop down the quote tree because the forum software began to cry)
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
For that much, I'm pretty sure they could buy the loved partner.
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
To each there own, I try not to judge spenders FOR spending. (Asking for things to buy is another thing). I wish Kabam gave them less options though, because it's definitely getting a little out of hand lately. But if they wanna spend and Kabam gave them the power to do so that's on them
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
To each there own, I try not to judge spenders FOR spending. (Asking for things to buy is another thing). I wish Kabam gave them less options though, because it's definitely getting a little out of hand lately. But if they wanna spend and Kabam gave them the power to do so that's on them
I don't judge anybody neither, just asking, maybe they don't know it.
And trying to understand it. I would spend in games, but cmon.
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
For that much, I'm pretty sure they could buy the loved partner.
If the rate is 1% or less (like 4* in PHC) that's 20,000 units for a 5 star. Not many are going to be going that route.
Only 800 get featured 4*. I have no doubt triple that are going to drop thousands of dollars that day. I've met people who drop 5k a week on this game. It's going to be a field day.
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
To each there own, I try not to judge spenders FOR spending. (Asking for things to buy is another thing). I wish Kabam gave them less options though, because it's definitely getting a little out of hand lately. But if they wanna spend and Kabam gave them the power to do so that's on them
I don't judge anybody neither, just asking, maybe they don't know it.
And trying to understand it. I would spend in games, but cmon.
People tend to judge spending on mobile games unfairly in my opinion. People spend tons of money on exercise equipment, on expensive camera equipment, on fine dining restaurants, on travel, on Starbucks coffee. People have hobbies, past times, and preferences. Most of them don't have stigmas associated with spending a lot of money. Someone who has spend tens of thousands of dollars assembling a home entertainment system is probably getting extremely marginal improvement over my whatever setup from Costco, but if that's what they are into, few people would make fun of them for it or claim to not understand it.
In one sense, spending on a mobile game is different because it is spending on virtual items in a game. But really, what you are spending your money on is entertainment. The form that entertainment takes is not important. If it is a home entertainment system then yes you get some actual object for your money, but it is an object that won't last forever. One day it'll break or become obsolete, and then it is just a big bulky box. A $200 meal eventually becomes the same bathroom break as a McDonalds Happy Meal. A trip to the Grand Canyon eventually becomes a couple of photos and a memory of a hazy hole in the ground.
The only difference between spending money on a game you enjoy playing and all those other things is really just preference. $5k a week is a lot to spend on a game, but frankly it is a lot to spend on anything. I would raise an eyebrow if someone was spending $5k a week on their children.
I only hope the people spending that much can afford to spend that much on a past time. If they can, and that's what they enjoy, in my opinion it doesn't matter if that money goes into a mobile game or a trip to Tahiti.
People tend to judge spending on mobile games unfairly in my opinion. People spend tons of money on exercise equipment, on expensive camera equipment, on fine dining restaurants, on travel, on Starbucks coffee. People have hobbies, past times, and preferences. Most of them don't have stigmas associated with spending a lot of money.
It's because videogames have prices between $20 to $100 if we're talking about Full PC/Console videogames. Sometimes you can buy DLCs for those prices too. But that's all, you have already the whole packed, it's not a permanent rent neither with extra zeros.
So, it's very reasonable if someone is astonished because some people is spending the equivalent to a vehicle and/or a nice travel in few items for a mobile videogame.
Add to it, as you know and many people too, items aren't permanent value thing in an online videogame.
So it's not the same to spend in things with a permanent value, memories or whatever.
5k a week maybe is a lot to spend on anything, but some things are more than others.
Comments
Very aware, however the thread isn't about what a whale can do, it is about what a whale will do to arenas.
That's crazy
Ah, apologies good sir. In any case, I can't see the announcement having a negative impact on arena scores. If anything, it would be more positive because people don't want to invest in 4* anymore.
I'm not saying someone won't score higher. But to raise the cutoff 799 other players have to follow suit. If 798 do, the cutoff won't change.
As with the basic crystal, the cutoff scores aren't affected by the absolute highest scorers. They are affected by the players very close to the cutoff. What they do determines the actual cutoff, which is the inverse way of saying to get the featured you have to make sure 800 people don't beat you. If 799 do, you still win. If 800 beat you, you lose.
5* champions have been getting more common already. Featured champion scores have only increased at a rate comparable to the rate they were increasing under the old arena system: about 50-60k per week. If increasing 5* rosters were increasing cutoff scores, we'd expect to see that reflected in the current data. That evidence doesn't currently exist.
As you say, I don't know what you tell you when the historical data says an effect your theory says should be happening now definitely isn't happening now, but you believe it will happen in the future because Omar says so.
I mean in some ways I could see it happening but I'm just wondering how long it'll even be worth it. I stopped grinding for 3* for a reason too
Can you show me this data? Specifically the 50-60k increase rate. That would be interesting.
Yeah I have that myself, where on earth is 50-60k coming from
I took the reddit data for the recent arena cutoffs and did two things. I charted all of the data and did a linear trendline. That trendline is 56122x + 10,000,000. That includes both "high value" and "low value" featureds, so I also did another one where I eliminated all the repeats. That one came out to 62270x + 8,000,000. So the slope of the average increase is somewhere between 56k and 62k.
However, I double checked my spreadsheet and I misquoted one thing: that's the average rate of increase per event, which means the average increase per week has to be double that, or 112k to 124k per week. I apologize for that error. But I also realized I made another error: I compared the scoring for Green Goblin with everything else. That event took place after the 14.0 changes that made arena faster. I should have stopped the chart before GG, and to be fair reverse analyzed a correction factor for GG after a few more weeks pass. When I do that, I get 33277x + 10,000,000. That's a weekly increase of about 66k.
I also went and dug up the old one. The old spreadsheet I posted last year showed a linear trendline of 93612x + 5,000,000 for the first featured score, which means that score is weekly by definition. So the current arena's score rise is, depending on how you look at it, roughly in the vicinity of the older one. With GG the rate is higher, without GG it is lower, and the odds are that GG overstates the long term trend by at least a little given 14.0's changes. It will take a few months under the new system to really be sure.
This is the chart I posted a while back:
This is the quickie one I did for the current arena system using the latest reddit data:
and this is a version that eliminates the lower scoring repeat featureds:
And this one also removes Green Goblin:
Sorry, the quickie ones are much less annotated, but the data comes from here and is easy to reproduce: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJtSVnjhhRNxpiuMR5uXrsTlrsXMjp9TNO7JHDXhtsk
I will say it is a hell of a lot easier posting these on the new forums than the old one.
That's definitely impressive and interesting to see. At this point we will just have to wait and see I think. I still believe what I said will be true, but the impact will vary. We have never had an opportunity to buy a crystal for 200 units that contains a full formed 5* in there. No matter how low the odds, I think that's game changing.
That's fair. I am curious to see what the odds of 5* are. I suspect very very low. Maybe lower than 4* is in PHC. If the odds of 3,4,5 are the same as 2,3,4 in the standard PHC, then depending on how you calculate value the value of the new crystal is as much as ten times higher. It costs twice as much, but the "value" of a 3* champ is in one sense 18-36 times more than a 2* champ: it takes that many 2* dups to generate enough fragments for a 3* champ (the difference is whether you are maxed or not and counting fragments from max sig crystals). Carried forward across the other ranks, that implies the crystal has between 18 and 36 times the value and twice the cost, so it has 9 to 18 times the value per unit.
I wouldn't do that if I was Kabam, but Kabam has not demonstrated a high fidelity with math. But I have difficulty believing they would make the odds of 4* champ in the new crystal the same as the odds of 3* in the PHC. That seems like a very high chance for 4* champ. So it is possible the odds for 5* champ are also much lower than the odds of 4* champ in the PHC.
(Also, I had to chop down the quote tree because the forum software began to cry)
Jeez, Does that people know they could buy a bike and ride the mountains/beachs with a loved partner.
For that much, I'm pretty sure they could buy the loved partner.
To each there own, I try not to judge spenders FOR spending. (Asking for things to buy is another thing). I wish Kabam gave them less options though, because it's definitely getting a little out of hand lately. But if they wanna spend and Kabam gave them the power to do so that's on them
I don't judge anybody neither, just asking, maybe they don't know it.
And trying to understand it. I would spend in games, but cmon.
Sure, but maybe they don't know it neither. Lol.
People tend to judge spending on mobile games unfairly in my opinion. People spend tons of money on exercise equipment, on expensive camera equipment, on fine dining restaurants, on travel, on Starbucks coffee. People have hobbies, past times, and preferences. Most of them don't have stigmas associated with spending a lot of money. Someone who has spend tens of thousands of dollars assembling a home entertainment system is probably getting extremely marginal improvement over my whatever setup from Costco, but if that's what they are into, few people would make fun of them for it or claim to not understand it.
In one sense, spending on a mobile game is different because it is spending on virtual items in a game. But really, what you are spending your money on is entertainment. The form that entertainment takes is not important. If it is a home entertainment system then yes you get some actual object for your money, but it is an object that won't last forever. One day it'll break or become obsolete, and then it is just a big bulky box. A $200 meal eventually becomes the same bathroom break as a McDonalds Happy Meal. A trip to the Grand Canyon eventually becomes a couple of photos and a memory of a hazy hole in the ground.
The only difference between spending money on a game you enjoy playing and all those other things is really just preference. $5k a week is a lot to spend on a game, but frankly it is a lot to spend on anything. I would raise an eyebrow if someone was spending $5k a week on their children.
I only hope the people spending that much can afford to spend that much on a past time. If they can, and that's what they enjoy, in my opinion it doesn't matter if that money goes into a mobile game or a trip to Tahiti.
So, it's very reasonable if someone is astonished because some people is spending the equivalent to a vehicle and/or a nice travel in few items for a mobile videogame.
Add to it, as you know and many people too, items aren't permanent value thing in an online videogame.
So it's not the same to spend in things with a permanent value, memories or whatever.
5k a week maybe is a lot to spend on anything, but some things are more than others.