Gambler's Fallacy... new change nerfs GM n Cav crystals

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  • This content has been removed.
  • ChampioncriticChampioncritic Member Posts: 3,347 ★★★★
    I can understand what the OP is thinking about, he wrongly believes that the 0.2% chance at a 5* nexus for example means that there is a 0.2% chance at doing a nexus crystal like draw whereby each of the 3 options might be a 5* or it might not be a 5*. However the correct understanding is that the 0.2% chance at a 5* nexus means that you can choose 1 of 3 guaranteed 5*s in this case.
  • Tiger360Tiger360 Member Posts: 1,696 ★★★★
    edited September 2020
    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    Wait I don’t know what this is all about and sorry if this question is stupid but what does it mean by the Nexus bit?
    Edit: wowcha apparently it means instead out of that 1% we have a 20% chance to get a Nexus 6 star crystal instead? That’s pretty sweet
  • Shift_exeShift_exe Member Posts: 21
    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
  • LormifLormif Member Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    A 6* and a 6* nexus still gives you a 6* so the drop rates for a 6* is the same. The only thing that decreased is the chance you will get a 6* without being able to choose from a list
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Member Posts: 8,672 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    You obviously differ, but you are just wrong. There are two different outcomes, but they both involve pulling 6*s. The odds of getting a non nexus 6* are decreased. The odds of getting a 6*, which will sometimes be a nexus are exactly the same. This isn't up for debate. It's very clear and obvious math. Do you agree that there is still a 99% chance of not pulling a 6*? That leaves 1%. You could make it 1% chance for a 6* as it was previously. You could break up the 1% into 6*, featured 6*, Nexus or whatever. It still amounts to 1%.
  • shadow_lurker22shadow_lurker22 Member Posts: 3,245 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    2 different outcomes that both result in a 6* honestly I don't know how people find this hard to understand. It doesn't matter that there is a 0.8% chance at a 6* and a 0.2% at a 6* nexus. The result is still a 1% chance at a 6* in total counting them as 2 different values doesn't change the fact that I'm both the 0.2 % variable and the 0.8% variable you get a 6* therefore the combined chance is 1%. Yes there are now 2 different outcomes BOTH regardless still result in a 6*.
  • Shift_exeShift_exe Member Posts: 21

    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    You obviously differ, but you are just wrong. There are two different outcomes, but they both involve pulling 6*s. The odds of getting a non nexus 6* are decreased. The odds of getting a 6*, which will sometimes be a nexus are exactly the same. This isn't up for debate. It's very clear and obvious math. Do you agree that there is still a 99% chance of not pulling a 6*? That leaves 1%. You could make it 1% chance for a 6* as it was previously. You could break up the 1% into 6*, featured 6*, Nexus or whatever. It still amounts to 1%.
    We'll see who's wrong and who's right next month... I dont care for the 99%... The outcomes are not the same if the number of obects in the crystal increases. It is expicitly stated that u have o.8% chance for a 6 star... A 6 star nexus crystal has even lower chance at 0.2%... The 6 star and the 6 star nexas crystal are both 2 diffenent objects u can get from the crystal so the chances of pulling them decreases... The drop rates are not set by volume of crystals... The drop rates are based of % of a single crystal...
  • Shift_exeShift_exe Member Posts: 21

    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    2 different outcomes that both result in a 6* honestly I don't know how people find this hard to understand. It doesn't matter that there is a 0.8% chance at a 6* and a 0.2% at a 6* nexus. The result is still a 1% chance at a 6* in total counting them as 2 different values doesn't change the fact that I'm both the 0.2 % variable and the 0.8% variable you get a 6* therefore the combined chance is 1%. Yes there are now 2 different outcomes BOTH regardless still result in a 6*.
    Maths dont work that way my friend... I say u go on youtube and watch some videos on probabilities that will clear up your views (if u understand 😉)
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  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Member Posts: 7,787 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    2 different outcomes that both result in a 6* honestly I don't know how people find this hard to understand. It doesn't matter that there is a 0.8% chance at a 6* and a 0.2% at a 6* nexus. The result is still a 1% chance at a 6* in total counting them as 2 different values doesn't change the fact that I'm both the 0.2 % variable and the 0.8% variable you get a 6* therefore the combined chance is 1%. Yes there are now 2 different outcomes BOTH regardless still result in a 6*.
    Maths dont work that way my friend... I say u go on youtube and watch some videos on probabilities that will clear up your views (if u understand 😉)
    0.8 + 0.2 = 1%
    A 6 star crystal and a 6 star nexus is still a 6 star.
  • Shift_exeShift_exe Member Posts: 21

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
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  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Member Posts: 7,787 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    2 different outcomes that equal to the same thing( A 6 star) ?
  • DjinDjin Member Posts: 1,962 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    You shouldn't have skipped Probability chapter.
  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Member Posts: 7,787 ★★★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    You have said it yourself, 0.8% for a 6 star and 0.2% for a 6 star nexus. Now, unless some miracle occurs, you are gonna pick a 6 star from the nexus so that by default equals to a 6 star. So indirectly, its 0.8% and 0.2% for a 6 star which means a 1% chance for 6 star.
  • ImGodMFImGodMF Member Posts: 459 ★★★
    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    The probabilities dont add up from consecutive crystals BUT ALL THE PROBABILITIES ADD UP IN A SINGLE CRYSTAL. Look at EVERY crystal in the game that shows the odds, they will all add up to 100%.
  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Member Posts: 7,787 ★★★★★
    Djin said:

    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    You shouldn't have skipped Probability chapter.
    He threw the book probably
  • GiulioV99GiulioV99 Member Posts: 98
    Mathematical engineer here, 6 star chance is still the same. Dna and other people explained it well.
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  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,193 ★★★★★
    edited September 2020
    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    How the hell do you explain a coin toss then? What does a 50% chance to get heads and a 50% chance to get tails add up to? If it's the SAME EVENT you can add probabilities together. I feel like the deniers have all taken crazy pills 🙄🙄🙄
  • edited September 2020
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  • Shamir51Shamir51 Member Posts: 921 ★★★★
    HI_guys said:

    Shamir51 said:

    Shift_exe said:

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2
    Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL.
    U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
    It’s clear Maths and Logical Reasoning is something you really struggle with.

    Let’s see if your English, Comprehension and Verbsl Reasoning skills are any better.



    Why don’t you go ahead and point out exactly where it says the chance for a regular 6* is 0.8%.
    Well , a regular 6* champ is now .8. but overall chance to get a 5* remains the same
    We know that.

    But this guy keeps barking on about 2 different events.
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  • SeraphionSeraphion Member Posts: 1,496 ★★★★
    Okay lets make it easy for everyone thats not so good with math:

    If you have a crystal that has:

    50% chance to pull a 6*

    and

    50% chance to pull a nexus 6*


    How high is the chance that you will pull a 6* ?

    I think that should solve all brain knots that are left :)
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