Gambler's Fallacy... new change nerfs GM n Cav crystals

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  • Fred_JoeityFred_Joeity Member Posts: 1,168 ★★★
    I love that this thread is still a thing
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  • TheBestinTuakauTheBestinTuakau Member Posts: 955 ★★★
    Seems like some of you can't handle decimal places

    Imagine a crystal where there's a 50% chance of getting gold, 25% of a 5 star champion and a 25% chance of getting a 5 star nexus crystal. The odds of getting a 5 star champion is 50%, correct? Simply because 25+25=50.

    Now with the new cavalier droprates: 0.8% for a 6 star champion and a 0.2% chance for a 6 star nexus. The odds of getting a 6 star champion is still the same 1%. Because 0.2+0.8=1.
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 13,163 Guardian
    Creator hasn’t even logged back in the last several days to see any of these correct counterpoints. And at this point, don’t know how far back it has even been now that someone “genuinely” was still trying to argue similarly that the odds are less.
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  • EtjamaEtjama Member Posts: 7,981 ★★★★★

    Creator hasn’t even logged back in the last several days to see any of these correct counterpoints. And at this point, don’t know how far back it has even been now that someone “genuinely” was still trying to argue similarly that the odds are less.

    Good, our job has been accomplished then.
  • DragonSlayerOP7DragonSlayerOP7 Member Posts: 3

    It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

    A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

    A quote from Wikipedia's page on Gambler's Fallacy: "The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past."
    The keyword here being "errorneous", meaning incorrect. LMAO u played urself
  • shadow_lurker22shadow_lurker22 Member Posts: 3,245 ★★★★★
    edited September 2020
    Shift_exe said:

    Shift_exe said:

    Kpatrix said:

    Kade7175 said:

    Shamir51 said:

    You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

    When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

    Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

    they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.
    If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

    There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

    To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

    There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

    I differ with ur argument... Its the dice of rng is rolled for every single crystal so if the rates are chaged at 0.8% and 0.2% it drastically changes the roll as u have 2 different outcomes:- one being the 6 star and the other 6 star nexas crystal... So the individual droprates of 6 star has actually been decreased...
    2 different outcomes that both result in a 6* honestly I don't know how people find this hard to understand. It doesn't matter that there is a 0.8% chance at a 6* and a 0.2% at a 6* nexus. The result is still a 1% chance at a 6* in total counting them as 2 different values doesn't change the fact that I'm both the 0.2 % variable and the 0.8% variable you get a 6* therefore the combined chance is 1%. Yes there are now 2 different outcomes BOTH regardless still result in a 6*.
    Maths dont work that way my friend... I say u go on youtube and watch some videos on probabilities that will clear up your views (if u understand 😉)
    Your hopeless that's is exactly how math works
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