It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.
A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh
They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2 Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL. U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
That moment when you make a complete fool of yourself and dont even notice it.
I swear this posts is the right thing to wake up to on a sunday. Makes my day.
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. ... They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2 Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL. U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
Let’s see if this will clear thing up for him. Let’s make a very Special Reward Crystal, which has 100 different 6* champs as potential drops, and the odds for each of those 100 different 6* champs are each listed individually as having their own 1% chance to get from this Special Reward Crystal. Ie... 6* Iceman = 1.0% 6* CapIW = 1.0% 6* Magneto = 1.0% etc, etc...
Now, according to him, you can NOT add up all those 100x of 1% potentials to come up with a 100% chance that you will get a 6* champ ???
So what might you potentially be able to pull from a crystal like that ?? A 3* champ instead ???
So, YES, 100 different potential 1% chances for a single occurrence do indeed add up to 100%. And so does 0.8% and 0.2% add up to 1.0%
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.
A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh
They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2 Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL. U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
Dude, WHAT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS?!?!?! You could ask a second grader, "If there's an 80% of you getting a cookie, and a 20% chance of you getting to choose between 3 cookies, are you guaranteed to get a cookie?" They'd say yes. AND THEY'D BE FREAKIN' RIGHT!!!
Everyone in this thread is doing the math wrong and seriously underestimating how good this change is..
Before the change there was 0% chance at a 6* nexus crystal. Now there is >0% chance at one. Therefore the new crystal is infinitely better than the previous crystal.
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.
A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh
They are adding the probabilties of two different events happening thats 1. Getting a 6 star directly = 0.8 and 2. Getting a 6 star nexus = 0.2 Now probabilities dont work that way... From a single crystal u have either 0.8% chance to get a 6 star or a 0.2% chance to get a 6 STAR NEXUS CRYSTAL. U CANT ADD THE PROBABILITIES OF 2 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES 😂 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤯
You can't add the probability of two independent probabilities. But you can add the probabilities of two mutually exclusive events. This is literally the foundation of probability. The odds of an event occurring are the sum of the odds of all possible mutually exclusive ways for that event to occur. This is the fundamental principle of all statistical calculations.
The classical example is calculating the odds of rolling seven on two standard six sided dice. There are six ways for that to happen: rolling 1/6, 2/5, 3/4, 4/3, 5/2, 6/1. There are thirty six ways for dice to come up, each equally likely, so the odds of any one roll coming up are one in 36. The odds of rolling seven are thus the odds of each way to roll seven added together, which is 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 = 6/36 = 1/6. Anyone who has stepped foot in a probability and statistics class will recognize this calculation as being the fundamental idea behind all probability calculations.
So if you can add here, why can't you add in general? Because in general when talking about *independent* probabilities people don't count all the actual possibilities. If you flip a coin, there's only two *mutually exclusive* possibilities. Heads or Tails. If there's a 50% chance for heads and 50% chance for tails, the odds of either heads or tails coming up is 100%, because of course. But if you're flipping *two* coins and the odds of coming up heads is 50% each flip, the odds of getting heads at least once is *not* 100% because in this case there are *four* possibilities: HH, HT, TH, TT. The odds of the first coin flipping heads is 50%, but that accounts for two possibilities: HH and HT. The odds of the second coin flipping heads is also 50%, and that also accounts for two possibilities: TH and HH. But when you add them together, you are adding the probability of the two flips coming up HH or HT, plus the odds of the coin coming up TH and HH. Notice you're double counting the "HH" possibility.
But if you count *CORRECTLY* you can add. You can add the probability of flipping HH plus HT plus TH to find the probability of flipping at least one Head, which is 25% + 25% + 25% = 75% which is the correct answer. Because this counts all mutually exclusive possibilities, and doesn't double count anything.
Probably that guy heard form somewhere that you can't directly add different probabilities. Which isn't false always. And then decided to use it everywhere
Math in general is vulnerable to this, and probability and statistics is probably the part of math where the average person is going to fall into this trap the most often.
Most people don't really learn math. They learn arithmetic. All other math gets reduced to arithmetic. The general principles get forgotten, if they are ever learned in the first place, and the calculation formulas are the only things people remember, if they even remember that. Probability and statistics is an area of math where only knowing the formulas but not the context for them will burn you alive.
I'm sure 90% of the people who assert, then defend with a cock-suredness only outmatched by their complete ridiculousness, weird ideas like this found themselves observing a discussion where someone was being corrected on an error, and thinks that correction is some global principle they can just drop randomly anywhere. "You can't add probabilities" is definitely one of those. It is a simplification of a more general idea that you cannot add probabilities without knowing if they represent mutually exclusive outcomes. The problem occurs when people drop the last part, without understanding its significance.
this is absurd and not logical. all these different % hurts my brain and strain my eyes. I thought kabam was going for simplicity. how hard was it to raise the 5 star chance to 5% and the nexus chance up to 1%?? we all know all these numbers are just bunch of $%$U&^&*&$ and reality is more like 0.00000000001% to pull any of those 2.
So I read everything in this entire thread...and I need clarification. So what everybody is trying to say is that there is a 0% chance of pulling Batman from the new Cavalier Crystal's? SMH....Kabam...
I ask a genuine question and nobody bothers. Some guy posts a dumb comment and a hundred people rush in(including me) with enough information to do a thesis
Because SOMEONE'S WRONG ON THE INTERNET! is the greatest human lure devised by mankind. Makes catnip look like pepper spray.
Lol some of the things I have read here... anyways I will try to explain them in terms of RNG.
RNG, which stands for random number generator, is how these crystals work. Behind all those fancy crystal spinners is just a code which checks which number popped up from the RNG and gives you what that number corresponds to. To simplify things, I'll try to explain how RNG works using the regular cavalier crystal. We know that:
So consider this my way of explaining RNG. The numbers from 1 to 1000 are assigned to the star rarities in accordance to the percentages given above. So lets say numbers from 1 to 500, a total of 500, are assigned as 3 star numbers. This means if RNG gives a number that is from 1 to 500, the outcome of that crystal is a 3 star. Now assign numbers from 501 to 880, a total of 380 numbers, as 4 star numbers. Similarly if RNG gives a number that is from 501 to 880, the crystal yields a 4 star. By the same logic numbers from 881 to 990 are assigned to 5 stars and 991 to 1000 are assigned to 6 stars.
Now in the new system we were told this: 6-Star Hero - 1% (0.2% chance 6-Star Nexus) Remember those 10 numbers from 991 to 1000? Now with the new change we have 991 to 998 giving the output randomly selected (subject to another RNG) as it did before but 999 and 1000 are different. Different because if the RNG generates those 2 numbers you will have the output of the 6 star Nexus. Overall 991 to 1000 still gives 6 star champions but now if RNG generates 999 or 1000, you get a 6 Star Nexus, which is still a 6 star champ, so the 6 star drop rate is not changing like many have stated, it is just how you obtain the 6 star that is altered a little bit.
Without loss of generality, the same logic would apply to the numbers from 881 to 990 which represented 5 star outputs. This is probably the simplest way I can put it. I hope this helps those who are confused.
Note that RNG is not usually determined by discrete numbers but instead it is determined by seeing which interval the generated number ,which is 0 and 1, falls into, which determines the output. The intervals mentioned above are also between 0 and 1. Example: Heads can be given the interval [0,0.5) and tails [0.5,1, if RNG gives 0.344 then the output is heads, if it is say 0.8663526 then the output is tails. Ok now I am done, simple right?
Thanks for explaining that in a way most can understand. The whole time I'm reading it a roulette wheel is spinning in my head, lol, not sure why. It's crazy to think that they can take something as simple as odds, which are very simple at there most basic, and just complicate them so much. But 1 thing that always holds true, a computer can not generate anything randomly, there's always a pattern, it may be to complex for any mortal to see, but it's there.
I am really not even sure why gamblers fallacy was even brought into this. Gamblers fallacy is used all the time on the forums for people getting mad that they did not pull a champ they wanted out of x champs because they assumed that the cumulative probability of an event was something that works in small numbers, but even in the situation the OP brought it up in it has no bearing.
Lol some of the things I have read here... anyways I will try to explain them in terms of RNG.
RNG, which stands for random number generator, is how these crystals work. Behind all those fancy crystal spinners is just a code which checks which number popped up from the RNG and gives you what that number corresponds to. To simplify things, I'll try to explain how RNG works using the regular cavalier crystal. We know that:
So consider this my way of explaining RNG. The numbers from 1 to 1000 are assigned to the star rarities in accordance to the percentages given above. So lets say numbers from 1 to 500, a total of 500, are assigned as 3 star numbers. This means if RNG gives a number that is from 1 to 500, the outcome of that crystal is a 3 star. Now assign numbers from 501 to 880, a total of 380 numbers, as 4 star numbers. Similarly if RNG gives a number that is from 501 to 880, the crystal yields a 4 star. By the same logic numbers from 881 to 990 are assigned to 5 stars and 991 to 1000 are assigned to 6 stars.
Now in the new system we were told this: 6-Star Hero - 1% (0.2% chance 6-Star Nexus) Remember those 10 numbers from 991 to 1000? Now with the new change we have 991 to 998 giving the output randomly selected (subject to another RNG) as it did before but 999 and 1000 are different. Different because if the RNG generates those 2 numbers you will have the output of the 6 star Nexus. Overall 991 to 1000 still gives 6 star champions but now if RNG generates 999 or 1000, you get a 6 Star Nexus, which is still a 6 star champ, so the 6 star drop rate is not changing like many have stated, it is just how you obtain the 6 star that is altered a little bit.
Without loss of generality, the same logic would apply to the numbers from 881 to 990 which represented 5 star outputs. This is probably the simplest way I can put it. I hope this helps those who are confused.
Note that RNG is not usually determined by discrete numbers but instead it is determined by seeing which interval the generated number ,which is 0 and 1, falls into, which determines the output. The intervals mentioned above are also between 0 and 1. Example: Heads can be given the interval [0,0.5) and tails [0.5,1, if RNG gives 0.344 then the output is heads, if it is say 0.8663526 then the output is tails. Ok now I am done, simple right?
Thanks for explaining that in a way most can understand. The whole time I'm reading it a roulette wheel is spinning in my head, lol, not sure why. It's crazy to think that they can take something as simple as odds, which are very simple at there most basic, and just complicate them so much. But 1 thing that always holds true, a computer can not generate anything randomly, there's always a pattern, it may be to complex for any mortal to see, but it's there.
That does not always hold true. It is possible, just difficult for a computer to generate a a "true" random number as opposed to a "pseudo" random number. For the use here though there is no need for a true random number generator, because people are not really going to be trying to guess the timings to a measurable effect to be able to guess crystal outcomes. It would be way too much effort for no rewards, because they would need to know the underlying algorithm, as well as the seed in order for it to work. The only field where this is really important is in information security.
This guy is foreshadowing what would be the after affects of distance learning, hilarious how he contradicts himself under all the internet screaming and emojis.
I feel bad for his family/friends if he ever watches a flat earth doc on YT.
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.
A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh
His description of a better crystal is what the crystal is lol I didn’t see that
Comments
I swear this posts is the right thing to wake up to on a sunday. Makes my day.
Let’s make a very Special Reward Crystal, which has 100 different 6* champs as potential drops, and the odds for each of those 100 different 6* champs are each listed individually as having their own 1% chance to get from this Special Reward Crystal.
Ie... 6* Iceman = 1.0%
6* CapIW = 1.0%
6* Magneto = 1.0%
etc, etc...
Now, according to him, you can NOT add up all those 100x of 1% potentials to come up with a 100% chance that you will get a 6* champ ???
So what might you potentially be able to pull from a crystal like that ?? A 3* champ instead ???
So, YES, 100 different potential 1% chances for a single occurrence do indeed add up to 100%.
And so does 0.8% and 0.2% add up to 1.0%
Before the change there was 0% chance at a 6* nexus crystal. Now there is >0% chance at one. Therefore the new crystal is infinitely better than the previous crystal.
The classical example is calculating the odds of rolling seven on two standard six sided dice. There are six ways for that to happen: rolling 1/6, 2/5, 3/4, 4/3, 5/2, 6/1. There are thirty six ways for dice to come up, each equally likely, so the odds of any one roll coming up are one in 36. The odds of rolling seven are thus the odds of each way to roll seven added together, which is 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 = 6/36 = 1/6. Anyone who has stepped foot in a probability and statistics class will recognize this calculation as being the fundamental idea behind all probability calculations.
So if you can add here, why can't you add in general? Because in general when talking about *independent* probabilities people don't count all the actual possibilities. If you flip a coin, there's only two *mutually exclusive* possibilities. Heads or Tails. If there's a 50% chance for heads and 50% chance for tails, the odds of either heads or tails coming up is 100%, because of course. But if you're flipping *two* coins and the odds of coming up heads is 50% each flip, the odds of getting heads at least once is *not* 100% because in this case there are *four* possibilities: HH, HT, TH, TT. The odds of the first coin flipping heads is 50%, but that accounts for two possibilities: HH and HT. The odds of the second coin flipping heads is also 50%, and that also accounts for two possibilities: TH and HH. But when you add them together, you are adding the probability of the two flips coming up HH or HT, plus the odds of the coin coming up TH and HH. Notice you're double counting the "HH" possibility.
But if you count *CORRECTLY* you can add. You can add the probability of flipping HH plus HT plus TH to find the probability of flipping at least one Head, which is 25% + 25% + 25% = 75% which is the correct answer. Because this counts all mutually exclusive possibilities, and doesn't double count anything.
Most people don't really learn math. They learn arithmetic. All other math gets reduced to arithmetic. The general principles get forgotten, if they are ever learned in the first place, and the calculation formulas are the only things people remember, if they even remember that. Probability and statistics is an area of math where only knowing the formulas but not the context for them will burn you alive.
I'm sure 90% of the people who assert, then defend with a cock-suredness only outmatched by their complete ridiculousness, weird ideas like this found themselves observing a discussion where someone was being corrected on an error, and thinks that correction is some global principle they can just drop randomly anywhere. "You can't add probabilities" is definitely one of those. It is a simplification of a more general idea that you cannot add probabilities without knowing if they represent mutually exclusive outcomes. The problem occurs when people drop the last part, without understanding its significance.
I feel bad for his family/friends if he ever watches a flat earth doc on YT.