Not at all, and this is why I need somebody who understands this better to explain. This is not about a chance to get 30%, it's about everything averaging out to 30% on average when opening your crystals. This is taking things like Drop Rates and amount into account. There is no world in which a temporary 20% boost is better here.
In the world where I open 1 gold crystal at a time the boost is 100% better.
Things like this continuously happening is the exact reason veterans have lost all trust in the developers and quit everyday
Editing this as since posted a flat 30% rate is being implemented. Great to see the change is going to implemented. Baffled it wasn’t like this to begin with. Does no one do any sense checking before implementing these things.
To be honest, that's what I would have done: just increased the drop values by 30%, because that would be very visibly obvious. However, there is a reasonable reason to alter the drop percentages rather than the drop values. The drop rates currently weight towards the lower drop values - in other words the lower ones are more common than the higher ones. If you alter those percentages to increase the yield by 30%, you will increase the drop rates of the higher value drops and lower the drop rates of the lower value drops, and this will not only increase the average return, it will narrow the distribution curve of all possible drop values.
Or to put it in colloquial terms, changing the values increases every value by 30%, so whatever players were getting before, they are now getting 30% more, but the odds of getting below average and above average returns remains exactly the same. Changing the drop odds changes the average return by 30%, and also lowers the odds of getting below average returns.
It would actually be better for the players, but because it isn't obvious it would take time for that behavior to be measurable. Unfortunately, obvious is probably more acceptable here than optimal.
Actually, I'm going to revise what I said up there, as I'm still catching up with what seems to have been the change. It sounds like the devs altered some but not all the drop possibilities, and if that's the case, then that's completely different, somewhat confusing, and totally weird.
I understand the nature for doing it the other way. It’s why I’ll pop 1 Thronebreaker arena crystal for 50k versus of in the hopes of getting 1k+ of units in 1 roll rather than opening 25 of the normal arena units. But for gold we are used to a flat rate boost and if the aim is for us not to hoard gold then I just want to see 30% more gold. Whenever I open 10 uncollected gold crystals and only ever see 15k per crystal, weighing the pulls so the rarer gold pulls give more may over time work out, but there’s already so much RNG in the game, I have a preference for the guarantee on this. I don’t the odds of pulling the rarest gold value, it might be 0.05% for all I know so in theory, pulling that value might get me to the ‘30%’ extra gold but I don’t trust that I’ll get to 30% very often.
Also if they were going for a weighed approach then really they should have communicated this from the beginning.
The Gold increase has gone live (in fact, it went live before 10). I'm not good at math, but the changes were made to give an approximate 30% boost across all crystals.
AFAIK: On a 1 to 1 crystal rate, it wouldn't look like much of an increase, but opening a bunch of them will net out to that increase.
I'm gonna get somebody much better at math to explain this though, so stay tuned on exactly how this works.
Please do get a better explanation because the previous explaination was a 30% per crystal not over a batch of crystals.
It is 30% per crystal. 30% of 1 crystal is barely anything, that's what he in stating. If you get 10k Gold and it's a 30% boost, you'll get 13k. Opening a few hundred you will actually notice the boost. That's what Mike is talking about.
Except it’s not 30% per crystal. If that were the case, the minimum would have increased by 30%. We can clearly see it hasn’t. They seemingly did something with the odds to “average out to a 30% increase” which is why people are mad. They made it seem as if they’d do a flat 30% increase to all crystals, just like the old boost did at 20%.
Can you explain why this is worse? I'd like to take that to the team. If the increase is to odds to give you more gold, I'm not sure why that's worse than just a plain boost to gold if it averages out to the same thing.
If I open a gold crystal right now I will get 2500 gold (instead of the previous 2400) gold. With the "gold event" I would have gotten 2880 because it had a 20% boost.
This change doesn't guarantee 30% more gold and requires RNG to get more gold because some crystals still have the same amount at the lower levels of the rewards (which we all know happens more often than higher levels).
The implication of your original announcement was a flat 30% increase to all values of gold in crystals.
That's understandable. I was a little vague in that post but purposely said "approximately 30%" because we did know that it will never be a 1 to 1 increase. I'm still getting more info from the Math folks on the methods to their madness, and will share what their thoughts were.
I hear what your now saying Miike but this will not stop people saving crystals though will it..... The statement clearly made reference to the previous 20% bonus on all gold acquired event that people saved for and the change would be more, close to 30% and with what the last event done, it was on all crystals/items etc that were opened, so is what we were all expecting to happen. And unless that is what the change is going to be, what has been done now will not solve a thing for people hoarding crystals will it? More clarity needs to be given from the people at the top as again we are all left scratching our heads because we all understood it be like the previous event we all waited for but a permanent better increase per crystal and this does not seem to have happened. We have enough RNG in the game to know that we will lose most of the time so the change at present will not keep the masses happy.
To be honest, that's what I would have done: just increased the drop values by 30%, because that would be very visibly obvious. However, there is a reasonable reason to alter the drop percentages rather than the drop values. The drop rates currently weight towards the lower drop values - in other words the lower ones are more common than the higher ones. If you alter those percentages to increase the yield by 30%, you will increase the drop rates of the higher value drops and lower the drop rates of the lower value drops, and this will not only increase the average return, it will narrow the distribution curve of all possible drop values.
Or to put it in colloquial terms, changing the values increases every value by 30%, so whatever players were getting before, they are now getting 30% more, but the odds of getting below average and above average returns remains exactly the same. Changing the drop odds changes the average return by 30%, and also lowers the odds of getting below average returns.
It would actually be better for the players, but because it isn't obvious it would take time for that behavior to be measurable. Unfortunately, obvious is probably more acceptable here than optimal.
Actually, I'm going to revise what I said up there, as I'm still catching up with what seems to have been the change. It sounds like the devs altered some but not all the drop possibilities, and if that's the case, then that's completely different, somewhat confusing, and totally weird.
If they actually evened out the distribution, then yes, I would agree that it's more beneficial.
I think the main problem here is that the gold crystals are not paid crystals, hence, they are under no obligation to disclose the drops rates. They could've evened out the distribution, or they could've skewed it even more and added a "jackpot" drop.
Here is a PSA for once the the flat 30% increase goes live: It is still possible to get less than 30% increase with your crystal openings! Again, this is because these gold crystals contains different value drops. Take the UC crystal for example, the minimum drop is 15k, but it could drop something more, maybe 20k, maybe 25k. Let's say you open 10 of them and get: 5x 15k, 2x 20k, 3x 25k for a total of 190k. After the 30% increase, the 15k will be come 19.5k, but what if you open 10 crystals and get all 19.5k drops? In that case, your total would be 195k, definitely not a 30% increase.
So don't expect all your gold crystal openings to increase by a flat 30%. In the short term, there could still be variances.
So many people have already opened their gold/arena crystals. Just eat your mistake, leave things as they are and compensate everyone with gold. @Kabam Miike
Update: I spoke to the team about the confusion here and the expectations. We get the confusion and are going to make changes to just do the 30% update across all good pools instead of trying to make work.
So, to both try to explain why this works, and what is kind of wrong with it, an example.
We know that the UC crystals drop 15, 40, 75, 150 thousand gold. They tell us that.
They don't tell us the drop rates.
It could be that we get 97% 15, 1% 40, 1%75, 1%150. (Its probably not this. People have tried to do analysis on this before, its better than this, this is just an example) It would give an expected return of 17.2K. To increase it 30% (to 22.3K) you could do that by changing the numbers to something like 93% 15, 1% 40, 1% 75, 5% 150.
So, if I pull an infinite number of crystals, I'll see it eventually converge to 30% higher overall.
If I pull 3 crystals though, I probably don't see any change at all (a few lucky few will see really amazingly great results, most people won't).
So what people are mad about is they expected to see some benefit, even for a low sample size. And since you don't tell us the drop rates, we've really got no idea how much we've got to pull to expect to see an increase.
For the people really torqued about this though, even with the crappy example I gave there, the number of crystals you've got to pull to expect to see an increase is really not that huge, on the order of 10s, not 100s. The rates are probably something more like 50, 30, 15, 5, and they probably applied the increase gradually, rather than just increased the chances of hitting the jackpot. So, for people that popped 100s of crystals, you probably still saw the same increase that you would have with a flat base rate increase, and you're not losing out because you already opened some. And this applies over time. So if I open 10 today, 10 tomorrow, and 10 next week, vs saving up and opening all 30 at the same time next week, its going to be the same results. Hoarding still gives no benefit.
All that said, I'm glad Kabam is walking this back, because no matter that the math works out the same, a 30% flat increase to base values is both easier for the players to understand, and more transparent so we can accurately reset our expectations.
Thanks @Kabam Miike for the updates. Please send in game message to stop opening Gold Crystals. Also like to know what will happen to those who already opened the Gold Crystals. Any plan for that?
Then it takes a lot of averages and overall it equates to 30%
This seems very wrong and a way easier solution would’ve been to just add 30% to every value in the gold crystal.
Exactly this. Kabam up to their old tricks again. Just make it a 30% increase per crystal and none of this “chance” ****. When is Kabam going to figure out that they make customers angry more often than happy? Don’t tell us 30% if that 30% chance is a once in a lifetime type chance. Can I please be hired to manage this games offering? I will guarantee you more happy customers and more money in your pockets.
@Kabam Miike Your changes in Gold Crystal will make even Further Bigger problem for you guys and community
Regarding compensation who already opened. Instead of Change Pls compensate Gold to Everyone. Otherwise Refund your Gold and Give my 4k Gold Crystals Back.
Update: I spoke to the team about the confusion here and the expectations. We get the confusion and are going to make changes to just do the 30% update across all good pools instead of trying to make work.
More details soon!
Thanks for finding out more info Miike, look forward to hearing the resolution.
Not at all, and this is why I need somebody who understands this better to explain. This is not about a chance to get 30%, it's about everything averaging out to 30% on average when opening your crystals. This is taking things like Drop Rates and amount into account. There is no world in which a temporary 20% boost is better here.
If you are “averaging” then this is still a form of “chance”. Plus if this increase was to stop people from hoarding gold crystals to lighten the load on the servers, this won’t help because I guarantee there are people that believe in popping more crystals at once in order to get a better “average or chance”. You are making the servers calculate more trying to average that 30%, when you could lighten the load and just adjust the minimum by 30%
So now that this is going to be implemented correctly, Please provide compensation to the people who popped crystals based on your "its live now" post @Kabam Miike
Comments
In the world where I open 1 gold crystal at a time the boost is 100% better.
Things like this continuously happening is the exact reason veterans have lost all trust in the developers and quit everyday
Also if they were going for a weighed approach then really they should have communicated this from the beginning.
More clarity needs to be given from the people at the top as again we are all left scratching our heads because we all understood it be like the previous event we all waited for but a permanent better increase per crystal and this does not seem to have happened. We have enough RNG in the game to know that we will lose most of the time so the change at present will not keep the masses happy.
I think the main problem here is that the gold crystals are not paid crystals, hence, they are under no obligation to disclose the drops rates. They could've evened out the distribution, or they could've skewed it even more and added a "jackpot" drop.
Here is a PSA for once the the flat 30% increase goes live:
It is still possible to get less than 30% increase with your crystal openings!
Again, this is because these gold crystals contains different value drops. Take the UC crystal for example, the minimum drop is 15k, but it could drop something more, maybe 20k, maybe 25k.
Let's say you open 10 of them and get: 5x 15k, 2x 20k, 3x 25k for a total of 190k.
After the 30% increase, the 15k will be come 19.5k, but what if you open 10 crystals and get all 19.5k drops? In that case, your total would be 195k, definitely not a 30% increase.
So don't expect all your gold crystal openings to increase by a flat 30%. In the short term, there could still be variances.
We know that the UC crystals drop 15, 40, 75, 150 thousand gold. They tell us that.
They don't tell us the drop rates.
It could be that we get 97% 15, 1% 40, 1%75, 1%150. (Its probably not this. People have tried to do analysis on this before, its better than this, this is just an example) It would give an expected return of 17.2K. To increase it 30% (to 22.3K) you could do that by changing the numbers to something like 93% 15, 1% 40, 1% 75, 5% 150.
So, if I pull an infinite number of crystals, I'll see it eventually converge to 30% higher overall.
If I pull 3 crystals though, I probably don't see any change at all (a few lucky few will see really amazingly great results, most people won't).
So what people are mad about is they expected to see some benefit, even for a low sample size. And since you don't tell us the drop rates, we've really got no idea how much we've got to pull to expect to see an increase.
For the people really torqued about this though, even with the crappy example I gave there, the number of crystals you've got to pull to expect to see an increase is really not that huge, on the order of 10s, not 100s. The rates are probably something more like 50, 30, 15, 5, and they probably applied the increase gradually, rather than just increased the chances of hitting the jackpot. So, for people that popped 100s of crystals, you probably still saw the same increase that you would have with a flat base rate increase, and you're not losing out because you already opened some. And this applies over time. So if I open 10 today, 10 tomorrow, and 10 next week, vs saving up and opening all 30 at the same time next week, its going to be the same results. Hoarding still gives no benefit.
All that said, I'm glad Kabam is walking this back, because no matter that the math works out the same, a 30% flat increase to base values is both easier for the players to understand, and more transparent so we can accurately reset our expectations.
Please send in game message to stop opening Gold Crystals. Also like to know what will happen to those who already opened the Gold Crystals. Any plan for that?
reading your first post abt Gold boost live
Now u guys saying that u gonna change
This is totally Unfair I myself opened more than 4k crystals of gold
Around 1.5k uc ones
1.5k normal ones
1k Greater Gold ones
Regarding compensation who already opened.
Instead of Change Pls compensate Gold to Everyone.
Otherwise Refund your Gold and Give my 4k Gold Crystals Back.
Make this right.