Predict final Realm points for Battleground Blitz

Just a friendly wager—curious to see where everyone thinks we hit. Winner to receive a fabulous no-prize.

DZ

Comments

I hit gladiator circuit yesterday The She Hulk piece was my primary concern, but I was all in to push for the higher reward in the community event. However, the number of rage quits I’ve experienced over the last 24 hours is ridiculous. At least 50 percent, and I played a lot of matches yesterday. No way am I wasting my elders marks on fights that mean nothing or add nothing . I’ll be saving them for next season. I’ll probably just do the dailies and that’ll be good enough for me.
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BigBlueOx

The math ain’t looking good…

DrZola

It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola

kikiFurieux

The question is why does Kabam setup it's player community to fail like that? It looks like the best milestones will not be reached at all.
At first I thought we'd get to 1b but now I doubt it...
Kabam knows how many crystals we open in a month (on average), they know how many BG fights we do in a month, they know how many Elder's mark we use so why set us up to fail like that? twice!
It doesn't make sense.
The only thing they should do is reassess the milestones.
Also, I have to say that removing the solo event was a bad idea, nothing worse than playing like usual and get nothing for it because either other players don't play ball or because the company grossly overestimated the score

Sceptilemaniac

I'm currently in GC, 4M account with 4-5 R3s. Your average valiant player.
I have 2600 points. Only used elder marks upto this point.
Can't seem to win a match in GC now.
I've spent more elder marks than I do every season (I don't push in GC) and I'm still only halfway to the final "minimum"
To top that, the solo event is gone.
I am 100% not playing any more except for the solo objective tickets.
Some anniversary.

altavista

I especially think that the Crit Me meta in GC also discourages casual players from continuing to play GC. I'm a typical Valiant (4 R3's) and I am dreading reaching GC. So I can imagine that other players feeling the same or worse.

I think this is the problem in a nutshell. The high end Realm milestones require more casual and novice players playing. Devout BG players are not enough to reach the Realm milestones.

Defenders of the event claim that once players make it to GC that that Realm points earned will pick up. But since casual players are likely discouraged from playing GC, if they stop playing or even decrease the amount played in GC compared to VT, then the mythical Realm point increase is not going to come.

Asim38

I hope the current average would stick and get a slight boost getting us all to 1B; its a possibility for sure. But once folks know they have reached 5k personal participation points for max rewards, elder marks start running low or run out entirely, and losses pile up in GC, they will be severely demotivated to power through more. I would likely reach 5k points by Day 20 but that's because I saved elder marks last season so the starting boost after 5 matches won't overshoot me past max threshold. Depending on how much I still have left and whether the pace of points per day for the event would get us the max milestone, I might want to save EMs for next season. And I am sure many will have the same thought process because in GC using EMs is only good if the player base as a whole is striving to reach the final goal.

Keep in mind that there is no solo Battlegrounds event so everyone is a little less incentivized even though having the alliance event is great because there are people like myself who do play Battlegrounds but their alliances aren't serious Battlegrounds alliances. Even if early averages might suggest we could make it, there will be a burnout in different ways and I just don't see it happening. My early estimate was well below. I felt even 500M was well out of reach. So I am very impressed with what we have achieved so far but I think we will fall short.

TLDR: We will fall short due to human factors like burnout, uncertainty of reaching higher milestones, demotivation from losses in GCs, running into a progression brick wall in VT, and achieving highest participation requirement (sentiment that "I have done my part, its up to others to do their part"). Plus limitation of Elder Marks because energy points aren't worth it.

Edit: Also the distribution of milestones makes me wonder if 1B was the stretch achievement from Kabam and anything beyond 1B was meant to be bonus.

BringPopcorn

So by my personal calculations, I have reached my usual Alliance minimum, which means I gotta be close to my individual event last milestone...
Use same ammount of resources and grab 6k 6* shards... What a great event...
Is this really how the 2nd year of the "most competitive" mode in the game is celebrated? People depending on players that don't even have a chance to compete?

kikiFurieux

The harsh reality is that when the event came out we would need to do 54M/day to reach 1.5b.
Now, given that we didn't do those points we need to do almost 61M/day.
Granted that GC gives more points but we need to keep in mind that people won't use all their EM on that event, for exemple I won't go lower than 6800 just to have enough to start next season and go close to 9k.
So people might play in GC but it will mostly be with energy, also they will play way less since some just want URU III.
All of that to say: we won't make it and it's Kabam's fault (not enough milestones, expectations too high, lack of motivation, etc...)

DrZola

I’m going to stick to my selected range, albeit the lower end of it.

I tend to forget about BGs for a couple of days when things reach major slog mode. Having reached that point, I’m good to let it ride for a few.

Dr. Zola

BringPopcorn

I wrote this on another post, at this time with the higher chance of failure.. I am evaluating the value of EMs, I might get more rewards next season with them...

ShoNuff29

Everyone is gonna have to really kick it into gear if we want that Titan milestone. Only week 1 though.

_Pez_

Getting fewer 7* and titan shards than a regular solo event season is going to blow!

DrZola

This is the balancing test, isn’t it? A little boost in Marks for the milestones would have been welcome.

Dr. Zola

kikiFurieux

I wish Kabam would speak up before people start to freak out.
Explain yourself, tell us there is a plan, that you have no doubt we'll reach the 1.5b because based on previous seasons, etc... SAY SOMETHING

BringPopcorn

Actually not moving them from the Alliance Event would have helped... They doubled the EM access; but put them on milestones we are barely reaching 🤣

Asim38

If this continues, a new acronym will be formed: READ - Realm Events Are Dead. 2 Realm events, player base not being able to even scratch the top milestone prize. WHY? Where is the data? At a minimum, the top milestone should be within grasp. That is not the case for either of the first 2 realm events.

Toproller89

I agree with this, I’ll be hitting Uru, doing one match and not thinking about it again until next season, as is the routine for me.

BeastDad

Done and done.

DNA3000

It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.

BringPopcorn

I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.

BlackTuran

I’m sure your model will be more in detail but my eye test has been promising.

Obviously we get more points on odd days versus even days due to the 48 hour objectives, so I’ve been comparing odd to odd and even to even. From what I’ve calculated, other than the very first day, points have been higher as time goes on (day 4 had more points than day 2, day 5 had more points than day 3 for example). If this trend holds, which it should, I have high hopes we hit 1 bil

DNA3000

The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.

BringPopcorn

I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.

DNA3000

That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).

BringPopcorn

I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong

DrZola

Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola

BringPopcorn

Well there is a worse case scenario. Imagine spending all your EMs, not hitting a milestone that is useful to you in the Realm event, score more than 5k and start the next season with 0 marks in an Alliance that has a minimum expected.

DrZola

Just tell your ally it’s the Realm’s fault?

Dr. Zola

BigBlueOx

Worth it. Nova is OP… he’s my most wanted pull in that crystal.