Predict final Realm points for Battleground Blitz

Just a friendly wager—curious to see where everyone thinks we hit. Winner to receive a fabulous no-prize.

DZ

Comments

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Well there is a worse case scenario. Imagine spending all your EMs, not hitting a milestone that is useful to you in the Realm event, score more than 5k and start the next season with 0 marks in an Alliance that has a minimum expected.

Yeah… 100% agree. The Alliance Event without the Marks wasn’t enough. Marks being in the Realm event is a clear flaw here, along with killing the solo event. That shouldn’t have been touched. The realm milestones should have had the extras only. By robbing from Peter (solo and alliance) to pay Paul (realm) to make that appear more exciting ends up leaving us all less rewarded and motivated. It’s too bad

Asim38

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Well there is a worse case scenario. Imagine spending all your EMs, not hitting a milestone that is useful to you in the Realm event, score more than 5k and start the next season with 0 marks in an Alliance that has a minimum expected.
Yeah… 100% agree. The Alliance Event without the Marks wasn’t enough. Marks being in the Realm event is a clear flaw here, along with killing the solo event. That shouldn’t have been touched. The realm milestones should have had the extras only. By robbing from Peter (solo and alliance) to pay Paul (realm) to make that appear more exciting ends up leaving us all less rewarded and motivated. It’s too bad

Absolutely. We won't reach the 1B milestone and miss out on not only the Titan crystal but also the 2500 Titan shards from the last solo milestone.

I would also like to add another factor that gets missed. Maybe I missed it mentioned in previous comments in the thread as it is a busy thread. TIME! Time is finite. If I only have time to play 3, 4, 5, 7 BG matches in a day, I am not going to play 20 matches even if Kabam throws in infinite amounts of Elder Marks. Each match takes about 10 mins to play. 6 is an hour. This added to other things in game and, more importantly, other things that need attention in LIFE, is big.

Not only does this Realm event demand more people to play BGs, it also demands more time invested by those that are already playing BGs. The final tally will give an idea of how much because the ones who aren't regulars either don't have enough EMs to contribute if any so the big chunk of boost is coming from the regulars.

Also I think we should be mindful of expecting "whales" to give a boost. They also have finite time. Maybe they value their time even more and that's why they spend so much on a mobile game. Will their contribution be any different from any regular season if they are aiming for alliance rank rewards? Probably not. Will their contribution be any different from any regular season if they are aiming for solo rank rewards if they don't belong in a BG focused alliance? Definitely but with a negative impact.

Steam97

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).

The problem with this is that you have to incentivize people to use those marks they saved and once you get to 5k points you don't have many motivations left, if they have reached their alliance minimum they should use marks just for the hope to get a better milestone in the realm event, which is not guaranteed at all. The realm event ranked rewards are buffed, but still it's hard to justify spending extra marks when the there isn't much difference between adiacent brackets and there's no guarantee in which bracket you'll end up.

Graves_3

They will give Brian Grant a special objective and add 500 mil points to the realm event on the last day. Don’t worry guys!! We will be ok.

altavista

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Well there is a worse case scenario. Imagine spending all your EMs, not hitting a milestone that is useful to you in the Realm event, score more than 5k and start the next season with 0 marks in an Alliance that has a minimum expected.

This is partially mitigated by the free 2100 marks one gets for making it into GC. Just play 5 matches with just energy, and you instantly get back up to 2100 marks.

Guest120193746239

It's the first week not a lot of people in glad circuit yet chill

DrZola

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Worth it. Nova is OP… he’s my most wanted pull in that crystal.

You want mine?😉

Dr. Zola

Chuck_Finley

Just as a datapoint

I am just outside of GC - barring some massive losing streak, will probably get there by this weekend. I always have a lot of marks and it has taken me a long time to get below the threshold enough so I can claim the beginning rewards for 5 matches.

Now I have the mutliple community event rewards in my stash while I try to negotiate elder mark thresholds and trophy tokens thresholds (cause outside the class cats, the store doesn’t have much value at those prices. And thanks to the timer, I can’t just buy what i have earned)

And even on a 4 match winning streak - I am just maxxed out mentally. You need uninterrupted time - a lot of it- to grind battlegrounds. Plus the focus to detail with the intensity of a mode with little room for error.

All those factors play into my inability to just burn through excess elder marks. Maybe I am the exception .

BeastDad

Maybe I am the exception .

You aren’t.

BigBlueOx

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Worth it. Nova is OP… he’s my most wanted pull in that crystal.
You want mine?😉

Dr. Zola

Deal! Gladly trade you my unduped Serpent pull.

Karlik

We scored 30 million in a day, if it also goes in 20 days, we will collect 600 million more. As a result, there will be about 850 million

DrZola

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
I get that part; lets round up numbers though.. call it GC 30k players at 15k free EMs... Doesn't seem much of an impact... Eh who knows maybe I am wrong
Marks are a valuable resource. I can’t recall starting a season without (at least) a few thousand.

I imagine burning through most of my marks, hitting 5K as we hit the 1B milestone and spinning that Titan to reveal…Nova.

Dr. Zola
Worth it. Nova is OP… he’s my most wanted pull in that crystal.
You want mine?😉

Dr. Zola
Deal! Gladly trade you my unduped Serpent pull.

If that means my unduped Serpent is now duped, then we have a bargain!

Dr. Zola

DrZola

Pre-objectives renewal anecdotal data point…

I’m Gamma 3. Waiting 30+ seconds to match opponents in Arcane 1/2.

Granted, it is about an hour before the objectives renew, but I was hoping to catch folks trying to complete the old objectives.

What does this mean? Maybe nothing at all. Maybe it means we aren’t quite at the point players are going full tilt in GC. Maybe it’s just bad timing. Maybe folks aren’t fans of the crit me meta.

Dr. Zola

DNA3000

The math ain’t looking good…
It’s not, even with the recent surge. The uptick of smaller account participation seen in lower tiers also dries up at Vibranium, which means most matches are straight up doppelgänger pairings influenced significantly by the draft and AI behavior.

Dr. Zola
It is extremely early in the season, and actually the numbers suggest a significantly higher participation level than normal. Based on what Crashed said, quite a lot of players seem to be in GC already, and those numbers feel substantially higher than typical.

Faster promotion rates are a potentially positive reinforcement process. The more people who get into GC, the lower the match difficulty relative to normal, and the easier it is to win matches.

We've seen in the past that participation has these positive reinforcement feedback loops. When people *think* BG is too hard, fewer players participate and it *becomes* hard. But when Kabam has had boosted reward seasons, such that the rewards are a sufficient enticement to overcome that restraint, participation goes up and that higher participation rate encourages even more participation.

The bottom line is if players think its worth jumping in, they *make* it worth jumping in. A lot of lower players playing means they match against each other more often, which causes them to broadcast to other players that match making is easier than normal, which causes more players to jump in. That's what makes it so difficult to predict points in this event relative to, say, the Crystal Cleanse. We aren't going to "run out" of matches. It won't get harder and harder to squeeze out points. It will get easier, if players simply continue to push as they normally would during a typical boosted season.

Every season I have tracked has had more participation in the back half than the first two weeks, by a significant margin. So our current point earning rate is more likely to be the floor and not the ceiling, unlike with Crystal Cleanse where the reverse was true. So players should not be comparing our points today with a linear projection of the required number of points and thinking the one billion mark is impossible already. There's simply no way to really know what our point potential is before the third week rolls around.
I love the positive view, and as I repeated numerous times you do take your time to analyze data. There is 1 little bit of a problem with the GC players though, scores will go up at a faster rate. EMs will ran out too, once you get to GC you stop earning EMs, yes there are free ones on the Realm event milestones, but even those are spread between high milestones. We are not only at the mercy of GC players, they need to spend too.
The players who push the hardest will of course run out of marks, but those guys tend to run out of marks every season, or at least most of them. The real reservoir of marks that exists are the marks people tend to hold back on most seasons. Even I tend to spend enough marks to drop below the GC starter bucket (2100 marks, so 6900) but not always much more than that. If players tap into those marks they usually don't spend, but can be encouraged to spend on this event, that's a ton of points available to tap into that don't directly cost units or cash.

As this is a deathless piece season and also the realm event, I will likely be spending most or all of those marks, and just build them back up in future seasons. So that's an additional 75 matches with mark scoring from me, assuming a 50% win rate in GC (as I get into GC every season, matches I play over and above normal will be in GC) over 5000 points just from those.
I don't know, with CM and Banquet around the corner people will have a pretty strong grip to the units. Most people will spend whatever they have available for free. One of the reasons why it bothers me they put the EM rewards in the Realm Milestones.
That's why, as I said, the mark reservoir to count on is not marks we hope people will buy, but rather marks most players already have but most don't usually spend (all of).
The problem with this is that you have to incentivize people to use those marks they saved and once you get to 5k points you don't have many motivations left, if they have reached their alliance minimum they should use marks just for the hope to get a better milestone in the realm event, which is not guaranteed at all. The realm event ranked rewards are buffed, but still it's hard to justify spending extra marks when the there isn't much difference between adiacent brackets and there's no guarantee in which bracket you'll end up.

The problem with this sentiment is that there’s a presumption with the realm events in general, and this one in particular, that they need to encourage you to go all out. They don’t. In fact, if all they do is convince the players that can go all out to do so, we probably fail. It just needs to convince the masses to do a little more.

Our current trajectory is heading towards 800 million and there’s every reason to believe that will head upward - because bg participation always does - which means it’s reasonable to assume that with no special effort beyond what the players do every season (at least one with special rewards like deathless pieces) we’re on track for 900 million+. One billion might already be in the crosshairs but if it’s not, we’re talking about small percentages more effort, not asking people to spend out all their resources.

The masses are not all maxed out on time already. The masses are not pushed to the limits on alliance requirements. And for the masses the rewards are fantastic. We need everyone to continue to participate at all levels, but the bulk of the points will come from the hundreds of thousands of players doing moderate effort. Relatively small changes in what they do will have proportionately large impacts on our ability to score points.

Herbal_Taxman

I had a similar question. I’m currently sitting at Gamma II with zero points. What does that say about participation / reaching GC at this point? (Not rhetorical, I really don’t know.)

BringPopcorn

Well something weird just happened...

SummonerNR

Well something weird just happened...

RE: bump of about 100m
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/378537/what-just-happened-in-the-realm-event#latest

Hort4

Y'all should rank up your max rarity venom to maximum possible rank if I'm right.

Already have done.

Stupid91

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?

BringPopcorn

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?

That it was a bad design and we needed charity, same as the other event.

Stupid91

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?
That it was a bad design and we needed charity, same as the other event.

I meant in terms of the milestone we will reach...

BringPopcorn

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?
That it was a bad design and we needed charity, same as the other event.
I meant in terms of the milestone we will reach...

That they will be charitable enough to get us to 1B points; but lower progression players will stop grinding after the Titan crystal, and it will be at higher progression players will to keep on getting Titan Shards.

DrZola

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?
That it was a bad design and we needed charity, same as the other event.
I meant in terms of the milestone we will reach...
That they will be charitable enough to get us to 1B points; but lower progression players will stop grinding after the Titan crystal, and it will be at higher progression players will to keep on getting Titan Shards.

Still have to hit 5K. I’m waiting for the Stark Foundation to offer me the 3K solo point internship.

Dr. Zola

BigBlueOx

Now what does everyone think after the latest news?
That it was a bad design and we needed charity, same as the other event.
I meant in terms of the milestone we will reach...
That they will be charitable enough to get us to 1B points; but lower progression players will stop grinding after the Titan crystal, and it will be at higher progression players will to keep on getting Titan Shards.

Agreed, we might even be carried to the 1.5 billion now. Not ideal for budgeted rewards to be granted to us via handouts, so hopefully they do some tuning before the next iteration

DrZola

Revisiting everyone’s prognostications at the mid-point…

…still feeling good about hitting 1B points? Expecting another large infusion from the Stark Foundation?

Deducting any exogenous contributions (which are appreciated), I continue to think my original guess is a reasonable one. How about yours?

Revisions and new predictions welcome…

Dr. Zola

BringPopcorn

Revisiting everyone’s prognostications at the mid-point…

…still feeling good about hitting 1B points? Expecting another large infusion from the Stark Foundation?

Deducting any exogenous contributions (which are appreciated), I continue to think my original guess is a reasonable one. How about yours?

Revisions and new predictions welcome…

Dr. Zola

You know how a few days ago someone said "Hey once people get to GC we will see more points"...
Well they kinda forgot that there isn't much incentive to actually play hard in GC...

BlackTuran

Revisiting everyone’s prognostications at the mid-point…

…still feeling good about hitting 1B points? Expecting another large infusion from the Stark Foundation?

Deducting any exogenous contributions (which are appreciated), I continue to think my original guess is a reasonable one. How about yours?

Revisions and new predictions welcome…

Dr. Zola

We’re not gonna hit the halfway point until 3 pm EST tomorrow. By then we should be at like 560/570 mil. That means we will have gathered about 460/470 mil naturally without counting the stark infusion. If we simply repeat our points production in the second half (which I expect will be higher than the first half) we should definitely hit the billion mark

DrZola

@BringPopcorn and @BlackTuran you both make good points, and I’m genuinely curious to see how it shakes out.

I’ve pulled back the last couple of days to see whether we start gaining momentum. I’d rather save my Marks if we aren’t going to hit 1B (which, again, I think we will with Stark’s help). But I’m burning milestone Marks instead of my own the rest of the way. It would be nice to see things pick up a little right now though—feels like we’ve been moving slowly since end of last week.

Dr. Zola

DNA3000

Revisiting everyone’s prognostications at the mid-point…

…still feeling good about hitting 1B points? Expecting another large infusion from the Stark Foundation?

Deducting any exogenous contributions (which are appreciated), I continue to think my original guess is a reasonable one. How about yours?

Revisions and new predictions welcome…

Dr. Zola

I could make a guess now, but as someone carefully tracking the numbers that would be a bit cheating.

However, if you want a spoiler for my week two post tomorrow: 1.4 billion. One billion from the players, 400 million from Foundation donations assuming one donation a week.

Asim38

Revisiting everyone’s prognostications at the mid-point…

…still feeling good about hitting 1B points? Expecting another large infusion from the Stark Foundation?

Deducting any exogenous contributions (which are appreciated), I continue to think my original guess is a reasonable one. How about yours?

Revisions and new predictions welcome…

Dr. Zola

Depends on how many have already hit 5k contribution, how many marks before ~6500 left going into next season with the remaining EM milestones, and if already in GC. I personally have 3200 points contribution, 8900 marks remaining and just entered GC. Once I hit the criteria above, I will stop and only do objectives.

Two things to add:
1. I entered in URU3 last night. If this was any other season, URU1 wouldn't have been filled yet. This means there is a huge push this season across the board.
2. The AI is a menace right now. Even worse interaction with the GC nodes. A significant chunk of players might halt their grind out of frustration once they have fulfilled their contribution.

I'm going to say 1.3B with the Stark donations assuming 100M per week.

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