**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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It's also possible that the opposite of your statement is true, but whatever, you can say I'm wrong. I don't care anymore. There's no convincing anyone who believes something like this that it isn't true. If your mind even came up with this in the first place, there's no way that I can get it out. Thanks for the infinite amount of "LOL"s that you just gave to me and others involved in this conversation.
Btw, I did provide evidence. Let's take a look:
"Randomness is possible. It's called percentages. List a bunch of ****, then have the computer scroll around until you say stop, then it picks whatever is there. There's an equal chance for everything in most crystals. Some have a bias, which is why certain characters recur more than others."
There you go.
I think it has to do with certain times within the server, & of course, luck. When Civil Warrior was first introduced, I opened up 30k worth of units for his featured crystals, & didn't get a singe 4*. Seriously! Then, 1 hour 15 mins later, I opened up 2 Odin Vault's worth, & got him 3 times. So, it's not about how much or little you spend, or about atmospheric pressure (LOL). If that was the case, I would be able to use my Sith mind tricks, & get every champ. But... I do feel as if it has to do partially with different server times, if that makes any kind of sense? They're constantly resetting themselves. Just have to open at the right time, which no one actually knows what the right time is. Some swear it to be this time, others that time. It's all luck, really.
Exactly. Even if it's not intended, things come off as rude. What GroundedWisdom/Websnatcher/maybe the same person have in common is that they say (maybe) unintentionally insulting things, then demonize those who say unintentionally insult them. There's a certain hypocrisy and irony to this whole concept. I really hope that you can step back and realize this, GroundedWisdom.
I don't debate experience or anything personal. Sorry if it came off as abrasive. I debate ideas. I do tend to sound passionate. It's not directed at the person. Just the idea.
It's possible that the system has a statistical bias toward newer champions... But if so, you'd think someone else would've noticed by now...
People have noticed this. It's that people just don't come onto the forums to say "Hey guys, look! Kabam isn't lying to us!" for no reason unless they're trying to be sarcastic and funny.
Well, people like Websnatcher (god rest his soul) and DNA at least seem to try to clear up confusion and be unbiased.
It's possible that the system has a statistical bias toward newer champions... But if so, you'd think someone else would've noticed by now...[/quote]
well the same thing happened to me when captain America civil war event was going on I got 2 4* captain americas
You're right, but in the absence of absolute truth it is human inclination to propose theories to account for what we see. That's why science exists.
Kabam has said that the drops are random. By your standards, this discussion should be over.
There are two kinds of random number generators. One kind are physical entropy measurement generators. They try to find a source of randomness and sample it to generate random numbers. Atmospheric pressure is one kind of measurement that works, but there are others (random radio static, cosmic rays, radioactive decay are others). The important thing to note is that these sampling systems specifically sample the high entropy areas of the measurement. I'm not sure I can explain that briefly. But consider this: suppose I decide to generate random numbers by measuring the height of people. That sounds horrible: heights aren't random: a lot of people have similar heights. But what if I measured everyone's height accurate to a thousandth of a millimeter, and threw away all the digits except the last one? So this guy's height might be 1.758446 meters, and I throw away everything but the last "6." That's bound to be highly random: even two guys with basically the same height are likely to have a random difference in the last digit of their height measured that precisely. That's how these measuring systems work: they take measurements, but they sample them in such a way that even two seemingly identical measurements won't be identical in the way they look at them. The temperature and atmospheric pressure in your room is likely to be almost identical one minute apart, but not when measured that precisely.
Even better: most measuring devices have only limited accuracy: they literally cannot measure with that many digits of precision accurately. Because of that, squeezing them for measurements like that is even more random: even when measuring *literally* two identical things, the measurements won't be the same because the device will randomly report slightly different results.
All of this is by way of saying that in general, none of this matters to games. Video games use something called a pseudo-random number generator, or PRNG. These are mathematical functions that don't generate literally random numbers, but they generate something that is close enough. Games don't need literal randomness, they just need a generator that obeys certain principles. For example, they want the sequence generated to be unpredictable for short runs of numbers. Seeing five, fifty, or five thousand numbers in a row generated gives you no clue as to what the next number will likely be. You want the generator, on long enough average scales, to generate every possible sequence of numbers equally often. So the number 5 shouldn't come up ten times more often as the number 3. PRNGs exist that obey these tests. I've personally tested PRNGs in video games in the past: I've usually used some subset of the Diehard tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diehard_tests.
Now, do the PRNGs that Kabam uses pass these tests? I don't know. It is too difficult to test MCOC given normal gameplay. All I know is, if the crystal PRNG doesn't pass, its basically a bug. Any reasonable implementation is capable of passing most or all of those kinds of tests.
What's the most common way to mess up a PRNG in a video game? In my experience, two different errors account for 99% of all the PRNG bugs out there. One: trying to write your own. Game programmers love to do this. Inevitably, they screw it up. Two: improper seeding. This one connects the two kinds of random generators above.
If there's a function that generates a pseudo-random string of numbers, one problem with that is that because it is just a mathematical function, and the math function generates the same results when run twice (because math is predictable) then you could theoretically know what the PRNG will generate starting from scratch if you've seen it once. To avoid this repeatability problem, PRNGs are initialized with what is called a "seed." Think of a seed as a starting point for the function that can be made different every time it is run. So the numbers generated are different every time it is run. But how do you pick a seed such that the seed will be randomly different every time the function is run? You use an entropy generator to generate the seed, then pump the seed into the PRNG. Periodically, you generate a new seed and reinitialize the PRNG, so its behavior changes unpredictably.
Why not just use the entropy generator all the time? Comes down to efficiency and limits. Entropy generators are way slower than PRNGs, and they rely on extracting entropy from a measured environment. It is actually possible to "run out" of entropy if you need too much random numbers too quickly, because the system can only measure so fast.
So: most computer software that needs random numbers, from games to crypto security software to astronomy simulations, use an entropy generator to generate a small amount of environmentally random numbers. They use those to seed PRNGs which generate huge amounts of pseudo-random unpredictable sequences of numbers that can be used as if they are random, because no one can tell they aren't random by testing them. And that's how that works.
PS: what's the most common basis for the seed for PRNGs for games? In my experience, the time. The moment you open your crystal is somewhat random, if we ignore everything about the time except for the exact millisecond you attempted to open it. Its the "last digit" idea I mentioned above, but measuring the current time instead of the heights of people. We can also hash the time (take the time and push it through another function that scrambles the value), and that's effectively a random enough seed as well.
Completely true! There is no way that external factors can completely determine the odds of a crystal, or all multiple crystal openings would be the same. I hadn't though of that, and applaud you for realizing this. I find it unlikely that it affects probability at all, but it's impossible that it is the sole factor.
The randomness seems to me like a fruit machine type programming. After a while, the jackpot will be touched. I hear of 'expert' fruit machines player who observes each machine and how they 'think' the cashout is coming out. There were quite accurate, surprisingly.
Anyway, there was a youtube video which demonstrated after a certain sequence, getting a 4☆ from PHC. Game developer saw it and quickly fixed the "problem". So much about randomness.
The sentence and construction in one of the forum members in this thread is very alike to another in the closed forum. That other forum member has appeared in this forum yet?
That's exactly why I've mentioned that each individual outcome is randomly generated within the set parameters. We see people open mass amounts of Crystals and come up short. Then we see another person who opens one or two and we say it's biased. It's subjective. The system doesn't create a bias based on the person's Account. Each is a random generation based on the system's limits. (Drop Rates). If the Drop Rate is 1/100 for example, having 100 Crystals does not guarantee a drop. It means you have 100 chances at 1/100.
Welp learn something new every day. I definitely do not have your understanding of this. Thanks for the insight.
b7c05f3d6b6f218b53522699b72b2d9ea2094c99d283d0ab6dbd40d4ad8a5c7f
And if I hash the time one second later represented as "2017-05-18 15:05:01" what does that one tiny difference do to the hash?
1ced023a0c65ebed6e76fcd581edd37012db3ba7a7a16f7d17cc3ece116c04b7
Its completely different, and essentially impossible to predict just by looking at the sequence alone. When someone says computers can't "really" generate true random numbers, that's true, but also irrelevant. They can generate numbers indistinguishable from random numbers by human beings, and that's all that matters.
For those that want to know how PRNGs work, the most common one in use by most operating systems and thus most games implemented on those operatings systems is something called the Mersenne Twister: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister. It is not considered cryptographically secure without modification, but generally good enough for most randomness requirements. It will pass almost any test that human eyeballs are capable of reproducing.
I can tell you that is off topic.
We should respect them, but we shouldn't kiss their butts. I respect the President of the United States, but that doesn't mean I agree with him on everything. I respect Websnatcher as a person, but that doesn't mean I agree with him on everything. There's a fine line between respecting a company and agreeing with nearly everything that the company says, which is what Websnatcher seemed to do quite often. Not a shot at him at all, but many thought that he was a Kabam-loving-hypocrite.