Can someone calculate the probability of this??

πŸ€·πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ

Β«1

Comments

  • X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 67 β˜…
    edited June 24
    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well πŸ€·πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ I am dumb ... I don't know πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ
  • Destroy4589Destroy4589 Posts: 152 β˜…β˜…
    Not really. Each crystal has an equal chance of getting whatever drop. It's not like the chance decreases just because you pulled one
  • GiuliameijGiuliameij Posts: 279 β˜…β˜…
    The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 5,276 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

    The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.

    That would mean the more crystals you open, the higher chance you have to get consecutive four stars. What mathgeek said is correct
  • GiuliameijGiuliameij Posts: 279 β˜…β˜…
    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.
  • DjinDjin Posts: 991 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
    0.000027
  • Kill_GreyKill_Grey Posts: 1,862 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
    Djin said:

    0.000027

    Out of what?
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 5,276 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

    Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 5,276 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
    DarthPhal said:

    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

    Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct
    Incorrect. The OP wasn’t asking the probability of a single opening. He was asking the probability of pulling 3 consecutively, which is not the same.

    This reply answers a question that was not asked.
    I was referring to his last statement
    This is what the op was asking



    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

  • DjinDjin Posts: 991 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

    Djin said:

    0.000027

    Out of what?

    Or 0.0027%
    It's very rare.
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 727 β˜…β˜…β˜…

    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well πŸ€·πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ I am dumb ... I don't know πŸ€¦πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ
    So.. if you know that he's wrong.. you must know how to make the calculation yourself.. so why don't you do that?
  • Agent_X_zzzAgent_X_zzz Posts: 1,648 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…
    If only my Cavs were like this
  • Ebony_NawEbony_Naw Posts: 605 β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…

    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.


    I wish people would stop regurgitating this from whichever Google search or common core math class from which you learned this and thought it was clever. It is not irrelevant because the OP asked the question. He was pleasantly surprised and was just curious what the probability is of pulling 3 consecutive 4* champs. The question is fine and the answers given are correct. Your response doesn't mathematically disprove the calculations used to obtain the probability. It is in fact part of the underlying assumptions of the equation. If outcomes were instead contingent on previous pulls, then the answers given above would be incorrect.


    It's a stupid question because outcomes for specific pulls are independent? Not to the OP.
  • FeuerschwerFeuerschwer Posts: 64 β˜…

    Kyuff said:

    Good thing he didnt ask for the odds of pulling 4 star Venom, Hela and Ginger in that particular order.

    Phew!

    (3/100*1/162)^3=0.0000000006351%?

    I'm not sure though.
    This is accurate (assuming 162 champs in the 4* pool). Same odds for any specific combination of champs.
  • King_Leo321King_Leo321 Posts: 1,209 β˜…β˜…β˜…
    My probability is Luck.
  • EdeuinkEdeuink Posts: 875 β˜…β˜…β˜…
    RNG
  • HolrosHolros Posts: 92 β˜…
    OK now my head is burning from all this maths,I guess probability isn't meant for me
  • TChalllaTChallla Posts: 80 β˜…
    One time they were selling these crystals that would give you a cavalier grandmaster or some other kind. Cavalier was the most rare and i got it and then pulled a six from that one.
  • MenkentMenkent Posts: 585 β˜…β˜…β˜…
    Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.
  • MathgeekMathgeek Posts: 609 β˜…β˜…β˜…
    Menkent said:

    Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.

    Definitely
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 β˜…β˜…β˜…
    3x3x3= 0000000000000.3736255.72626.7666% chance. Am i smart now?
Sign In or Register to comment.