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Can someone calculate the probability of this??

X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 155 ★
in General Discussion
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    X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 155 ★
    edited June 2020
    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️
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    Destroy4589Destroy4589 Posts: 261 ★★★
    Not really. Each crystal has an equal chance of getting whatever drop. It's not like the chance decreases just because you pulled one
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    GiuliameijGiuliameij Posts: 1,849 ★★★★
    The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.
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    Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★
    Giuliameij said:

    The chances of that happening is 3 times 3%. That's it.

    That would mean the more crystals you open, the higher chance you have to get consecutive four stars. What mathgeek said is correct
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    GiuliameijGiuliameij Posts: 1,849 ★★★★
    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.
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    DjinDjin Posts: 1,962 ★★★★★
    0.000027
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    Kill_GreyKill_Grey Posts: 8,666 ★★★★★
    Djin said:

    0.000027

    Out of what?
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    Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★
    Giuliameij said:

    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

    Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct
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    Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★
    DarthPhal said:

    Thicco_Mode said:

    Giuliameij said:

    @Thicco_Mode every crystal it stays 3%. I might have said it wrong.

    If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%.

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

    Yeah I think you just worded it wrong. This is correct
    Incorrect. The OP wasn’t asking the probability of a single opening. He was asking the probability of pulling 3 consecutively, which is not the same.

    This reply answers a question that was not asked.
    I was referring to his last statement
    This is what the op was asking
    Giuliameij said:



    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

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    DjinDjin Posts: 1,962 ★★★★★
    Kill_Grey4112 said:

    Djin said:

    0.000027

    Out of what?

    Or 0.0027%
    It's very rare.
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    Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    X_E_Cutioner said:

    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️
    So.. if you know that he's wrong.. you must know how to make the calculation yourself.. so why don't you do that?
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    Agent_X_zzzAgent_X_zzz Posts: 4,494 ★★★★★
    If only my Cavs were like this
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    FeuerschwerFeuerschwer Posts: 313 ★★
    Notsavage19 said:

    Kyuff said:

    Good thing he didnt ask for the odds of pulling 4 star Venom, Hela and Ginger in that particular order.

    Phew!

    (3/100*1/162)^3=0.0000000006351%?

    I'm not sure though.
    This is accurate (assuming 162 champs in the 4* pool). Same odds for any specific combination of champs.
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    King_Leo321King_Leo321 Posts: 1,211 ★★★
    My probability is Luck.
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    EdeuinkEdeuink Posts: 1,263 ★★★★
    RNG
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    HolrosHolros Posts: 361 ★★★
    OK now my head is burning from all this maths,I guess probability isn't meant for me
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    TChalllaTChallla Posts: 85 ★
    One time they were selling these crystals that would give you a cavalier grandmaster or some other kind. Cavalier was the most rare and i got it and then pulled a six from that one.
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    MenkentMenkent Posts: 889 ★★★★
    Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.
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    MathgeekMathgeek Posts: 609 ★★★
    Menkent said:

    Marvel Contest of Maths is my favorite part of this community.

    Definitely
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    Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 743 ★★★
    3x3x3= 0000000000000.3736255.72626.7666% chance. Am i smart now?
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