I Know this is “luck” but I’m quitting the game unless someone changes this
EliOrSomething
Member Posts: 115 ★★
JUST PULLED MY 3RD MUTANT 4-5 GEM OUT OF A TOTAL OF 3 4-5 CRYSTALS… THAT IS A HALF OF A PERCENT CHANCE TO HAPPEN. THIS IS BULL, THIS GAME INTENTIONALLY GIVES YOU CLASSES YOU DONT WANT, THE WORST IN THE GAME… I DO NOT CARE IF THIS IS “luck” or not… this is a statistical impossibility, the odds of getting 1/6 THREE CONSECUTIVE TIMES IS ASTRONOMICAL, the only rational explanation is that this game favors classes that your roster has less strength in. At this point NOBODY can convince me other wise, I have basically won the lottery of bad luck UNLESS the game is rigged… therefore it must be rigged
61
Comments
1. Take a break from the game.
2. Get some fresh air and sunlight if you can do so safely
3. Remember this is a comic book video game you play in a phone
4. Have fun with it but don’t let it ruin your day.
5. See you next week when you get another run of bad RNG
Source: math
Nor does it take into account what you pulled before.
You pulled the one in six Class you got two times before. That's about it.
RNG in Marvel Contest of Champions is exactly that: random.
To list drop rates and secretly operate independently of them wouldn't just be unethical, it would be illegal.
Yes, sometimes mistakes happen and we work to quickly resolve them. But no, this isn't one of those times, and no this isn't a predetermined outcome meant to intentionally frustrate Summoners. (I definitely wouldn't allow mechanics to exist to intentionally funnel people into the forums to yell about stuff, that would make my job... yeesh)
I'm sorry for the poor RNG on this one, better luck on the next.
Each roll is a 1-in-6 chance of a specific class and is unaffected by previous or future rolls.
The chance you would roll mutant-mutant-mutant is exactly the same as the chance of any specific combo (mutant-tech-cosmic, for example). If you roll mutant on the first roll, then you have a 1-in-6 chance of rolling any of the classes on roll 2, including mutant. Same for the third roll.
And I get that you don't want to hear about math and are mad about your luck, but that's all it is, buddy -- bad luck.
Still 16,67% for the 2 and 3 crystal.
We buy crystals with 1% chance of a 7*…and I’ve gotten 3 in less than 40 pulls.
#RNG
Moreover, the odds of getting three in a row of the same class are only one in 36. In statistics classes they teach this in two separate ways. First, the first opening could have been any class, so there are no odds for that. But for the next two to be identical requires the second to match one in six, and the third to also match one in six, so the net odds against are one in 36 (1/6 x 1/6). Alternatively, first principles: there are a total of 216 possible ways three openings can go, and in six of them you get three of a kind, so that's 6/216 = 1/36.
The game has no idea which one you want. Some people say it could in theory, because the game knows your roster. But contrary to popular belief, players are not all identical. Given the same roster, two different players will prioritize different champs. What you don't like lots of other players do like. For some players this could be the ideal drop pattern.
But even if it is not, it is inevitable that players will see this, because one out of thirty six will see a three in a row, which is practically one player out of every alliance. And out of all those players, there will be many for whom the class that comes up happens to be at the bottom of their list of desirable classes. Presumably, one in six.
So the odds of someone getting the class they want the least, and getting it three times in a row, is one out of 216.
I believe you when you say that no one can convince you otherwise. I'm afraid this just means you will have to go through life being wrong a lot, and being indignant about it, because the math unequivocally disagrees with you.
Also:
Sometimes, RNG just happens.
By the way, consecutive means one right after the other. You didn't open them consecutively. You opened them over periods of time. It's like saying you flipped a coin 3 times over the course of 6 months and somehow got heads 3 times. Each crystal has it's own drop rates. You have a 1/6 chance every time you open a Class based gem crystal. Not even close to astronomical.
1. One out of 216 is astronomically low.
2. One out of 216 is a statistical impossibility.
3. MCOC, a game that cannot consistently keep the order of crystals in the vault straight was programmed with mind reading abilities or sophisticated predictive AI.
4. MCOC rigs the odds of rank up crystals in a way so obvious everyone who saw it would complain if it happened to everyone.
Which one of these things did you expect anyone else to agree with? The first one is silly. The second one is objectively false. The third one is ludicrously beyond the capabilities of the developers. And the fourth one is inexplicable and nonsensical.
The easiest thing to do in this game is complain about the game and get people to agree with you. At this point, this is much easier than doing RoL with six star champs. All you have to do is a) not cheat, b) not complain about spending, c) not complain about BG match making, d) not say nonsensical stuff, and e) not cry foul and claim you're going to quit.
Almost anything else is farming for agrees.
However, the farther apart they are, the more likely memory may be faulty, and the more likely for "opportunity errors" to occur. Which would take some time to explain, but it is a form of selection bias. If you open three crystals over a long period of time with lots of stuff happening in the middle, there's a chance your brain will spot a pattern in the noise between those crystal openings that can create significance issues.
For example, if I open three 7* crystals over a period of three months and I say that they were all Void, the fact that they were opened over a period of three months isn't really relevant. But if I were to say that I opened three 7* crystals and every time I did the champion matched my last 6* opening prior, now you have to get suspicious. Did I just notice a weird pattern. What if my 7* champ happened to match my last 5* opening instead, or my last 4* opening, or my last Cav opening, or or or - that's the problem with giving humans too many opportunities to create what are called significance problems. Is pulling three Voids in a row significant? Probably. Is pulling 7* Void after pulling 6* Void significant? Maybe, maybe not, if I was looking at enough data to find something, anything that looked like a correlation.
The problem all statistical analysts have to deal with is this question: am I calculating the odds of a rare event occurring, or am I calculating the odds of someone noticing an event that looks anything like this and reporting it. Those two odds can be wildly different. The odds of me seeing three Hoods in a row in the video I posted? About 700k to one. The odds of me seeing three identical champs in a row and posting a video about it? More like ten thousand to one. The odds of a player seeing this eventually and posting about it among all the players in the game? Almost 100%.
Dr. Zola