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AG RNG and the math isn't adding up.

124

Comments

  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    That's ridiculous. 5*AGs aren't even that common to justify such an algorithm. I think people are getting carried away with not getting what they're pulling for.

    Actually they are common enough. I know lots of people who have plenty of the type they dont want.
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    That's ridiculous. 5*AGs aren't even that common to justify such an algorithm. I think people are getting carried away with not getting what they're pulling for.

    Once you actually play the game and accomplish some of the more advanced material you'll start to see. That is if your not to busy spending all your time searching every thread looking to post comments in favor of kabaam.
  • Dmonster69Dmonster69 Posts: 15 ★
    Not sure if anyone has read the reddit post of the ex kabam employee and how he talks about kabam algorithms for players that spend a lot on the game, and how they increase the odds of pulling god tier champs for “spenders”. I found it interesting to say the least
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    Dmonster69 said:

    Not sure if anyone has read the reddit post of the ex kabam employee and how he talks about kabam algorithms for players that spend a lot on the game, and how they increase the odds of pulling god tier champs for “spenders”. I found it interesting to say the least

    If that is true it wouldn't suprise me in the least
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    edited April 2019
    Dtl7714 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    That's ridiculous. 5*AGs aren't even that common to justify such an algorithm. I think people are getting carried away with not getting what they're pulling for.

    Once you actually play the game and accomplish some of the more advanced material you'll start to see. That is if your not to busy spending all your time searching every thread looking to post comments in favor of kabaam.
    I see. So you think because I'm on the Forum a great deal, I don't understand the game because I don't actually play. Perhaps you haven't heard of the concept of having a Laptop AND a Cell.
    There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that they've altered the drops to make money on AGs. There is a finite amount within the game, aside from the occasional Event and Offer. It's just not true. The pools are on the server, and there is only one. You have a separate occurrence of 1/6th chance at any Gem each time. It isn't an algorithm that entails "If x=y....". It's a one in six chance at any Class. It doesn't stop to analzye what is in your Inventory. It's the same chance no matter what you have or when you open it. If I had a dollar for every Post that claimed the RNG was rigged, I would own the company.
    Each pull is an isolated occurrence. Technically, you could pull the same Gem 100 times because it's not altered by the previous pull. Each roll is a 17% chance at any Class, each time. That's just the facts, and it has nothing to do with people spending more, and everything to do with how the RNG operates.
    People take these pulls way too seriously. There's no major conspiracy. They just didn't get what they wanted. Some cases, they didn't get it over and over. Such is RNG. It's not some ploy to get money out of people. It's called RNG, and it doesn't change just because you pulled the same thing last time, or didn't need that Class. That's the chance we all take. That's exactly why I chose to spend my Intel on something else. I wasn't willing to take the chance. Not because I thought someone was out to sabotage me.
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    edited April 2019
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Dtl7714 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    That's ridiculous. 5*AGs aren't even that common to justify such an algorithm. I think people are getting carried away with not getting what they're pulling for.

    Once you actually play the game and accomplish some of the more advanced material you'll start to see. That is if your not to busy spending all your time searching every thread looking to post comments in favor of kabaam.
    I see. So you think because I'm on the Forum a great deal, I don't understand the game because I don't actually play. Perhaps you haven't heard of the concept of having a Laptop AND a Cell.
    There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that they've altered the drops to make money on AGs. There is a finite amount within the game, aside from the occasional Event and Offer. It's just not true. The pools are on the server, and there is only one. You have a separate occurrence of 1/6th chance at any Gem each time. It isn't an algorithm that entails "If x=y....". It's a one in six chance at any Class. It doesn't stop to analzye what is in your Inventory. It's the same chance no matter what you have or when you open it. If I had a dollar for every Post that claimed the RNG was rigged, I would own the company.
    Each pull is an isolated occurrence. Technically, you could pull the same Gem 100 times because it's not altered by the previous pull. Each roll is a 17% chance at any Class, each time. That's just the facts, and it has nothing to do with people spending more, and everything to do with how the RNG operates.
    People take these pulls way too seriously. There's no major conspiracy. They just didn't get what they wanted. Some cases, they didn't get it over and over. Such is RNG. It's not some ploy to get money out of people. It's called RNG, and it doesn't change just because you pulled the same thing last time, or didn't need that Class. That's the chance we all take. That's exactly why I chose to spend my Intel on something else. I wasn't willing to take the chance. Not because I thought someone was out to sabotage me.
    Opinion isnt just about your amount of activity on the forum but your comments in recent posts about where you are in the game content. You just havent done as much in game as alot of people. But keep at it and you'll get there. I can give you some pointers on RTTL if you still need help. And it's funny hearing you talk about taking stuff too seriously after a post like that.
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Dtl7714 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Dtl7714 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    That's ridiculous. 5*AGs aren't even that common to justify such an algorithm. I think people are getting carried away with not getting what they're pulling for.

    Once you actually play the game and accomplish some of the more advanced material you'll start to see. That is if your not to busy spending all your time searching every thread looking to post comments in favor of kabaam.
    I see. So you think because I'm on the Forum a great deal, I don't understand the game because I don't actually play. Perhaps you haven't heard of the concept of having a Laptop AND a Cell.
    There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that they've altered the drops to make money on AGs. There is a finite amount within the game, aside from the occasional Event and Offer. It's just not true. The pools are on the server, and there is only one. You have a separate occurrence of 1/6th chance at any Gem each time. It isn't an algorithm that entails "If x=y....". It's a one in six chance at any Class. It doesn't stop to analzye what is in your Inventory. It's the same chance no matter what you have or when you open it. If I had a dollar for every Post that claimed the RNG was rigged, I would own the company.
    Each pull is an isolated occurrence. Technically, you could pull the same Gem 100 times because it's not altered by the previous pull. Each roll is a 17% chance at any Class, each time. That's just the facts, and it has nothing to do with people spending more, and everything to do with how the RNG operates.
    People take these pulls way too seriously. There's no major conspiracy. They just didn't get what they wanted. Some cases, they didn't get it over and over. Such is RNG. It's not some ploy to get money out of people. It's called RNG, and it doesn't change just because you pulled the same thing last time, or didn't need that Class. That's the chance we all take. That's exactly why I chose to spend my Intel on something else. I wasn't willing to take the chance. Not because I thought someone was out to sabotage me.
    Opinion isnt just about your amount of activity on the forum but your comments in recent posts about where you are in the game content. You just havent done as much in game as alot of people. But keep at it and you'll get there. And it's funny hearing you talk about taking stuff too seriously after a post like that.
    Belittling someone's progress in a conversation is a sign of insecurity, and a last-ditch effort when losing the debate.
    Belittling is a bit of a stretch. But exaggerate my comments all you like to try and get the moderators to give me a warning. I was just pointing out that for those of us farther in the game content Awakening gems of unwanted class are common
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    I am capable of understanding more common without picking up the game. I can't personally relate to having pulled many of the same Class. That doesn't mean I'm incapable of understanding the system.
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    I am capable of understanding more common without picking up the game. I can't personally relate to having pulled many of the same Class. That doesn't mean I'm incapable of understanding the system.

    But you are putting your guesses about the way the game works above the opinions of people who have personal experience. I would say experience over theory should count for something
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    Why are people still posting in this thread?

    Y'all are killing me with the notifications.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    No, you're trying to apply game progress to a conversation about how the RNG works in the game. Those two don't even connect to each other. It's not the first time I've been confronted with that argument. Thanks, though.
  • Dtl7714Dtl7714 Posts: 467 ★★★
    edited April 2019
    Hamin said:

    Why are people still posting in this thread?

    Y'all are killing me with the notifications.

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you're trying to apply game progress to a conversation about how the RNG works in the game. Those two don't even connect to each other. It's not the first time I've been confronted with that

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you're trying to apply game progress to a conversation about how the RNG works in the game. Those two don't even connect to each other. It's not the first time I've been confronted with that argument. Thanks, though.

    Cause what people experience in game is a figment of their imagination and cant be true cause it goes against RNG. Well thanks for clearing it up. You'll see eventually, maybe.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    Nowhere did I say it was their imagination. I explained in detail how the RNG system operates. No amount of trying to look down at me for what I have and have not done in the game is going to make the conspiracy theory any more valid. I think that about ends this portion of the discussion. Best of luck with your pulls.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,650 Guardian
    Dmonster69 said:

    Not sure if anyone has read the reddit post of the ex kabam employee and how he talks about kabam algorithms for players that spend a lot on the game, and how they increase the odds of pulling god tier champs for “spenders”. I found it interesting to say the least

    If you're referring to what I think you're referring to, that was pretty obviously fake. It was written by someone pretending to be a game developer, but not very good at it.
  • StarhawkStarhawk Posts: 614 ★★★
    each roll is independent of each other so you had as good a chance at pulling a 5* cosmic the 2nd time around as the 3rd and 4th times.....which is the same as any of the other classes. It sucks but happens.
  • StarhawkStarhawk Posts: 614 ★★★
    Dmonster69 said:

    Not sure if anyone has read the reddit post of the ex kabam employee and how he talks about kabam algorithms for players that spend a lot on the game, and how they increase the odds of pulling god tier champs for “spenders”. I found it interesting to say the least

    its possible something is going on however i can tell you i pulled more god tier characters early on from my f2p account then i did with the account i pay with. If anything they might be lowering a spender's odds if they notice they then proceed to spend more....which should be illegal.
  • WOKWOK Posts: 468 ★★
    DNA3000 said:

    WOK said:

    I've spoken to people from several alliances over the years and they have spoken with others and we've all come to notice and agree that the improbable "anectodal evidence" seems to definitely be real

    The question is: do you believe these studies prove all of your anecdotes to be suspect? In other words, do you believe all the players you talk to because they all say the same thing, or do you believe all the cognitive scientists in the world, because they all say the same thing?
    Good question, and TBQH I dont believe or give much weight to either. When it had come up I would have a laugh and chalk it up to coincidence and bax luck, nothing more. Just to clarify, my stating that the anecdote is real doesn't actually mean that I consider it as fact. They are real because I've had chats with others with similar experiences just as the people in this forum have described, but I dont confuse that with being factual because I haven't the slightest knowledge of Kabams RNG algorithm and its values.

    With online gambling sites, I do know that their process must be completely transparent, tested, and approved by a governing commission(at the state level as far as Im aware) and documentation of the results available to the public. Does MMOs such as MCoC adhere to something similar or regulated by a commission of some sort? I ask because I have no clue

  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    Starhawk said:

    each roll is independent of each other so you had as good a chance at pulling a 5* cosmic the 2nd time around as the 3rd and 4th times.....which is the same as any of the other classes. It sucks but happens.

    No.

    1 in 6 chance per roll is true, but the probability of rolling the same thing multiple times in a row goes down astronomically with each roll.

    Again... drop percentages =/= probability

    They are two separate entities.
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    Math:


  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    Hamin said:

    Starhawk said:

    each roll is independent of each other so you had as good a chance at pulling a 5* cosmic the 2nd time around as the 3rd and 4th times.....which is the same as any of the other classes. It sucks but happens.

    No.

    1 in 6 chance per roll is true, but the probability of rolling the same thing multiple times in a row goes down astronomically with each roll.

    Again... drop percentages =/= probability

    They are two separate entities.
    Yes, but there's grey area, since each roll is independent. The thing about probability is it averages what is most probable. The thing about independent occurrences is, anything can happen. Each roll doesn't factor in that you just pulled the same. It rolls and lands wherever it rolls. That's why I stay away from calculating probability with RNG. It really is just the same Drop Rate executed over and over. Probability is, you can roll straight Cosmic because you have a 1 in 6 chance everytime.
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Hamin said:

    Starhawk said:

    each roll is independent of each other so you had as good a chance at pulling a 5* cosmic the 2nd time around as the 3rd and 4th times.....which is the same as any of the other classes. It sucks but happens.

    No.

    1 in 6 chance per roll is true, but the probability of rolling the same thing multiple times in a row goes down astronomically with each roll.

    Again... drop percentages =/= probability

    They are two separate entities.
    Yes, but there's grey area, since each roll is independent. The thing about probability is it averages what is most probable. The thing about independent occurrences is, anything can happen. Each roll doesn't factor in that you just pulled the same. It rolls and lands wherever it rolls. That's why I stay away from calculating probability with RNG. It really is just the same Drop Rate executed over and over. Probability is, you can roll straight Cosmic because you have a 1 in 6 chance everytime.
    Yes, but that doesn't change the probability of it. Math is math. There is no "gray area".

    The probability of rolling the same number 4 times in a row is independent of individual drop percentages.

    There is a chance to do it, but it's ridiculously low.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    Should I say, the possibility is, not the probability. Lol. I can't words.
  • xNigxNig Posts: 7,242 ★★★★★
    Hamin said:

    Math:


    That calculation is correct IF you have not rolled the AGs at all and plan to open them all at once.

    If you’re rolling dice by dice, the moment you roll your first dice and it rolls a 6, the probability of the next 3 rolls being 3 6s collectively drops to 1/6^3, while the probability of a 6 of the next independent roll remains at 1/6.
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Should I say, the possibility is, not the probability. Lol. I can't words.

    I can agree with that.

    And it's ok... I can't words most of the time either.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    edited April 2019
    xNig said:

    Hamin said:

    Math:


    That calculation is correct IF you have not rolled the AGs at all and plan to open them all at once.

    If you’re rolling dice by dice, the moment you roll your first dice and it rolls a 6, the probability of the next 3 rolls being 3 6s collectively drops to 1/6^3, while the probability of a 6 of the next independent roll remains at 1/6.
    Correct, and since each Crystal is a separate generation of 1/6, that's it. Each time.
    The problem with probability in terms of RNG is it doesn't account for things like coincidences, chance, luck, randomness, or any other "Act of God". Not sure if that's the best term, but I'll go with it. It's a Mathematical Equation to predict the probability of something occurring, but it doesn't account for spontaneity.
  • DarthHaasDarthHaas Posts: 385 ★★
    I did not get an AG with the intel. And I had a 100% chance of not getting one. Looking back I thought it would be a waste since I only had two classes that I would be able to use one on. I didn’t want to get the wrong one. But after watching everyone in my ally get the one they wanted the most I am rethinking my cool proof strategy
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    xNig said:

    Hamin said:

    Math:


    That calculation is correct IF you have not rolled the AGs at all and plan to open them all at once.

    If you’re rolling dice by dice, the moment you roll your first dice and it rolls a 6, the probability of the next 3 rolls being 3 6s collectively drops to 1/6^3, while the probability of a 6 of the next independent roll remains at 1/6.
    What? No... time has no bearing on probability.

    If you roll a 6... wait a month... roll another 6... wait a year... roll another 6... wait ten years and roll another 6... it all still has the same probability.

    For AGs, it's the same thing. It doesn't matter if you opened four at the same time or four over the course of a year. They are all still the same crystal with the same drop rates.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,234 ★★★★★
    On paper, it seems highly improbable. Within RNG that generates each occurrence, it's a 1 in 6 proability, each time. The pulls aren't grouped together in any way, save for your calculations.
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    On paper, it seems highly improbable. Within RNG that generates each occurrence, it's a 1 in 6 proability, each time. The pulls aren't grouped together in any way, save for your calculations.

    Grouping is irrelevant.

    Opening an AG is the same as rolling a 6 sided die. 1/6 chance for any class.

    Now... No matter how you word it or think about it, if you open an AG, yes you still have a 1/6 chance; however, the probability of pulling the same thing goes down with each AG you open.

    Just like the probability of rolling a 6 multiple times in a row goes down if you roll a die.
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