**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
If so, then it matches up with my logic that if the odds are 1 out of 5 (which are the stated odds), that it is basically twice as beneficial statistically to do the Legendary ones.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
https://study.com/academy/lesson/gamblers-fallacy-example-definition-quiz.html
The odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
No, Casino Odds DO NOT promise that over a long enough time that the odds will tend towards you ever making money, instead it is just the opposite. Ie, Roulette is actually 38 spots (black/red 1-36, but then 2 extra green 0 and 00). So even if the odds of landing on a certain number are 1 to 36 (not sure, maybe it is even 1 to 35 ?) even though there are 38 possibilities, that means statistically the sum total to infinite plays is always a LOSS.
The sum total to infinite pulls of Legendary Crystals is actually better than sticking with 4* crystals, at least as far as 5* Heroes and/or Shards are concerned (unless you always save up 5* Shards to use towards buying 15000 Feature 5* versions instead). And it could even be that statistically the ISO and Gold is probably close as well (or nonetheless, it is not such of a disadvantage with Legendary as to be the reason you would stick with doing 4* crystals).
Nowhere do I say that people are guaranteed to pull a 5* in every five pulls. That is the exact opposite of what I said. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend to understand a subject but is just Googling their way through a conversation.
Well, something between 126 out of 127 people and 3448 out of 3449 people will get farther ahead. I'll take those odds any day.
It's stupid at max level for both the deal offering company and purchasers.
Each pull still has a 80% chance of pulling a 4*... there is no guarantee in 12 independent pulls (like your break even point) that you WILL get a 5*. While the odds will be statistically in your favor at first over time, the truth is that every independent pull is 80% not in your favor.
So, if 1-4 was all 4* pulls... do your odds increase on the 5th? Do your odds increase on the 8th from the fourth? Statistically they drop with each 4* pulled and the odds of pulling all 4* increases. However, the bitter truth of the Gambler’s Fallacy is that the odds are always 20-80 regardless of any previously opened crystal.
It is how you (not you literally) end up dumping money on featured cavalier crystal... you have a 1.2% chance at the 5*... so surely you should get it in 100 crystals? That is not always the case. While statistically you should, you can never escape the fact that each pull is 1.2% and you will most likely not get the champ. It might take 200, 500, 1000... it may take just 1. However, each pull is always 1.2%. If you went 12 legendaries and did not pull a 5*, what then?
Too keep pulling, as eventually you will hit in the comment you made... is the Gambler’s Fallacy. You can come up with break evens and statistical probabilities, but what matters is each Individual pull.
Didn’t know it resets weekly...then who cares, all they did was add a crystal.
I hope it's okay to tag you guys and you don't mind it.
I'm one of the sigil holder with expiry in next 3 days. I wanted to use this last week resources, but now i could only buy 2k red shards instead of the normal 3k red shards from 4 star shards earlier. So basically i lost 1k red shards. This change should have affected my account once i renewed the sigil and not to already active sigil. And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
In that specific situation, which probably represents a huge chunk of people considering (and able to) buy the Legendary crystal, the value of a 4* is between 275 and 550 5* shards. So we have 2.5 * 275 = 0.8 * 275 + n * 10000 where n is the chance to pull a 5* champ, valued here at 10k shards. n=24.24 here, and for the upper case of 2.5 * 550 = 0.8 * 550 + n * 10000 for basically all dups converting to max sig crystals themselves converting to 5* shards, n = 12.12.
If we're talking about what one person should do, we can simply ask whether they should buy something with a one in five chance to generate a 5* champ, when the break even point is one out of between 12 and 24. We can also ask the inverse question: if a large number of people buy the Legendary crystal many times over a period of time, what percentage of them are likely to be lucky enough to get more than necessary to break even, verses how many are likely to be unlucky enough to pull fewer than the break even. Out of 48 pulls (for nice round numbers) the break even points is between two and four 5* champs, depending on the frequency of max sig 4* crystals. We can then calculate the odds of pulling zero or one champ at the lower end (since two is break even, only pulling one or zero would be worse) and pulling zero, one, two, or three 5* champs at the higher end (since four is break even at the top). That generates the upper and lower bounds for how likely it is someone will do worse than break even for them: something between 0.02899% and 0.7889%, corresponding to one in 3449.35 and one in 126.7606 respectively.
If 100,000 players buy Legendary crystals for the next year, then some number of them, probably a couple hundred, will end up doing worse than if they just opened 4* crystals. Whether that number is reasonably low or not I guess depends on whether you're one of those couple in a thousand players. But I wouldn't make gameplay decisions based on potentially being one of those rare players.
the thing about the black market, is its a paid service. meaning i paid money for it. up until now, everything in there was straight forward. you got what you paid for pretty straight up without much guesswork. dont even try to bring up phcs because everyone knows they are like a tree full of bids. only one thing dropping out of it. literally no one opens phcs thinking "this is gonna be my lucky day". its an iso/shard resource and nothing more.
its hard to fathom, that you could include the featured for a mere 1000 shards more than a regular 5 star, which is fantastic, then have the gall to ask 5k shards for a legendary crystal with an 80% 4 star drop. there is again, no real risk with the featured. you pay your pittance, and you still get a 5 star.
i did not pay for your subscription for more gambling. make things straight forward again. it is no bargain. or maybe im the one not getting the joke, like its a real black market and youre selling fake rolexes for regular price.
either way, everyone here is missing the real strategy of changing the black market. it used to be if you bought in on a wednesday, you got all the benefits then could skip the 5th week refresh then buy again. all youve really done is find a way to make it seem like keeping sigil constantly active is some kind of benefit. if none of that makes sense, kabam found a way for sigil to cost $60 a year more, basically.
oh and you changed the terms of the subscription i was paying for without asking, or refunding me, or giving me the option to do anything about it. so yeah, thats kinda crappy.
everyone would agree that what you should have done is just have the rest time be 7 days across the board for everything. thats it. thats all you had to do to make people happy with the price point.
in the meantime, like i said before, you can go ahead and change that legendary crystal price before i laugh so hard my eyeballs fall out.
the sigil though continues to fall short of the $ attached to maintain it. i won't be renewing unless i get something guaranteed in the form of champs. you can offer based on progression or whatever. 4* champs, 5* champs and maybe even a 6* champ should be guaranteed .. one per month. i mean what exactly would that hurt?
$120 for 12 champs. i could convince myself to be okay with that. make them nexus crystals if you must but the guarantee has to be there for me these days if i'm spending actual $.