Well idk still seems sketchy to me,..look at it like a roulette wheel,..perfect example . 24 champs in a featured crystal...out of 5 crystals last featured I got Emma frost x3 and Morningstar x2. If Emma represents the # 10 and MS # 15 out of those 24 numbers then it’s like having 5 spins and spinning the number 10 ..3 times and the number 15 ..2 times out of 5 spins and out of all those numbers lol Idk man ,..those odds seem highly unlikely to me
But that’s just me,..I’m not a big conspiracy theorist,..man landed on the moon,..911 did happen,..but to sit and spin these crystals and look at the outcomes and believe that they run perfectly and to take that at face value... I have my doubts...and will always.
I've had lousy featured, featured cavalier & dual crystal luck. e.g. I have an 80% chance to get new champ or awaken one from the new featured crystal & I keep getting double dupes. It's not just this featured, it's all features. Often I have a 60-70% to get a new champ or awaken one, & I get mostly double dupes or champs I don't want.
I've had lousy luck with lots of other crystals & often moan about it & Kabam. I've actually create a web app where I manage my champs & I have built a crystal puller. It tells me the odds of getting a new champ, awakening or a double dupe & I can open X amount of crystals to emulate what I might pull. I've used actually used a "Random" rather than "Rigged" NG & it's interesting to see the results & how they vary, even when opening big batches of crystals.
To be honest I have probably been too critical of Kabam's RNG although I am sure that their weighting isn't even for every champion in the crystal. I am sure I've have read that Kabam have confirmed this.
However it's very frustrating that there is so much luck involved. e.g. I ideally need Aegon to finish off LOL. I could wait years & open 100s of crystals & not get him. I know someone who opened 10 feature Aegon crystals & got 2x 6* Aegon & a 5* Aegon. I've open about 15 & got a 5* Sentry & have got 3x 5*s from 57 featured cavaliers & two thirds have been 3*s.
Ideally they should address this. Maybe there should be guaranteed odds - e.g. you buy 10x featured crystals & you're guaranteed one 5*.
Kabam have talked about creating a 5* crystal where you choose 30 champs to go into it. If that actually happens it will be massively better.
Oh wait ...help button half works again same as always lol,..worked perfectly til I had 36 left to help then just flashes when you tap ..but doesn’t register ,....so back to normal working perfectly as it always has 🤣😂😂🤣
Back of the envelope here, but assuming there are ~50 champs in the tech/cosmic dual pool, that means you have ~2% chance of pulling any one of them with each spin.
Across 25 dual class crystals, if you wanted just one of the champs, you’d have about a 40% chance of pulling him or her once over 25 crystals. If it was either of a pair of champs, your odds of pulling him or her once over 25 crystals improves to around 64%.
The calculation for pulling the same champ 6X over 25 dual crystal pulls is more complex, but it is fair to say that has a very, very low probability (I assume you mean 6X when you say your Goblin is now L120).
Repeated similar outcomes aren't impossible under pRNG systems. In fact, they may occur more so than we might think of as “normally random.”
While I do not doubt that some form of valid pRNG engine underpins the game, OP makes a point that is often made here: namely, that it “feels” like there are a lot of very rare results on the disadvantageous side that pop up in game.
Observation bias? Something else? At some point, it is fruitless to speculate because we will never see the code.
But I will say that I empathize with OP, as does anyone else who has played this game for a period of time, because it does quite often seem like the odds aren’t in our favor—even when they should be.
Dr. Zola
This right here, I don’t ever see anyone pulling six Nick Furies out of 25 dual crystals but I’ve seen plenty of people who have pulled six agent venoms and six rogues.
Well now you've seen the hat trick in 5* and 6* crystals.
I'm kind of curious to know, without calculating, what people think the odds of this happening are. I'll bet almost no one guesses anything close to the right number.
Realized this was floating around in my drafts @DNA3000 and I never posted.
If it’s as simple as something like P(A) x P(B) x P(C)—using approximate numbers for champs in each pool and assuming the first two were duals—then around1/300,000 to 1/400,000. Which is to say not ridiculous.
I’ve opened 35 dual science crystals..... 0/35 on Human Torch
That's RNG. Same chance at pulling him each time. It doesn't mean if you don't pull him the first time, you have a better chance the next time, and it doesn't mean you're guaranteed at least once in 35 tries.
I’ve opened 35 dual science crystals..... 0/35 on Human Torch
I think that only gets you ~50% chance you’d pull one particular champ once across 35 tries (based on a guess of 50 total outcomes in the crystal). So it’s a toss-up and you wound up on the wrong side of 50-50.
Getting the same champion multiple times in a row has become so common that even though I know it is possible with RNG, it makes me feel kinda suspicious.
Me and some of my alliancemates open crystals in hoard, once a month. I got Sorc Supreme twice in a row, then MODOK, then Kingpin all within the same day. My alliancemate got Annihilus thrice in a row in the featured. Then another one got Winter Soldier in a basic, twice... in a row. Yea, I know it's possible with RNG, it's just that everytime this happens my eyes get squinty like Leonardo De Carpio's. Lol.
I'm genuinely curious about the odds, both for your examples and mine.
The odds of pulling two in a row are far higher than most people think, because the first one can be anything, the second one just has to match. So the odds of pulling doubles is about equal to the number of possibilities in the crystal, like say one in 150 or however many are in there. If you open lots of crystals, doubling up should happen on occasion.
Does it happen *more* often than it should? I'd like to say no, but this is one of the few places where I wouldn't make a definitive statement and the data is relatively silent. When I did analysis of huge amounts of PHC crystal openings, there was the barest tiny hint of a correlation signal in the data, but not strong enough to say it couldn't just be random. And I wouldn't trust my own anecdotal observations on something that subtle.
I will say that any bug or anomaly that could cause someone to open two in a row in rapid-fire openings can't really affect openings widely separated, like by a day, even if they are consecutive openings for the player. There's no bug that does that, and there's no reason for the game code to deliberately do that, even if Kabam was of a mind to manipulate crystal odds. So that's almost certainly just luck.
Idk I got a Dr Doom out of 5 Mystic/Science ones. The thing is, this doesn’t guarantee anything. It just roughly triples your odds of getting a specific champion, which sounds nice until you realize the original odds of getting 1 champion out of a hundred or so kind of sucks, so tripling those odds don’t really change much.
And if you’re hoping for a “good” champion, assuming that “good” champions are evenly distributed between classes, the odds haven’t changed at all
Honestly, it yields me more sanity to just accept that it lands where it lands. Last 5* Featured, I pulled Ultron 5 times. There's no big mystery. I just pulled him 5 times.
i love dual-class crystals and 6-star basics (now I'm going to get flooded with disagree's)
I mean, they narrow the RNG down. It took me a couple tries to get Pyramid X (after numerous attempts in the Featured), but I wouldn't make them a goal for all my Shards, unless I was absolutely determined.
I’ve always believed theres RNG, but certain champs have a higher probability to be pulled. Hence back to back to back memes, but never anything useful.
My luck over all has just been awful, so maybe I’m biased but somehow I manage to just pull ****
The abundance of times Ive pulled the same champion back to back or at the same time does make me stop and do a double take but Ive pulled double memes, double god tiers and double mid tier champions, so in my experience of playing nearly 4 years, it can go either or any way.
I have the same experience as your recently. Pulled the dual crystals twice within the same day but both are Gully......
Back of the envelope here, but assuming there are ~50 champs in the tech/cosmic dual pool, that means you have ~2% chance of pulling any one of them with each spin.
Across 25 dual class crystals, if you wanted just one of the champs, you’d have about a 40% chance of pulling him or her once over 25 crystals. If it was either of a pair of champs, your odds of pulling him or her once over 25 crystals improves to around 64%.
The calculation for pulling the same champ 6X over 25 dual crystal pulls is more complex, but it is fair to say that has a very, very low probability (I assume you mean 6X when you say your Goblin is now L120).
Repeated similar outcomes aren't impossible under pRNG systems. In fact, they may occur more so than we might think of as “normally random.”
While I do not doubt that some form of valid pRNG engine underpins the game, OP makes a point that is often made here: namely, that it “feels” like there are a lot of very rare results on the disadvantageous side that pop up in game.
Observation bias? Something else? At some point, it is fruitless to speculate because we will never see the code.
But I will say that I empathize with OP, as does anyone else who has played this game for a period of time, because it does quite often seem like the odds aren’t in our favor—even when they should be.
Dr. Zola
This right here, I don’t ever see anyone pulling six Nick Furies out of 25 dual crystals but I’ve seen plenty of people who have pulled six agent venoms and six rogues.
That might be because if people pull a 'bad' champ they don`t want 6 times the complain. But if they get a couple of the champs they want they stay silent. It is highly improbable that you would pull that many of one champ. But since there are way more champions people would be sad about, than champ who they would be happy about. Makes the chance of hearing something possitive highly unlikely.
I’ve always believed theres RNG, but certain champs have a higher probability to be pulled. Hence back to back to back memes, but never anything useful.
My luck over all has just been awful, so maybe I’m biased but somehow I manage to just pull ****
Idk I got a Dr Doom out of 5 Mystic/Science ones. The thing is, this doesn’t guarantee anything. It just roughly triples your odds of getting a specific champion, which sounds nice until you realize the original odds of getting 1 champion out of a hundred or so kind of sucks, so tripling those odds don’t really change much.
And if you’re hoping for a “good” champion, assuming that “good” champions are evenly distributed between classes, the odds haven’t changed at all
The odds change quite significantly if you happen to be deficient in a specific class or 2. Mine happened to be science and mystic (by an extremely large margin), so the odds of getting my targeted champions (who were all exclusively those 2 classes) were greatly increased as opposed to hoping for those same champions from the greater basic pool. And of the 10 I wanted, I have pulled 8 of them thus far.
I'm genuinely curious about the odds, both for your examples and mine.
The odds of pulling two in a row are far higher than most people think, because the first one can be anything, the second one just has to match. So the odds of pulling doubles is about equal to the number of possibilities in the crystal, like say one in 150 or however many are in there. If you open lots of crystals, doubling up should happen on occasion.
Does it happen *more* often than it should? I'd like to say no, but this is one of the few places where I wouldn't make a definitive statement and the data is relatively silent. When I did analysis of huge amounts of PHC crystal openings, there was the barest tiny hint of a correlation signal in the data, but not strong enough to say it couldn't just be random. And I wouldn't trust my own anecdotal observations on something that subtle.
I will say that any bug or anomaly that could cause someone to open two in a row in rapid-fire openings can't really affect openings widely separated, like by a day, even if they are consecutive openings for the player. There's no bug that does that, and there's no reason for the game code to deliberately do that, even if Kabam was of a mind to manipulate crystal odds. So that's almost certainly just luck.
So what’s your calculation for back to back Hood duals followed by a Hood 6*?
I'm genuinely curious about the odds, both for your examples and mine.
The odds of pulling two in a row are far higher than most people think, because the first one can be anything, the second one just has to match. So the odds of pulling doubles is about equal to the number of possibilities in the crystal, like say one in 150 or however many are in there. If you open lots of crystals, doubling up should happen on occasion.
Does it happen *more* often than it should? I'd like to say no, but this is one of the few places where I wouldn't make a definitive statement and the data is relatively silent. When I did analysis of huge amounts of PHC crystal openings, there was the barest tiny hint of a correlation signal in the data, but not strong enough to say it couldn't just be random. And I wouldn't trust my own anecdotal observations on something that subtle.
I will say that any bug or anomaly that could cause someone to open two in a row in rapid-fire openings can't really affect openings widely separated, like by a day, even if they are consecutive openings for the player. There's no bug that does that, and there's no reason for the game code to deliberately do that, even if Kabam was of a mind to manipulate crystal odds. So that's almost certainly just luck.
So what’s your calculation for back to back Hood duals followed by a Hood 6*?
Dr. Zola
Assuming there were about 55 champs in the mystic/science dual class crystal at the time, and about 140 champs in the 6* basic at the time, about 7700 to one.
The naive calculation would be 1/55 * 1/55 * 1/140, or one in 423500. However, this is where the actuarial rubber meets the road. Three Hoods in a row would be one in 423500. But had I pulled three Dooms in a row, or three Caps in a row, I'd still be posting the same thing. The noteworthy thing in this case is three champs in a row. Which is one in 7700.
The concept of noteworthiness in statistical analysis is a complex thing. But you can illustrate the importance of the concept by opening three crystals in a row and then asking what the odds of that specific sequence coming up is. No matter what you pull, the odds of that specific sequence coming up is exactly the same. Hood followed by Hood followed by Hood has the exact same odds as Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm. Since every champ has the same chance of appearing (if it is in the crystal) the odds for all sequences must be identical. But nobody posts their Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm openings, because nobody cares. And I didn't post my opening because Hood was coming up, it was because it was three of a kind. Any three of a kind would have generated the same "result" - namely me preserving and commenting on the opening.
This is *not* an easy thing to wrap your mind around, and it has to do with the fact that probability is extremely well defined when it comes to events that haven't happened yet. If, before I opened any crystals you asked what the odds of opening three Hoods in row were, that would be one in 423500. But probability is not quite so well defined when the events have already happened. Asking the same question *after* I open crystals is more tricky, because the odds of that happening are now 100% - because it happened. The question you're really asking is "what would the odds have been before you opened the crystals" but you yourself have been affected by the opening: you're asking about Hood, because you now know Hood comes up. In effect, your question has been contaminated by knowledge of the future. And removing that contamination to do the right calculation keeps statisticians up at night.
I feel you bro, that why I i saved up 80 k Splitter and open 8 crystal together to maximal the chance of getting Warlock Ghost , Hyperion or Venom and it was worth it . May be you can try it too. Good Luck!
Comments
24 champs in a featured crystal...out of 5 crystals last featured I got Emma frost x3 and Morningstar x2.
If Emma represents the # 10 and MS # 15 out of those 24 numbers then it’s like having 5 spins and spinning the number 10 ..3 times and the number 15 ..2 times out of 5 spins and out of all those numbers lol
Idk man ,..those odds seem highly unlikely to me
I have my doubts...and will always.
I've had lousy luck with lots of other crystals & often moan about it & Kabam. I've actually create a web app where I manage my champs & I have built a crystal puller. It tells me the odds of getting a new champ, awakening or a double dupe & I can open X amount of crystals to emulate what I might pull. I've used actually used a "Random" rather than "Rigged" NG & it's interesting to see the results & how they vary, even when opening big batches of crystals.
To be honest I have probably been too critical of Kabam's RNG although I am sure that their weighting isn't even for every champion in the crystal. I am sure I've have read that Kabam have confirmed this.
However it's very frustrating that there is so much luck involved. e.g. I ideally need Aegon to finish off LOL. I could wait years & open 100s of crystals & not get him. I know someone who opened 10 feature Aegon crystals & got 2x 6* Aegon & a 5* Aegon. I've open about 15 & got a 5* Sentry & have got 3x 5*s from 57 featured cavaliers & two thirds have been 3*s.
Ideally they should address this. Maybe there should be guaranteed odds - e.g. you buy 10x featured crystals & you're guaranteed one 5*.
Kabam have talked about creating a 5* crystal where you choose 30 champs to go into it. If that actually happens it will be massively better.
If it’s as simple as something like P(A) x P(B) x P(C)—using approximate numbers for champs in each pool and assuming the first two were duals—then around1/300,000 to 1/400,000. Which is to say not ridiculous.
Dr. Zola
It does suck when it works like that—I empathize.
Dr. Zola
Me and some of my alliancemates open crystals in hoard, once a month. I got Sorc Supreme twice in a row, then MODOK, then Kingpin all within the same day. My alliancemate got Annihilus thrice in a row in the featured. Then another one got Winter Soldier in a basic, twice... in a row. Yea, I know it's possible with RNG, it's just that everytime this happens my eyes get squinty like Leonardo De Carpio's. Lol.
Does it happen *more* often than it should? I'd like to say no, but this is one of the few places where I wouldn't make a definitive statement and the data is relatively silent. When I did analysis of huge amounts of PHC crystal openings, there was the barest tiny hint of a correlation signal in the data, but not strong enough to say it couldn't just be random. And I wouldn't trust my own anecdotal observations on something that subtle.
I will say that any bug or anomaly that could cause someone to open two in a row in rapid-fire openings can't really affect openings widely separated, like by a day, even if they are consecutive openings for the player. There's no bug that does that, and there's no reason for the game code to deliberately do that, even if Kabam was of a mind to manipulate crystal odds. So that's almost certainly just luck.
And if you’re hoping for a “good” champion, assuming that “good” champions are evenly distributed between classes, the odds haven’t changed at all
Dr. Zola
The naive calculation would be 1/55 * 1/55 * 1/140, or one in 423500. However, this is where the actuarial rubber meets the road. Three Hoods in a row would be one in 423500. But had I pulled three Dooms in a row, or three Caps in a row, I'd still be posting the same thing. The noteworthy thing in this case is three champs in a row. Which is one in 7700.
The concept of noteworthiness in statistical analysis is a complex thing. But you can illustrate the importance of the concept by opening three crystals in a row and then asking what the odds of that specific sequence coming up is. No matter what you pull, the odds of that specific sequence coming up is exactly the same. Hood followed by Hood followed by Hood has the exact same odds as Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm. Since every champ has the same chance of appearing (if it is in the crystal) the odds for all sequences must be identical. But nobody posts their Hulk followed by Magik followed by Storm openings, because nobody cares. And I didn't post my opening because Hood was coming up, it was because it was three of a kind. Any three of a kind would have generated the same "result" - namely me preserving and commenting on the opening.
This is *not* an easy thing to wrap your mind around, and it has to do with the fact that probability is extremely well defined when it comes to events that haven't happened yet. If, before I opened any crystals you asked what the odds of opening three Hoods in row were, that would be one in 423500. But probability is not quite so well defined when the events have already happened. Asking the same question *after* I open crystals is more tricky, because the odds of that happening are now 100% - because it happened. The question you're really asking is "what would the odds have been before you opened the crystals" but you yourself have been affected by the opening: you're asking about Hood, because you now know Hood comes up. In effect, your question has been contaminated by knowledge of the future. And removing that contamination to do the right calculation keeps statisticians up at night.