Summoners, the Necrosword Crystals (the crystals in the Knull Cavalier Preview Bundle) currently have a higher than intended drop rate of 6-Star Champions.

We will be leaving the crystals as is for the time being, but will be correcting the drop rates before Knull receives his official release on October 28th. To ensure that this does not affect anybody that purchased this preview bundle, we will be auto-opening these crystals before that date, but this means you will not see what you received. To avoid any confusion, please open your crystals yourself ASAP.

Nexus Cav drop rates [Merged]



  • TheManMythLegendTheManMythLegend Posts: 4,880 ★★★★★
    Every day we stray further from god
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 13,302 Guardian
    Starhawk said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Sparty6 said:

    I can’t wait to turn this into a thread about “show me your compensation pulls” and watch the trolls cry.

    I'm actually concerned that if Kabam sends out compensation to people who bought the offer, it will cause a ton of people to claim that they now need compensation because had they known the drop odds were in error they would have bought it originally.

    Full disclosure: I weighed the offer last night and decided to get it. So while I think compensation would not be unreasonable in this situation, I would be a beneficiary of that compensation so I have some vested self-interest that could introduce bias.
    they don't need to compensate people that didn't buy the deal. They could simply have the deal available to anyone who didn't originally purchase it.
    That's not as easy as it sounds.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 13,302 Guardian
    Starhawk said:

    I don't even know why there is a debate. The whole notion that they are using the old drop rates on purpose just seems ridiculous to me. If that is the case why weren't the PHC Nexus crystals at 1/3 of their usual rate? The whole purpose of the nexus crystals is to further increase choice. Cavalier crystals have been buffed long enough the buffed rate is now the normal rate. The expected behavior would be the increased rates...especially when this is a Thronebreaker only deal. I don't really know why TB doesn't have their own crystals yet (how about a TB crystal that only has 4,5 and 6 3 stars).

    The purpose of single rarity nexus crystals is to improve player choice: they don't increase the number of champions the player gets of any rarity, they just allow the player to have more agency in which champion they get. But nexus versions of crystals that contain multiple rarities don't just increase choice, they dramatically increase the likelihood of the player getting the top rarity contained within the crystal (nearly tripling that rate). For things like PHCs, that might be seen as insignificant. But for a Cavalier crystal, it is very significant. It triples the value the crystal contains by many players' perceptions of value. You can't automatically assume that was intended. It might be, but the difference between a nexus PHC and a nexus Cav is night and day.
  • MenkentMenkent Posts: 849 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Generally, it takes me less time to do the math for a post as it takes to type the numbers into the post.

    People act like some pretty basic probability calculations are some deep Good Will Hunting stuff. "OMG he knows how to use numbers!" To that end, best post in this merged mega-thread is the bifurcation diagram. No question.
  • grfvbgrfvb Posts: 209 ★★

    grfvb said:

    Wicket329 said:

    grfvb said:

    YoMoves said:

    I have a sneaking suspicion that these cav crystals are not the ones that were wrong.

    I think it may have been the *class* nexii that were wrong.

    I am still of a mind that the 4.5% drop rate on the nexus class crystals were erroneously placed there and that the original drop rate was supposed to be the 1.5% over three spins of a single crystal, exactly how the ones bought yesterday are currently. I am of the mind that someone at Kabam simply oversighted and did not properly do the math/adjust the rates properly on the last set, and that these are actually correct. In which case, this is a bevy of whining about absolutely nothing, and the only possible gripes would be with the class nexus deals (which, as I recall, most people were pretty happy with.)

    But that's speculation. Can't know until someone who is paid to know lets US know. All I'm saying is don't jump to the worst possible conclusions and set the forums on fire searching for a scapegoat. If they messed up, given the (mostly premature at this moment) outrage, they'll likely come out and say it. If not, then you're likely going to get mad anyways, and I can't stop you, but know it'd be over nothing at all in that scenario...

    agreed 1000x here mate.. giving 4.5% on single spin is ridic op
    4.5% is the current 6* drop rate for Featured Cavalier crystals per spin. These are basics, so it should be a 3% 6* drop rate per spin.
    yeh but that's too good no if it was nexus and u got 3 spins.. that's 8.74% chance of getting a 6*
    You're funny, man. You keep adding 3 sets of drop rates together to claim it's supposed to add up to a single drop rate. Of course people thought each individual chance was 3%. That's what's makes them *better* than a standard Cav. Or what *should* have made them better... Otherwise they'd be worse than a standard Cav...
    C'mon man.
    a. not addition, different math operation
    b. there are 3 ways you how you can look at how nexus cav works

    1. Most likely the correct scenario i.e. nexus cav does not get the same buff as basic and featured
    6* 2.97%
    5* 28.88%
    4* 55.64%
    3* 12.5%

    2. What we all hope is the correct scenario (best for players) i.e. nexus cav does get the same buff as basic and featured
    6* 8.73%
    5* 38.12%
    4* 40.64%
    3* 12.5%

    3. What most unlucky people think is happening, hence the cry (imo very unlikely this is the correct one, not sure DNA even considered this one, as it would require kabam changing the code for no reason purely for these crystals
    6* 1%
    5* 11%
    4* 38%
    3* 50%

    Basic Cav buffed odds
    6* 3%
    5* 16%
    4* 31%
    3* 50%

    Compare the odds only 1. vs basic , you can tell even if cav nexuses were not buffed, they are still much better than new basic cavs - no chance of debating against

    Compare 2. vs basic, oof. yes please! i hope that's true, but as said might be too good to be true

    Compare 3. vs basic, odds-wise only worse than basic cavs, but if you weight in the choice factor, it can turn out to be better than basic cav, e.g.people needing certain class ISO - note that non quantitave benefit is always subjective, so yes for some people 'the choice' wouldnt outweight the lower odds

    In conclusion, how ever you interpret the cav nexus crystals work, they are better already 🤷🏿‍♂️ - what are we waiting for is the confirmation from kabam if they are much better (1.) or mucho mucho mucho better (2.)... and i am ignoring (3.) coz honestly that's borderline conspiracy
  • Burrito2525Burrito2525 Posts: 229 ★★
    So was there an update I missed from kabamm, this thread was very active last night and relatively quiet since?
  • Zan0Zan0 Posts: 2,854 ★★★★★
    TRagnarok said:

    Haven’t they had Legendary Nexus Crystals before? They didn’t mess with the drop rate on those to compensate for the fact it was a nexus. How is this any different?

    They have never done it with any nexus crystal ( phc, legendary nexus, class cavs, regular cavs) until these came out so I am 99% sure it was just a mistake and they released the old drop rates accidentally
  • CrcrcrcCrcrcrc Posts: 7,519 ★★★★★

    I’m ftp so I don’t have any input on this actual situation. But to all, don’t argue with DNA3000. They 100% know what they’re talking about and you come across like a troll trying to argue with statistics and numbers.

    That’s why nobody ever argues with him lol. He just threw up some statistics of the chance of a 6* in the cav nexus with the lowered drop rates and everyone is like “wow you solved it”
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 14,015 ★★★★★

    So was there an update I missed from kabamm, this thread was very active last night and relatively quiet since?

    What more do you want exactly? People have pretty much exhausted all their arguments. Nothing else to do but wait and see if there's an answer.
  • Kd101Kd101 Posts: 102
    Specialty crystals where certain champs are unavailable are a good example. They have all champs that are in it listed… and yet Kabam still puts a * at the bottom of the list to make sure you realize that the champ is unavailable. This shouldn’t be necessary since one should be able to deduce the champ is not in the crystal by the list right? It is for the player so that they have less confusion.
  • GildenlowGildenlow Posts: 630 ★★★
    Hey guys, so quick question, how hard actually is deciding either the drop rates were right or it was a mistake?
  • RookiieRookiie Posts: 3,335 ★★★★★
    Gildenlow said:

    Hey guys, so quick question, how hard actually is deciding either the drop rates were right or it was a mistake?

    What's to decide? Even Kabam can change their mind on this if they wanted to.
  • QuikPikQuikPik Posts: 528 ★★★
    Yesterday was a holiday in Canada and it's only 8am there now. Hopefully we will hear something more concrete today.
  • RookiieRookiie Posts: 3,335 ★★★★★
    edited August 3
    Gildenlow said:

    Rookiie said:

    Gildenlow said:

    Hey guys, so quick question, how hard actually is deciding either the drop rates were right or it was a mistake?

    What's to decide? Even Kabam can change their mind on this if they wanted to.
    I was refering to kabam, they say the team is looking up into this. What's to look up? I mean they either made a mistake or no, I think it's a pretty simple question to answer.

    It's like: Hey folks, the drop rates were right, screw you.
    or: Hey folks, the drop rates weren't right, we'll see how to compensate.

    THAT'S IT.
    Oh haha.
    I suppose. I don't think Kabam Boo has the authority to answer back alone on an issue that's stirring the community. I think they would need to escalate it to the wider team, evaluate the current situation, assess the community's feedback, and then have the community leader, aka big boss @Kabam Miike, respond accordingly.
    Hope that helps ✌🏽
This discussion has been closed.