Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

FingerPicknGood

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

With 17.0's update does this mean that they are going to release drop rates?

It's not confirmed at all, but it seems likely.

GroundedWisdom

Nothing in the Notes. We will find out tomorrow.

unknown

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DNA3000

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

With 17.0's update does this mean that they are going to release drop rates?

It seems likely we will get something, since the most reasonable read of the guidelines says certain drop rates must be published for apps to be approved, and other game companies have interpreted that guideline in that way, and Netmarble itself has interpreted the guidelines in roughly that way for a different game (Netmarble owns Kabam).

*What* we are likely to get is another story. Even the most generous read of the guidelines doesn't mandate all lootboxes odds need to be published. Only loot boxes "purchaseable" with cash or (by most people's interpretation) in-game currency that proxies for cash are covered by the guideline. So the drop odds for four star chests in game maps is unlikely to be covered, because we have no way to buy those in any way. My guess is that crystals directly purchaseable with units is covered by the requirement, as is any crystal that is directly offered for in-app purchase (meaning: with cash using the app store in-app purchasing mechanism).

There is a lot of potential grey area here, and this is something that could even evolve over time as Apple decides what is and is not covered. And there are bound to be game companies that try to push the envelope, although we are not likely to see the results of that because the net result of pushing the envelope and losing to Apple is your app doesn't get published or updated until you capitulate to their terms. Only insiders to those games and very observant players are likely to detect such a delay.

Short version is we are likely to get something, that something is not likely to be the odds of all crystals, and this situation could change over time. We will start to see the shape of things soon enough.

Zuko_ILC

Imagine how much more fun this game would be if drop rates increased. Most of us already play this nearly non-stop because we enjoy the features but the least enjoyable part is the extremely low drop rates. I know many people that have stopped spending completely because of it. Spending $1500 for the chance for Blade with a GMC and not getting him (Someone I know) is kinda crazy. He quit the game after that sadly.

LiquidButt

2StarKing wrote: »

This requirement by apple does nothing for us. There are conditions for every crystal opening to attain the champ. Kabam can just publish the most favorable drop rate based on meeting all the conditions. For example if I meet all the conditions, I get a 30% chance to get the champ. If I meet none of the conditions I get a 2% chance to get the champ. Apple will allow the publishing of 30% chance. Knowing the drop rate is meaningless. We need to know the criteria to get favorable drop rate.

Additionally, look at what Kabam has done with featured crystal. There are so many champs in game now. They could just say equal chance for all, which still leads to unfavorable drop rate for champ you want.

You are right in alot of those points but its not about drop rates per say....its about not skirting the rules of the Apple store and treating the player base with a little decency. Kabam isnt above the rules and should comply out of respect to a very dedicated and passionate fan base they are lucky to have ::ahem MARVEL UNIVERSE ::ahem

DNA3000

LiquidButt wrote: »

2StarKing wrote: »

This requirement by apple does nothing for us. There are conditions for every crystal opening to attain the champ. Kabam can just publish the most favorable drop rate based on meeting all the conditions. For example if I meet all the conditions, I get a 30% chance to get the champ. If I meet none of the conditions I get a 2% chance to get the champ. Apple will allow the publishing of 30% chance. Knowing the drop rate is meaningless. We need to know the criteria to get favorable drop rate.

Additionally, look at what Kabam has done with featured crystal. There are so many champs in game now. They could just say equal chance for all, which still leads to unfavorable drop rate for champ you want.

You are right in alot of those points but its not about drop rates per say....its about not skirting the rules of the Apple store and treating the player base with a little decency. Kabam isnt above the rules and should comply out of respect to a very dedicated and passionate fan base they are lucky to have ::ahem MARVEL UNIVERSE ::ahem

Actually, all those points are essentially wrong. There are no weird crystal conditions as the poster claims: that's just player conspiracy conjectures with no facts to support them. If lootbox transparency does anything good in this game, I hope it reduces the number of people who continue to assert this to a manageable level. We don't stop every physics discussion to reprove the Earth is round for the benefit of the flat-earthers. At some point and I hope it is sooner than later I hope we can simply acknowledge that crystal conspiracy nuts exist, but are not relevant to the conversation about crystal drop rates.

FingerPicknGood

DNA3000 wrote: »

... We don't stop every physics discussion to reprove the Earth is round for the benefit of the flat-earthers. At some point and I hope it is sooner than later I hope we can simply acknowledge that crystal conspiracy nuts exist, but are not relevant to the conversation about crystal drop rates.

I said something similar earlier, but this is a much cleaner way of saying it.

I can't believe how hard I've eyerolled at people in Line chats with their Kabam rumors. And I've actually had someone troll groups with flat earther beliefs, which weren't anywhere near as annoying.

MattScott

$10 says we don’t see any drop rates at all published tomorrow.

LiquidButt

DNA3000 wrote: »

LiquidButt wrote: »

2StarKing wrote: »

This requirement by apple does nothing for us. There are conditions for every crystal opening to attain the champ. Kabam can just publish the most favorable drop rate based on meeting all the conditions. For example if I meet all the conditions, I get a 30% chance to get the champ. If I meet none of the conditions I get a 2% chance to get the champ. Apple will allow the publishing of 30% chance. Knowing the drop rate is meaningless. We need to know the criteria to get favorable drop rate.

Additionally, look at what Kabam has done with featured crystal. There are so many champs in game now. They could just say equal chance for all, which still leads to unfavorable drop rate for champ you want.

You are right in alot of those points but its not about drop rates per say....its about not skirting the rules of the Apple store and treating the player base with a little decency. Kabam isnt above the rules and should comply out of respect to a very dedicated and passionate fan base they are lucky to have ::ahem MARVEL UNIVERSE ::ahem

Actually, all those points are essentially wrong. There are no weird crystal conditions as the poster claims: that's just player conspiracy conjectures with no facts to support them. If lootbox transparency does anything good in this game, I hope it reduces the number of people who continue to assert this to a manageable level. We don't stop every physics discussion to reprove the Earth is round for the benefit of the flat-earthers. At some point and I hope it is sooner than later I hope we can simply acknowledge that crystal conspiracy nuts exist, but are not relevant to the conversation about crystal drop rates.

Youre in the academia industry arent you? Man that would explain so much

DNA3000

LiquidButt wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

LiquidButt wrote: »

2StarKing wrote: »

This requirement by apple does nothing for us. There are conditions for every crystal opening to attain the champ. Kabam can just publish the most favorable drop rate based on meeting all the conditions. For example if I meet all the conditions, I get a 30% chance to get the champ. If I meet none of the conditions I get a 2% chance to get the champ. Apple will allow the publishing of 30% chance. Knowing the drop rate is meaningless. We need to know the criteria to get favorable drop rate.

Additionally, look at what Kabam has done with featured crystal. There are so many champs in game now. They could just say equal chance for all, which still leads to unfavorable drop rate for champ you want.

You are right in alot of those points but its not about drop rates per say....its about not skirting the rules of the Apple store and treating the player base with a little decency. Kabam isnt above the rules and should comply out of respect to a very dedicated and passionate fan base they are lucky to have ::ahem MARVEL UNIVERSE ::ahem

Actually, all those points are essentially wrong. There are no weird crystal conditions as the poster claims: that's just player conspiracy conjectures with no facts to support them. If lootbox transparency does anything good in this game, I hope it reduces the number of people who continue to assert this to a manageable level. We don't stop every physics discussion to reprove the Earth is round for the benefit of the flat-earthers. At some point and I hope it is sooner than later I hope we can simply acknowledge that crystal conspiracy nuts exist, but are not relevant to the conversation about crystal drop rates.

Youre in the academia industry arent you? Man that would explain so much

I don't know what that would explain, but no, I'm not anywhere remotely in professional academia. I'm technically an IT consultant, but I don't think that description would give you the right impression either.

phillgreen

MattScott wrote: »

$10 says we don’t see any drop rates at all published tomorrow.

I'm not sure if that is considered gambling or a gamble and without drop rates I can't know for sure whether I should take up this offer.

Do you have an App available for download and does it comply with Apple's policy, if you don't want to release information I know a few people who think they have a firm grasp of the law, a few that have no idea and a couple of really annoying people who I am sure spent high school on the debating team thinking that words would make them popular and attempted to successfully argue that the sky is not blue, you just think it is because blue is popular and that red is just as good.

I'll let you choose but I can't give you exact numbers on who you end up with, oh wait, is that gambling too?

unknown

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Thatweirdguy

Well I am both impressed and disappointed that Kabam found a way to get around revealing drop rates. When I am wrong, I admit I am wrong. I stand corrected I thought for sure Apple would force them to reveal drop rates with this update. I give Kabam credit for finding a way to comply with this rule without revealing drop rates.

DNA3000

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Well I am both impressed and disappointed that Kabam found a way to get around revealing drop rates. When I am wrong, I admit I am wrong. I stand corrected I thought for sure Apple would force them to reveal drop rates with this update. I give Kabam credit for finding a way to comply with this rule without revealing drop rates.

Kabam is slow, so I won't assume they managed to escape the lootbox clause until the end of the day. After that, the odds rise significantly that Kabam negotiated a way around the lootbox clause at least for now, or that Apple isn't really seriously enforcing that clause and wants to see how many companies comply voluntarily before they start rejecting apps. The clause has only been in the guidelines doc for about a month and a half and only publicly well known for about a month, so Apple might be giving companies some unspecified grace period to comply.

Thatweirdguy

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Well I am both impressed and disappointed that Kabam found a way to get around revealing drop rates. When I am wrong, I admit I am wrong. I stand corrected I thought for sure Apple would force them to reveal drop rates with this update. I give Kabam credit for finding a way to comply with this rule without revealing drop rates.

Kabam is slow, so I won't assume they managed to escape the lootbox clause until the end of the day. After that, the odds rise significantly that Kabam negotiated a way around the lootbox clause at least for now, or that Apple isn't really seriously enforcing that clause and wants to see how many companies comply voluntarily before they start rejecting apps. The clause has only been in the guidelines doc for about a month and a half and only publicly well known for about a month, so Apple might be giving companies some unspecified grace period to comply.

It is possible that you are correct. But the fact that GMC's are there without drop rates and that Future Fight released their rates makes me lose hope.

MattScott

MattScott wrote: »

$10 says we don’t see any drop rates at all published tomorrow.

There ya go.

Demonicangel84

Can we not report this to Apple with evidence of them providing offers outside of complying with the mandate? Sooner rather than later one of them will provide a statement if enough people inquire and ping Apple about it. Of course i could be wrong.

Demonicangel84

Also to note, even if there's only been a month of notification to companies for compliance, these rates are already embded in their code. Not too hard to copy and paste. Only reason they would have to be late in providing odds is because the pull rates ARE tied to activity/spending., or a variable identifier that loads each time you open the game. It is also possible that it is a legitimate RNG variable build that depends on each time you load the game. There could be so many variables built into the game for each part of the game, so it makes it harder to decipher and provide definitive odds/rates on lott box pulls.

jaylerd

Demonicangel84 wrote: »

Only reason they would have to be late in providing odds is because the pull rates ARE tied to activity/spending.

They are, Kabam filed for a patent on it. If you spend a lot, you get good rewards. If you stop spending, you'll get a good reward to entice you back into spending.

DNA3000

jaylerd wrote: »

Demonicangel84 wrote: »

Only reason they would have to be late in providing odds is because the pull rates ARE tied to activity/spending.

They are, Kabam filed for a patent on it. If you spend a lot, you get good rewards. If you stop spending, you'll get a good reward to entice you back into spending.

Just because Kabam filed a patent on it, doesn't mean they are using it. But if you believe that because they filed a patent on something they have to be using it, then that patent explicitly states as a part of the patent that the invention specified requires a mechanism for informing the player about the mechanisms that improve their odds, to encourage the player to do those things and thereby make those loot boxes more valuable. The fact that Kabam is not doing that proves beyond all doubt that they are not using the patent in question.

DNA3000

Demonicangel84 wrote: »

Also to note, even if there's only been a month of notification to companies for compliance, these rates are already embded in their code. Not too hard to copy and paste. Only reason they would have to be late in providing odds is because the pull rates ARE tied to activity/spending., or a variable identifier that loads each time you open the game. It is also possible that it is a legitimate RNG variable build that depends on each time you load the game. There could be so many variables built into the game for each part of the game, so it makes it harder to decipher and provide definitive odds/rates on lott box pulls.

That's certainly not the only reason. You can't just copy and paste the drop rates out of the "code" or even the reward tables in the design spreadsheets which would be even easier, because those are not in a format that would be necessarily easy for the average human being to decipher.

Also, in cases where other game companies had odds that varied based on circumstances, they have so far complied with disclosure requirements by publishing the minimum odds the player can encounter. In other words, if the odds of pulling a 4* champion from a PHC was one in 120, except on Sunday when the odds were one in 60, Kabam could publish the drop odds as at least one in 120 for a 4* crystal and be in compliance with other disclosure requirements. Whether that would satisfy Apple is debatable, but it has worked in other cases.

Demonicangel84

jaylerd wrote: »

Demonicangel84 wrote: »

Only reason they would have to be late in providing odds is because the pull rates ARE tied to activity/spending.

They are, Kabam filed for a patent on it. If you spend a lot, you get good rewards. If you stop spending, you'll get a good reward to entice you back into spending.

I read the patent, but doesn't mean that they're using that same formula. And regardless if they are or aren't compiling the information to the publish to the public and have it make sense would take time. Not arguing to argue, but I believe we're all in the same frame of mind. Cough up the numbers, Kabam. A majority of the players have already found out how **** of the return is with these crystal pulls. We're just curious of the pull rates so we can make an educated decision on what's going to provide a better rate on return. Think of it like roulette, bet a specific number higher payout but less odds on return, bet a color and you get higher odds on return but less of a payout. Those willing to risk it are already playing the game and know the about getting "kabamed". Just do what you're told to do be Apple, is all I'm saying.

DNA3000

Demonicangel84 wrote: »

Can we not report this to Apple with evidence of them providing offers outside of complying with the mandate? Sooner rather than later one of them will provide a statement if enough people inquire and ping Apple about it. Of course i could be wrong.

Maybe. Technically speaking, the guidelines are between the app developer and Apple, and are a requirement for Apple. If Kabam fails to satisfy Apple's requirements, that's entirely up to Apple to decide what to do about that. Kabam isn't directly obligated to give us anything, they are only indirectly being asked to do so by Apple. In other words, Kabam isn't specifically violating any "right" we have that we can complain about.

But we can ask Apple why Marvel Contest of Champions appears to have been approved for the app store when it apparently violates a guideline for app store approval. There isn't a direct mechanism for doing that. There are mechanisms for reporting "in-appropriate apps" which might be the only mechanism for lodging this complaint.

Apple is unlikely to respond directly to you. But it may cause them to reexamine MCOC's app store approval. Absent odds disclosures today or some official statement from Kabam that adequately justifies not publishing odds, that is likely the mechanism I will avail myself of as any ordinary customer would have the right to do.

This is a process, and one taking place on a much larger stage than just MCOC. It is a process I feel compelled to participate in, as someone who has participated in massively multiplayer games and followed microtransactions since they first became a thing in online gaming.

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MattScott

Well the specifically offered crystals, for money tofay. No units, 19.99$. So anyone trying to say that’s a loophole. THIS IS A DIRECT, PAY WITH CASH, LOOTBOX

Thatweirdguy

MattScott wrote: »

Well the specifically offered crystals, for money tofay. No units, 19.99$. So anyone trying to say that’s a loophole. THIS IS A DIRECT, PAY WITH CASH, LOOTBOX

I agree with you but Apple must have determined this to be okay. It is unfortunate.

DNA3000

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

Well the specifically offered crystals, for money tofay. No units, 19.99$. So anyone trying to say that’s a loophole. THIS IS A DIRECT, PAY WITH CASH, LOOTBOX

I agree with you but Apple must have determined this to be okay. It is unfortunate.

It seems unlikely we'll see any other announcements this late in the day, so it seems unlikely this app update comes with odds publishing. That is unfortunate, as it seems whoever is in charge of monetization and loot box construction at Kabam feels they are on the right side of history trying to keep these from being disclosed. I tend to grant game developers a lot of discretion and latitude, but I don't find this decision to be a defensible one.