Cavalier crystals - then and now

tkhan08tkhan08 Posts: 183 ★★
I have opened a lot of cavalier crystals from the day one. The first 1-2 weeks, I was getting so many 5*. However, from last two weeks I have noticed 5* not dropping as they were. I asked my alliance mates who also open cavalier crystals and they noticed it too.

To confirm it, I also watched many cavalier crystals opening on YouTube. There is definitely reduction in 5* dropping from these crystals.

Well, today was my last cavalier crystals crystal opening. Got 7 3* and 5 4* from the 12 crystals I opened.

I am sure kabam will deny it but it certainly isn't same it was. Same happened with PHC, when drop rates were visible, I was getting so many 4* from them. It's been over a month I pulled any 4* fun PHC and I open several PHC weekly.
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Comments

  • TheRealApocTheRealApoc Posts: 317 ★★
    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★
    IKON said:

    Definitely agree, I opened 4 crystals today and didn't get a 5*. They've definitely rigged it.

    4 crystals in no way ensures you get a 5*

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    huh, this makes no sense. The the percentages on cav crystals have nothing to do with the champs in them. Each time you open a crystal that is your chance to get a specific * level.
  • I've pulled 3 6*s from ~30 so...I am pretty happy with them!
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Posts: 2,967 ★★★★★

    We all go through different streaks of good luck and bad luck, but that doesn't mean something has changed.

    Players will never get this, sadly.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★
    Jestress said:


    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    This is incorrect information. The chance for a drop on each crystal is independent and has nothing to do with the player base. The odds you see are the chances you have on each crystal. So every time you open a crystal, you have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. This chance does not change, no matter how many crystals you open.
    the individual chance does but the odds of you not pulling one does. Those are 2 different, but related things though
  • Panchulon21Panchulon21 Posts: 1,948 ★★★★
    edited May 2019
    My luck has been on and off with them. Think I’ve opened around 15. Pulled 3 5s and a bunch of 4s. No 6s yet though. I only open them when I complete some hard content (variant, story) I don’t go willy nilly. They’re too addicting lol
  • Sixshot1Sixshot1 Posts: 459 ★★
    IKON said:

    Definitely agree, I opened 4 crystals today and didn't get a 5*. They've definitely rigged it.

    I'm actually having a proper giggle here. Nice pull.
  • Ctleath_013Ctleath_013 Posts: 417 ★★
    It’s called RNG lol
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,185 Guardian

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I'm not even sure what this means, but whatever that is, it isn't correct. The game reported drop rates are almost certainly simply calculated from the reward table weights. As this is not just common practice, but essentially universal practice for games like this, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Furthermore, to the best extent I've been able to test game reported drop rates, sufficiently large data sets always converge to those numbers. There are a lot of streamed or high volume crystal opening data that isn't subject to self-reporting bias. That data shows that all the weird theories people have about how crystals "actually work" are completely false.
  • Spurgeon14Spurgeon14 Posts: 1,317 ★★★

    I've pulled 3 6*s from ~30 so...I am pretty happy with them!

    That's insane luck!
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    There was one set of 10 cavalier crystals where I got 3 6*. So where there’s horribly bad luck someone somewhere else has insanely good luck. It all balances out.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,985 ★★★★★
    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
  • The_Boss9The_Boss9 Posts: 1,394 ★★★
    I’ve opened 30 and gotten 2 5* and no 6* :(
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,985 ★★★★★
    edited May 2019
    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,185 Guardian

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Verzz is correct here, and I think you're misunderstanding what he is saying. He is saying that if there's a 12% chance to get either a 5* or a 6*, the odds of pulling twelve crystals in a row and only getting 3* and 4* champs is a little over 21%, which means while this is not a common occurrence it is also not a particularly rare one, and anyone pulling twelve in a row and not getting a 5* or 6* isn't necessarily proving the published odds wrong, since this would happen to a lot of people even if the published odds are exactly correct.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,985 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Verzz is correct here, and I think you're misunderstanding what he is saying. He is saying that if there's a 12% chance to get either a 5* or a 6*, the odds of pulling twelve crystals in a row and only getting 3* and 4* champs is a little over 21%, which means while this is not a common occurrence it is also not a particularly rare one, and anyone pulling twelve in a row and not getting a 5* or 6* isn't necessarily proving the published odds wrong, since this would happen to a lot of people even if the published odds are exactly correct.
    Perhaps I misunderstood. I thought he was saying there was something wrong with the RNG because it would mean a guaratneed outcome.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,185 Guardian

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,985 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Lormif said:

    Verzz said:

    Verzz said:

    0/12 on cavaliers for 5* and 6* is still over 20% chance to happen so this is not THAT unlikely. If you got lucky before it probably averages out

    you are confusing your luck for the crystal pool percentages. The percentage shown is the available % for those * champions available to everyone. If you take the % of that and figure out how many players there are in the base, the actual drop rates are lower. Because if they weren't we'd all have insane luck. And that is the pure and honest truth about drop rates in the contest.
    I am not confusing anything - The drop rate states that it is 11 percent for a 5* and 1 percent for a 6*. So the chances to get 0/12 are 0.88^12 which is 21.6%
    That's not how RNG works. Each roll is 11%, it's not cumulative. It doesn't mean you're guaranteed one in 10. Each roll is a separate occurrence at that rate.
    Each roll is separate, but he is also mention the odds of not rolling something over the course of multiple rolls. Those are both legit. If I roll a 1 on a 6 sided die the chance on an individual roll is still 1/6, but the chance of me rolling two 1s is 1/36..
    Well, yes and no. I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to separate RNG occurrences because it can go any way. It doesn't account for the randomness that happens. It can give us a ballpark idea on what to expect, but there's no spontaneity in the calculation. Theoretically, you can roll bupkis everytime, or strike it rich.
    Err, you do understand that the entire *idea* of probability is to calculate the likelihood of sets of events occurring. If you don't trust the math to work when calculating the odds of three events happening, you really shouldn't trust the math to work when stating what the odds of one of those events happening is. Because it is fundamentally the same math. In fact, this mathematical foundation has a name: the fundamental counting principle.

    The same principle that determines the odds of a 5* champion dropping is 11% is exactly the same as the one that determines the odds of twelve 3* and 4* champs happening in a row is 21.57%. The math involved is just a short cut for applying the fundamental counting principle to those drops.
    Yet we see people calculating such odds based on their own drops and determining there is something wrong with the RNG. Why? Simply because each roll is a separate outcome. You could roll 10 6*s in a row. Highly improbable, but possible. It would also be a sign that something may be off, but besides that, there are occurrences within RNG that are not calculated by odds. Multiples, "luck", spontaneity.
This discussion has been closed.