**KNOWN AW ISSUE**

Please be aware, there is a known issue with Saga badging when observing the AW map.

The team have found the source of the issue and will be updating with our next build.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

Please be aware, there is a known issue with Saga badging when observing the AW map.

The team have found the source of the issue and will be updating with our next build.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

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## Comments

599★★★6★Thank you sir

1,345★★★★★Both will yield on average

1 t2a

2250 T5B

2 Sig Stones

Difference comes down to

Stable:

1500 6* shards

15000 5* shards

Unstable

1375 6* shards

11500 5* shards

.5 AG

Essentially comes down to giving up some shards for a shot at an AG.

477★★★8,2708,270146★2,898★★★★★8,656★★★★★36,386★★★★★19,068GuardianThe alternate way I present the trade off: if you are interested in picking the statistically best value in the long run, the question is which would you value more: 7000 5* shards and 250 6* shards combined, or one AG. If you think the AG is worth more, the unstable crystal is more valuable. If you think the shards are worth more, the stable crystal is worth more.

That's averages. Here's a different, more complex question: which crystal generates better results more often? In other words, imagine you roll a six sided dice and you can choose one of two options: in the first option no matter what you roll you get ten dollars, and in the second option if you roll 1-5 you get a buck, and if you roll a 6 you get a hundred dollars. Statistically, the second option is better: you'll average $17.50 per roll compared to ten. However, 83% of the time the first option is better: its $10 beats the other option's one dollar five out of six times. So one option "wins" more often, and one option wins more stuff overall. Which crystal wins "more often?"

It would take too long to discuss the methodology in detail and justify it mathematically, but here's basically what I did: I grouped the rewards into four categories: 5* champion rewards, 6* champion rewards, T2/Sig stone rewards, and T5/AG rewards. There's a 40% chance to get 5* champion rewards in each crystal, 20% chance to get 6* champion rewards, 30% chance to get T2/Sig rewards, and 10% chance to get T5/AG rewards. Since these are now identical for both crystals they can be individually compared.

For 5* rewards there's a 75% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 500 shards which is worse than any stable 5* champion reward. So the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal here at least 75% of the time. Furthermore, in the one in eight chance that you pull 5000 shards from the unstable crystal, the stable one would still beat it if you pulled a 5* full crystal (in terms of value) which happens 25% of the time. So overall the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 78.125% of the time.

For 6* rewards there's about a 67% chance for the unstable crystal to pull 250 shards which is worse than either of the stable crystals, so the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.

For T2/Sig rewards the stable crystal generates T2 67% of the time and sig stones 33% of the time, the unstable is the reverse. If you value T2A more than a few 5* sig stones (and I think most but not all players would) then the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal 67% of the time.

Finally, there's the T5AG rewards. Assuming you value an AG as more than 2250 T5 fragments, then the unstable crystal beats the stable one 100% of the time in this category.

Overall, this means the stable crystal will beat the unstable crystal about 64.75% of the time. If you just care about getting better or worse rewards, but not how much better or worse, the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal about two times in three. If you care about the total average haul across lots and lots of openings, then the unstable crystal probably wins overall (assuming you agree with the value of an AG as stated above).

61★13★23★5,117★★★★★23★5,117★★★★★120★76★2127★1,021★★★525★8,270I hate to break it to you, but it sounds like you ran the Stable Rift.

19,068GuardianJust to summarize the math, assuming most people prefer champion shards (of any kind) to low level catalyst fragments, then for tier 1 and 2 the unstable rift generates better rewards on average (of course, standard caveat: no one individual is going to necessarily get the average). It comes down to 100.75 vs 84.5 T2B and 84.5 vs 71.5 T2C in favor of the stable crystal, but 362.5 vs 412.5 PHC in favor of the unstable rift tier 1. A similar story for tier 2: a little more cat frags (420 vs 280; 350 vs 245), but slightly more 3* shards (325 vs 350) for the unstable rift.

The interesting one is rift 3. Here, the stable rift completely wins, with a caveat. The stable rift as 2340 vs 2160 T4B frags, 1980 vs 1980 T4CC frags (a tie), and 250 vs 162.5 4* shards (and identical sig stone value). The difference is the unstable rift has a 4* awakening gem 7.5% of the time. If a 4* awakening gem has value to you, the unstable tier 3 rift might make sense. But if it doesn't, like say for many players above a certain progress level, then the stable rift generates more rewards on average *and* has less variability in rolls (less chance to get bad luck).

In other words, for players that can still use 5* awakening gems but don't value 4* awakening gems much, the best statistical strategy appears to be to go unstable tier 1, unstable tier 2, *stable* tier 3, and unstable tier 4. This strategy gives you fewer tier 2 and tier 3 catalyst fragments, more PHC, 3*, and 4* shards, and about the same amount of everything else but passes up on the 4* awakening gem.

Assuming I've done the math right; I was working all night.

19,068Guardian36,386★★★★★424★★