We haven't been updated on our fight count in five days. I think the community event is a cool idea, but the community has no idea how far we are.
This does seem weird to me. There's virtually no development resources put into this "event" - no counter, no anything in the game to inform people the event is even happening, just an in-game email. This suggests me that this event is not being driven as a development project, and more of a community or marketing thing from the outside of direct development.
And yet I also don't see huge involvement from either marketing or community either. If either of those groups really wanted this thing, I would think someone from either camp would be making it a priority to keep this thing going. Instead it is just sort of "happening."
I don't mean to suggest that the various developers and other people don't have other things to do. But if I was in charge of this thing, I would make it a point to keep the event in the minds of the players every single day. It takes so little time to do that really, it is genuinely odd that this isn't happening. I kinda feel like I'm more interested in how much progress is being made than Kabam is.
My guess is that the counter means next to nothing and all of these "rewards'" were pre-determined to come out anyways. I find it strange that the dungeon days "reward" lines up perfectly with the end of the month when dungeons are running. They just took the average number of fights per day and spaced out the events to land on an appropriate day. And perhaps that's why they're not concerned with updating the counter. Maybe I'm crazy.
@Jestress said it best. The counter doesn't matter and we will get these rewards whenever Kabam decides they want to give them to us.
How is that true when on the 13 we had 382501844 fights
@Austin555555 and @GOLB ... they had been editing original post on first page of this thread (last Wed and Fri), and added fight count as of those days into Title too (although Fri they forgot to update the “Date” in the title so still looked like Wed date).
And I’m sure they were a little more occupied with higher priority things yesterday (AQ), and weren’t able to get around to doing a new Wed update on fight count as they initially mentioned they would hope to do on each Wed and Fri.
Assuming the posted count was for the same time - 6am - on the 20th, that would mean we averaged about 37.5 million fights per day across those days, which include a weekend.
Interesting. There's no good fit for those numbers assuming constant weekday and weekend fight counts. If we just toss that out and look at the only data points we have, the best fit to the data is to assume the game started counting at midnight on the 6th, in which case across all fourteen days and change so far we've been averaging about 40M-41M fights per day. But that has varied significantly from day to day. One possibility is that fight counts are always higher when the month starts and new content is out, and significantly drop after the first week or two.
The projected date to reach 750M at that rate is about 4:30pm PST on the 24rd, which is Sunday, and the gold arena announcement would then presumably occur on the morning of Monday.
Presumably, then the final milestone would be 1000M and unlock free AQ maps, which at the average rate would happen about 8:40pm on the 30th, which is a Saturday. For those tracking coincidences, the next AQ week starts on the 23rd and runs to the 28th, the following week starts on Sunday, 12/1.
If the numbers are slowing down relative to the start of the "event" then the error bars would tend to lean forward, i.e. towards the milestones being hit later than earlier. But without any solid bracketing of the weekend, the data we have obfuscates daily variability very effectively.
It's pretty amazing that we're hitting every milestone at the most convenient times for Kabam. I'm sure if they had put these events on a calendar they couldn't have gotten better timing then what we have magically gotten so far this month. Great work everyone!
I may have missed something but is the multiplier working correctly in the gold arena
Shouldn't that be around 60k like in the other arenas?
Different arenas have different point values for the same champs. I'm not sure if the gold arena was supposed to have a much higher multiplier for the 6* champs or not, especially given that anyone with those champs was going to max out the milestones pretty quickly regardless.
It's pretty amazing that we're hitting every milestone at the most convenient times for Kabam. I'm sure if they had put these events on a calendar they couldn't have gotten better timing then what we have magically gotten so far this month. Great work everyone!
There's nothing particularly weird about that; it seems that the players' fight activity is relatively similar from day to day, so it wouldn't be hard to predict how long it would take to reach the various milestones.
The weird part is why Kabam thought anyone would care, if they didn't, and they pretty clearly don't. I'm genuinely puzzled, as the last time I saw anything remotely like this involving Marvel it was the Inhumans television series.
The count was updated today, but with the numbers from 3 days ago. I don't understand. Why aren't we being updated with today's count, today?
The logical answer is that a data person was tasked with retrieving the count every Wednesday and Friday morning, and is doing that, and only that. We're getting the count whenever someone gets around to posting it, which in this case was today.
The count was updated today, but with the numbers from 3 days ago. I don't understand. Why aren't we being updated with today's count, today?
The logical answer is that a data person was tasked with retrieving the count every Wednesday and Friday morning, and is doing that, and only that. We're getting the count whenever someone gets around to posting it, which in this case was today.
That's most likely what happens.
The real question is: why even bother at this point?
The moment they decided there was no need to give us a running count, the entire exercise was pointless. But today's update is no more pointless than the first one in retrospect.
Granted, there were distractions that might have tied up the developers and community people, but to be frank there are always distractions. There's a whole community of engaged players out there who could have been relied upon to help Kabam keep the players engaged in this thing, if only they were willing to spend the tiniest amount of effort. There's the entire content creator group for one, and heck I would have been giving numerical play by play just out of reflex if only there was something to give commentary on.
But instead of analyzing the event numbers, I'm analyzing Kabam's lack of interest and enthusiasm for their own event. Which is, in effect, the primary player-facing aspect of the event I can analyze at all.
The most disappointing thing to me is not that players are likely disappointed with this "event." It is actually that I'll bet real cash 95% of the playerbase has no real awareness that an event is even happening, even with the milestone emails factored in. We are in effect being handed rewards based on the number of times someone orders french fries in Italy: an essentially unknown, unknowable, and completely abstract thing players have no way to care about at all.
This is the critical question when it comes to this event. The only question that matters. Does anyone feel like we, the players, accomplished anything? Anything at all? Are we accomplishing anything now? Personally, the notion that every fight I play in the game is "contributing" to this event is a notion that never enters my mind.
You will not find a more quantitatively engaged player than me. And I really tried to be hopeful. But I really don't see the point, and if I don't see the point the odds aren't very good anyone else does.
Because I can't help myself, here's the current projections based on the data to date:
At the current fight count rate, the last milestone will be reached some time on the afternoon of the 30th, Saturday. I don't know if the Thanksgiving weekend changes the numbers much, and frankly since we aren't likely to get any updates during that period there's no point in caring either way, because we'll never know. *If* we get an update on Wednesday, I would expect it to be about 850 million on Wednesday morning. If there's a Black Friday update, it should be around 930 million Friday morning. The servers would have to fall into the ocean or all the players end up in a 72 hour turkey coma for the last milestone to not be reached by Monday.
My theory is that they will say we hit the last milestone regardless if we actually did or not to foster interest at the end of the month and into December.
So if we hit 1,000,000 while this current AQ Series is still going on, are they just gonna wait until many days later until the next AQ Series would startup and have that next week be the FREE MAP week ?
So might get ppl to dedicate some higher champs for that AQ. And the 1st 3 days (4 days before a War Attack) of that AQ will still be before the next AW Season starts up. How convenient 😀
@DNA3000 I haven’t been watching the numbers as closely as you, but I definitely agree with everything you’ve said in this thread. It feels like this event has taken the back burner for Kabam and something that could have been a lot more exciting is now just thrown to the wayside and forgotten between the emails we receive notifying us of the next reached milestone.
It’s not available anymore, thought it should still be good thru midday today. So, I didn’t keep in-game message originally, but top of this Post indicated ending date of 11/27, which would normally be midday Kabam time. But already in very early overnight/morning hours it has vanished.
Wanted to get in some final conversions before it ended.
Apparently. I saw the same thing this morning. The phrase "until November 27th" is somewhat ambiguous as to what it means, although my recollection was that the transmutation event started in the morning, not at midnight. The normal assumption would be that the event would last a whole number of days.
Whoever wrote this should understand that when you use an ambiguous description of time like "until" that ambiguity should resolve in favor of the players, simply because that's the path of least problems. If the intent was to say that it would expire on the 27th and not be running during that day, then you say "through November 26th."
Item Transmutation / Conversion seems to be back live in Store, at least for this evening. So probably was a bug that they inadvertently ended it a day early last night.
Best to get any final Conversions in now, as it probably will actually be ending tomorrow (most likely midday US-time when events normally turnover, or maybe overnight tonight).
Probably the last update of the "event" shows 893 million as of Wednesday, probably 6am. That suggests the weekend was slightly higher, but there's no real way to be sure given the wide bracketing of the data makes that analysis basically impossible. At the current average rate the last milestone will probably be reached some time Friday evening. It kinda depends on whether people play more during the Thanksgiving holiday, or less. But it will almost certainly be hit during the holiday weekend.
If anyone is interested, the average fights per day has been somewhere around 41-42 million. The variation depends on when you think they first started counting fights on the 6th. This is a bit lower than my original guestimate of 50+ million fights per day, based on publicly available data. Still a decent hunk of time. If we assume the average fight is one to two minutes long across all game modes, that's roughly between 700k and 1.4 million hours per day. If the average player plays for one to two hours a day, that's probably something between half a million and one million players logging in per day.
At this point it can’t even be classed as an event. They just scheduled some stuff we get normally anyway, whoever planned this ‘event’ clearly needs a holiday as they’ve obviously completely given up on the year. Go away and clear your head bud, get those creative juices back flowing for next year!
First community wide ‘event’ been an absolute disaster
I honestly think that free map is kinda pointless. Instead they double score aq point would been awesome. Players get more aq reward just one time is cool.
I believe that a community wide event should have these milestones. 250mil 25 phc 500mil 25 3* crystals 750mil 5 4* crystals + 2 4* awakening gems 1bil= 1 5* crystal + 1 t2alpha + 15k t5basic shards 1.250 bil= 5* awakening gem + 5k 5* shards+15k t5basic shards. 1.5 billion= 5k 6* shards+5k 5* shards+25 cavalier crystals 1.750 billion= 5k 6* shards+1 5* feature champ+5 t2 alphas+1 fully formed t5basic 2 billion = 6* featured champion
Just something to entice all players to work together. Plus kabam getting more players in game along with all the $$$ they'll get in the process. Kabam: if your great to the community The payout will be more beneficial and offer buys will increase.
urm so basically newbies can slack and just randomly get a 6*?
I honestly think that free map is kinda pointless. Instead they double score aq point would been awesome. Players get more aq reward just one time is cool.
I’ve actually started doing my fights backwards to reduce the total community count (Ferris Bueller style), just to spite the map 7 alliances.
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And I’m sure they were a little more occupied with higher priority things yesterday (AQ), and weren’t able to get around to doing a new Wed update on fight count as they initially mentioned they would hope to do on each Wed and Fri.
oh well .
Interesting. There's no good fit for those numbers assuming constant weekday and weekend fight counts. If we just toss that out and look at the only data points we have, the best fit to the data is to assume the game started counting at midnight on the 6th, in which case across all fourteen days and change so far we've been averaging about 40M-41M fights per day. But that has varied significantly from day to day. One possibility is that fight counts are always higher when the month starts and new content is out, and significantly drop after the first week or two.
The projected date to reach 750M at that rate is about 4:30pm PST on the 24rd, which is Sunday, and the gold arena announcement would then presumably occur on the morning of Monday.
Presumably, then the final milestone would be 1000M and unlock free AQ maps, which at the average rate would happen about 8:40pm on the 30th, which is a Saturday. For those tracking coincidences, the next AQ week starts on the 23rd and runs to the 28th, the following week starts on Sunday, 12/1.
If the numbers are slowing down relative to the start of the "event" then the error bars would tend to lean forward, i.e. towards the milestones being hit later than earlier. But without any solid bracketing of the weekend, the data we have obfuscates daily variability very effectively.
Shouldn't that be around 60k like in the other arenas?
The weird part is why Kabam thought anyone would care, if they didn't, and they pretty clearly don't. I'm genuinely puzzled, as the last time I saw anything remotely like this involving Marvel it was the Inhumans television series.
Granted, there were distractions that might have tied up the developers and community people, but to be frank there are always distractions. There's a whole community of engaged players out there who could have been relied upon to help Kabam keep the players engaged in this thing, if only they were willing to spend the tiniest amount of effort. There's the entire content creator group for one, and heck I would have been giving numerical play by play just out of reflex if only there was something to give commentary on.
But instead of analyzing the event numbers, I'm analyzing Kabam's lack of interest and enthusiasm for their own event. Which is, in effect, the primary player-facing aspect of the event I can analyze at all.
The most disappointing thing to me is not that players are likely disappointed with this "event." It is actually that I'll bet real cash 95% of the playerbase has no real awareness that an event is even happening, even with the milestone emails factored in. We are in effect being handed rewards based on the number of times someone orders french fries in Italy: an essentially unknown, unknowable, and completely abstract thing players have no way to care about at all.
This is the critical question when it comes to this event. The only question that matters. Does anyone feel like we, the players, accomplished anything? Anything at all? Are we accomplishing anything now? Personally, the notion that every fight I play in the game is "contributing" to this event is a notion that never enters my mind.
You will not find a more quantitatively engaged player than me. And I really tried to be hopeful. But I really don't see the point, and if I don't see the point the odds aren't very good anyone else does.
At the current fight count rate, the last milestone will be reached some time on the afternoon of the 30th, Saturday. I don't know if the Thanksgiving weekend changes the numbers much, and frankly since we aren't likely to get any updates during that period there's no point in caring either way, because we'll never know. *If* we get an update on Wednesday, I would expect it to be about 850 million on Wednesday morning. If there's a Black Friday update, it should be around 930 million Friday morning. The servers would have to fall into the ocean or all the players end up in a 72 hour turkey coma for the last milestone to not be reached by Monday.
So might get ppl to dedicate some higher champs for that AQ.
And the 1st 3 days (4 days before a War Attack) of that AQ will still be before the next AW Season starts up. How convenient 😀
It’s not available anymore, thought it should still be good thru midday today.
So, I didn’t keep in-game message originally, but top of this Post indicated ending date of 11/27, which would normally be midday Kabam time. But already in very early overnight/morning hours it has vanished.
Wanted to get in some final conversions before it ended.
Whoever wrote this should understand that when you use an ambiguous description of time like "until" that ambiguity should resolve in favor of the players, simply because that's the path of least problems. If the intent was to say that it would expire on the 27th and not be running during that day, then you say "through November 26th."
So probably was a bug that they inadvertently ended it a day early last night.
Best to get any final Conversions in now, as it probably will actually be ending tomorrow (most likely midday US-time when events normally turnover, or maybe overnight tonight).
If anyone is interested, the average fights per day has been somewhere around 41-42 million. The variation depends on when you think they first started counting fights on the 6th. This is a bit lower than my original guestimate of 50+ million fights per day, based on publicly available data. Still a decent hunk of time. If we assume the average fight is one to two minutes long across all game modes, that's roughly between 700k and 1.4 million hours per day. If the average player plays for one to two hours a day, that's probably something between half a million and one million players logging in per day.
Those numbers have very large error bars.
Go away and clear your head bud, get those creative juices back flowing for next year!
First community wide ‘event’ been an absolute disaster
Instead they double score aq point would been awesome. Players get more aq reward just one time is cool.