**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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The whole premise is you save Intel until you have 3500, then you start doing rifts. And you do a rift every time you get 500 more Intel, keeping 3000 in the bank. You can do 12 rifts this way. If by then, the gem you wanted hasn't shown up, then you start spending that saved Intel on the final six rifts.
Why is this such a hard concept for people to grasp? If you buy the chronometer up front and do 12 rifts never seeing the gem you want, you're done. And you wasted 3k Intel on a chronometer you didn't use or ended up using on the best possible reward in that 12th rift that wasn't what you really bought it for.
You are allowed to navigate away from the rift, buy the chronometer, go back to the rift and then use it to navigate to the item you want. Because you can do this, it makes zero sense to buy the chronometer up front.
This is not to be confused with actually exiting the rift. You can navigate away (not exit) from the rift quest to go to the store and buy the chronometer. Just like when you're in the middle of a quest and you decide to go to AQ or run out of energy and decide to go do arena or whatever. You're still in the quest/rift but have navigated to other parts of the game.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
So your scenario basically boils down to
A. Guaranteeing one random reward that isn't your first choice in rift 12 or
B. Having six more random rewards with the possibility of getting what you want or even close to it.
The way RNG is in this game, I'd rather have six shots at something good than settle for one guaranteed that's the best of what I didn't necessarily want.
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
I double checked this by watching a few Red Rift runs just to be certain the behavior didn't change.. It can't really - the portal mechanism in Rifts only works if every reward is in there. But for the record, every run I saw had the exact same layout:
Path A: 1k 5* shards
Path B: 5* sig stones
Path C: 2k 5* shards
Path D 4500 T5B fragments
Path E: T2A
Path F: 100 6* shards
Path G: 1k 6* shards
Path H: 5* featured
Path I: 5* AG
Path J: 10k 5* shards.
Every time you enter, you're going to see this. The only difference is the color of the AG and the sig stones. So if you haven't seen the AG you want after run 12, you know with absolute certainty what your choice will be on run #13. It will be the AG of whatever random class pops up, or one of those other rewards. Every single one of them will be in there to choose from, so there's no randomness to that at all. The *only* randomness to the Rifts is a) the color of the class based stuff and b) which path you take if you don't have the Chronometer. The map layout itself is not random.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
So if you're targeting one specific class of AG, buying the Chronometer and doing 13 runs gives you a 91% chance of getting it, and skipping the Chronometer and going for it randomly 18 times gets it 8.6% of the time. 9 out of 10 players get what they want with the Chronometer, and about one in twelve get what they want without the Chronometer.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
To summarize, if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs, then it doesn't matter if you buy in advance or not, because if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs you're going to buy it, and it doesn't matter when you buy it. But if it doesn't come up, the guy who bought up front has no choice: he has to just buy entry #13 and take his chances. So he gets 13 shots at using the Chronometer. If you take your 3000 intel and buy the Chronometer now, you'll also get 13 tries, but you're ultimately no different from the guy who bought up front. If you *don't* buy, then you get six more runs not one more run, but you don't get to use the Chronometer on run #13. So the guy who buys up front gets 13 shots, while you get 12 shots, and then six random runs.
So which would you rather have, is the question. 13 shots at having your class choice pop up, or 12 shots at it and then 6 totally random rifts?
The way the Rifts work, there is in fact a set percentage as to which reward you will get on every run. That's how Rifts have worked since the very first one, and the percentages are published (and in the game):
You will *always* see all of those rewards, each one on a different path in the Rift. After you fight the first fight you will go to a portal that will randomly shoot you to one of those paths. The percentages above are the odds of being sent to each path. Which ever path you end up on contains the reward you will get when/if you complete the Rift.
The rest is unambiguous math.
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
If you don't see what you want in your 12 run, then you can use that 3k Intel for that 4 remaing runs.
*3k Intel will be for the chronometer if you will use it, meaning make sure to save extra 500 Intel for the entry fee.
**Please remember to check if the prize you are looking for is there without moving up the path. Or else you have just wasted your probably one chance to get that prize.
***Buying the Chronometer gives you one extra run.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
I didn't fail to see anything. And I'll also take my chances of not being an idiot and moving before I hop out to buy the CM if my gem shows. I choose not to play scared and pessimistic.
For others whose roster is so-so, getting the chronometer first makes sense.
The way you posted your math is like saying if I open x a.oint of arena crystals I'm guaranteed a punisher. We all know you can't put a number on that.
The 91% odds is referring to how likely you are to SEE a specific class awakening gem during those 13 rift run, not 91% that you will randomly GET the gem during those runs.
Where you then GET the gem is when you use the chronometer to select the path you want (that is the function of the chronometer and is a single use item).
So to repeat; there is a 91% chance that you will SEE the class gem you want during those 13 rifts.. and when you do see it you then use the chronometer to GET the gem.
You have a 3% chance of randomly getting an awakening gem if you don't use the chronometer on that rift and the class of that awakening gem is a 1/6 chance each rift.
Using the chronometer means you pick the path you want in a rift, can only be used once.
The chance of you SEEING the specific class gem you would like to get is 91% over the course of those 13 runs. You SEE the gem... you use the chronometer.
I can't believe this is so difficult to understand.
Actually, don’t think you know how these Rift Quests actually work.
Sounds like you think there is only ever 1 particular item in the WHOLE quest. There are always all 10 Items in the quest every time you enter it (just that the AG will be visible as 1 visible class of 6 potential classes each time you enter the quest), each of the 10 items on a different potential Portal path.
This is RNG based, but the odds are still correct. SEEING the class gem you want is 91% over 12 rifts. Landing on the AG path without the chronometer is 3%, where each rift has a 1 in 6 chance to have the specific class you want. Getting the class AG you want without the chronometer is very slim odds, even over 18 rifts.
The point is if you are looking for a specific class AG, it is worth saving for the chronometer and using it when you see it in the rift you've entered.
I totally concur with DNA analysis of the odds, and echoed them in plain terms in another thread already, coming up with the same odds.