Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
He's saying he SAVED the 3000, NOT that he bought the chronometer. So if he runs 12 and decides he doesn't want to BUY the chronometer with what he SAVED, he can run the extra 6.
It's a sad day when people don't understand what a bank is or using the word as a verb.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
He's saying he SAVED the 3000, NOT that he bought the chronometer. So if he runs 12 and decides he doesn't want to BUY the chronometer with what he SAVED, he can run the extra 6.
That's the reason to get 3k right away, especially since kabam confirmed that you can enter a rift, see what you want, leave rift without quitting, go buy the chronometer, go back into rift and use it.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
He's saying he SAVED the 3000, NOT that he bought the chronometer. So if he runs 12 and decides he doesn't want to BUY the chronometer with what he SAVED, he can run the extra 6.
Does anyone know math? How can you save 3k and still have 18 rifts to run???? Impossible!!!! You can't SAVE unless you give up 6 rifts!!! OMFG!
When you get done 12 rifts and you haven't gotten your gem, you then dip into your saved Intel and buy the remaining rift entries. God you people are daft.
The whole premise is you save Intel until you have 3500, then you start doing rifts. And you do a rift every time you get 500 more Intel, keeping 3000 in the bank. You can do 12 rifts this way. If by then, the gem you wanted hasn't shown up, then you start spending that saved Intel on the final six rifts.
Why is this such a hard concept for people to grasp? If you buy the chronometer up front and do 12 rifts never seeing the gem you want, you're done. And you wasted 3k Intel on a chronometer you didn't use or ended up using on the best possible reward in that 12th rift that wasn't what you really bought it for.
You are allowed to navigate away from the rift, buy the chronometer, go back to the rift and then use it to navigate to the item you want. Because you can do this, it makes zero sense to buy the chronometer up front.
This is not to be confused with actually exiting the rift. You can navigate away (not exit) from the rift quest to go to the store and buy the chronometer. Just like when you're in the middle of a quest and you decide to go to AQ or run out of energy and decide to go do arena or whatever. You're still in the quest/rift but have navigated to other parts of the game.
@DNA3000 , any insight into the 5* FEATURE HERO CRYSTAL (on a 5% chance path)...
is this the same as the currently available 15000 shard Feature Hero Crystal ?
Is that “locked in” to the currently available Feature Hero Set ?
Or what if you hang on to it for a few months until the NEXT 15000 Feature Set comes around before opening it, will it be the THEN FEATURE SET, or still based on what's in there currently.
In general, I believe when the game awards a featured crystal that crystal is the featured type available at the moment it is awarded, not opened, unless otherwise specified. So I think if the Featured crystals was scheduled to change during the event, which Featured you get would depend on the day you ran the Rift.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
Not seeing it. If the AG is what one wants and doesnt see it in the first 12 rifts, you're stuck using a 3k chronometer on the best that 12th rift had to offer. Could be a 1000 6* shards, it could not be. There is no guarantee. If the item I want doesn't show up in 12 rifts, I would rather have six more rifts of random rewards than a guaranteed reward of what random ones show up in the 12th rift.
So your scenario basically boils down to
A. Guaranteeing one random reward that isn't your first choice in rift 12 or
B. Having six more random rewards with the possibility of getting what you want or even close to it.
The way RNG is in this game, I'd rather have six shots at something good than settle for one guaranteed that's the best of what I didn't necessarily want.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
Not seeing it. If the AG is what one wants and doesnt see it in the first 12 rifts, you're stuck using a 3k chronometer on the best that 12th rift had to offer. Could be a 1000 6* shards, it could not be. There is no guarantee. If the item I want doesn't show up in 12 rifts, I would rather have six more rifts of random rewards than a guaranteed reward of what random ones show up in the 12th rift.
It sounds like you think it is possible the 13th Rift could contain any combination of rewards. But that's not how Rifts have ever worked. Every single time you enter, every single reward shows up. That's not random. What is random is which path you take, and thus which reward you get. The only other random component is that class-typed rewards have random class.
I double checked this by watching a few Red Rift runs just to be certain the behavior didn't change.. It can't really - the portal mechanism in Rifts only works if every reward is in there. But for the record, every run I saw had the exact same layout:
Every time you enter, you're going to see this. The only difference is the color of the AG and the sig stones. So if you haven't seen the AG you want after run 12, you know with absolute certainty what your choice will be on run #13. It will be the AG of whatever random class pops up, or one of those other rewards. Every single one of them will be in there to choose from, so there's no randomness to that at all. The *only* randomness to the Rifts is a) the color of the class based stuff and b) which path you take if you don't have the Chronometer. The map layout itself is not random.
respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL
You wouldn't probably get the gem you want in 5 tries. I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts, and you might not even see the gem you want in 5 tries.
"I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts" so you're basing your assumption off the fact that you haven't got an awakening gem, from the rifts that have only been available for 2 days.. and that we've only been able to enter once lol.
No, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that the top rewards are rare. Brushing aside your bizarre rift claim (we've had them several times and they have lasted all month before for multiple entries) The odds of getting the awakening gem in this rift are 3%. In 100 runs you'd be likely to get three 5* gems. You might not even see the class you want in 5 attempts, and if you do you'll have a 3% chance of getting it. So to say that you would be likely to get the gem you want, or even any gem at all, in 5 tries is nonsense. You have about a 50/50 shot of getting one random class gem if you don't buy the chronometer and run 18 rifts.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
If that's your targeted reward, the best strategy is to build up 3000 intel and then buy the chronometer pack, and then start running rifts. This way you have 13 "tries" at using the chronometer. Setting the math aside, 13 tries to roll Skill is better than one, so you want to make sure you have the Chronometer to use on as many runs as possible. Buying it up front is the simplest way to ensure that. Conversely, you can use the strategy of holding enough Intel to buy the Chronometer, and then only buying it if the AG you want shows up. But if you make a mistake and enter a Rift when you only have 2900 Intel and then skill pops up, you're going to kick yourself.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
respect for the thought it took to write all of this. i was leaning one way for sure until you mentioned it's like giving up 5 tries of which you'd probably get that gem anyway. now it's a tough choice .. gee thanks man LOL
You wouldn't probably get the gem you want in 5 tries. I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts, and you might not even see the gem you want in 5 tries.
"I have yet to get an awakening gem of any kind from the rifts" so you're basing your assumption off the fact that you haven't got an awakening gem, from the rifts that have only been available for 2 days.. and that we've only been able to enter once lol.
No, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that the top rewards are rare. Brushing aside your bizarre rift claim (we've had them several times and they have lasted all month before for multiple entries) The odds of getting the awakening gem in this rift are 3%. In 100 runs you'd be likely to get three 5* gems. You might not even see the class you want in 5 attempts, and if you do you'll have a 3% chance of getting it. So to say that you would be likely to get the gem you want, or even any gem at all, in 5 tries is nonsense. You have about a 50/50 shot of getting one random class gem if you don't buy the chronometer and run 18 rifts.
Specifically, the odds of getting any AG at all in 18 runs is 42.4%. But if you want one specific class, the odds of pulling that one specific class AG in 18 runs is 8.6%.
So if you're targeting one specific class of AG, buying the Chronometer and doing 13 runs gives you a 91% chance of getting it, and skipping the Chronometer and going for it randomly 18 times gets it 8.6% of the time. 9 out of 10 players get what they want with the Chronometer, and about one in twelve get what they want without the Chronometer.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
If that's your targeted reward, the best strategy is to build up 3000 intel and then buy the chronometer pack, and then start running rifts. This way you have 13 "tries" at using the chronometer. Setting the math aside, 13 tries to roll Skill is better than one, so you want to make sure you have the Chronometer to use on as many runs as possible. Buying it up front is the simplest way to ensure that. Conversely, you can use the strategy of holding enough Intel to buy the Chronometer, and then only buying it if the AG you want shows up. But if you make a mistake and enter a Rift when you only have 2900 Intel and then skill pops up, you're going to kick yourself.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
If it is true that you can purchase the chronometer while inside the rift, than the best strategy would be to wait until you see the gem you want to get the chronometer as there will be some who never see the gem they want even in 18 runs.
People post the craziest odd. This is a RNG game. There is no 91 percent chance because absolutely nothing is fixed. You might not see an ag at all. You might see them every time. RNG means there is no set chance. Whoever did the 91 percent chance on it probably missed something. First off you would need a set percentage of how often something appears. Now if your after a specific awakening gem it's going to be 6 times unlikely you get the one you want.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
If that's your targeted reward, the best strategy is to build up 3000 intel and then buy the chronometer pack, and then start running rifts. This way you have 13 "tries" at using the chronometer. Setting the math aside, 13 tries to roll Skill is better than one, so you want to make sure you have the Chronometer to use on as many runs as possible. Buying it up front is the simplest way to ensure that. Conversely, you can use the strategy of holding enough Intel to buy the Chronometer, and then only buying it if the AG you want shows up. But if you make a mistake and enter a Rift when you only have 2900 Intel and then skill pops up, you're going to kick yourself.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
If it is true that you can purchase the chronometer while inside the rift, than the best strategy would be to wait until you see the gem you want to get the chronometer as there will be some who never see the gem they want even in 18 runs.
There's two problems with this. The first is you could make a mistake and enter below 3000 intel. Buying up front prevents that error from happening. The second is what I've been trying to explain to crogs above. The difference between saving and not saving isn't what you probably think it is. If the AG doesn't come up after 12 runs, you now have a choice: do you buy the Chronometer without being able to see the map, or not.
To summarize, if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs, then it doesn't matter if you buy in advance or not, because if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs you're going to buy it, and it doesn't matter when you buy it. But if it doesn't come up, the guy who bought up front has no choice: he has to just buy entry #13 and take his chances. So he gets 13 shots at using the Chronometer. If you take your 3000 intel and buy the Chronometer now, you'll also get 13 tries, but you're ultimately no different from the guy who bought up front. If you *don't* buy, then you get six more runs not one more run, but you don't get to use the Chronometer on run #13. So the guy who buys up front gets 13 shots, while you get 12 shots, and then six random runs.
So which would you rather have, is the question. 13 shots at having your class choice pop up, or 12 shots at it and then 6 totally random rifts?
People post the craziest odd. This is a RNG game. There is no 91 percent chance because absolutely nothing is fixed. You might not see an ag at all. You might see them every time. RNG means there is no set chance. Whoever did the 91 percent chance on it probably missed something. First off you would need a set percentage of how often something appears. Now if your after a specific awakening gem it's going to be 6 times unlikely you get the one you want.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
I did the calculation, in the OP.
The way the Rifts work, there is in fact a set percentage as to which reward you will get on every run. That's how Rifts have worked since the very first one, and the percentages are published (and in the game):
You will *always* see all of those rewards, each one on a different path in the Rift. After you fight the first fight you will go to a portal that will randomly shoot you to one of those paths. The percentages above are the odds of being sent to each path. Which ever path you end up on contains the reward you will get when/if you complete the Rift.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
You can't run 18 rifts AND get a chronometer! You have to make a choice to save for the chronometer, meaning skipping 6 rifts
No fooling. I didn't say run 18 rifts. Run the 12 while keeping 3k Intel in the bank. Get through 12 without finding your gem and then run the last 6. Not rocket science.
That's why it's dumb to buy it up front. If you buy it, run 12 rifts and never see the gem you want, you just wasted six rifts of rewards for nothing.
Do you even understand what you wrote? How do you run 12 while keeping 3k banked, then you say if you run 12 without seeing your gem, run the last 6. If you bank 3k, there's only 12 rifts available, no way to run the other 6!
He's saying he SAVED the 3000, NOT that he bought the chronometer. So if he runs 12 and decides he doesn't want to BUY the chronometer with what he SAVED, he can run the extra 6.
That's the reason to get 3k right away, especially since kabam confirmed that you can enter a rift, see what you want, leave rift without quitting, go buy the chronometer, go back into rift and use it.
Yes you gotta save 3k Intel first. Then when running the rift, you see what you want, get the chronometer from Intel Store and go for what it. If you don't see what you want in your 12 run, then you can use that 3k Intel for that 4 remaing runs.
*3k Intel will be for the chronometer if you will use it, meaning make sure to save extra 500 Intel for the entry fee. **Please remember to check if the prize you are looking for is there without moving up the path. Or else you have just wasted your probably one chance to get that prize. ***Buying the Chronometer gives you one extra run.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
If that's your targeted reward, the best strategy is to build up 3000 intel and then buy the chronometer pack, and then start running rifts. This way you have 13 "tries" at using the chronometer. Setting the math aside, 13 tries to roll Skill is better than one, so you want to make sure you have the Chronometer to use on as many runs as possible. Buying it up front is the simplest way to ensure that. Conversely, you can use the strategy of holding enough Intel to buy the Chronometer, and then only buying it if the AG you want shows up. But if you make a mistake and enter a Rift when you only have 2900 Intel and then skill pops up, you're going to kick yourself.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
If it is true that you can purchase the chronometer while inside the rift, than the best strategy would be to wait until you see the gem you want to get the chronometer as there will be some who never see the gem they want even in 18 runs.
There's two problems with this. The first is you could make a mistake and enter below 3000 intel. Buying up front prevents that error from happening. The second is what I've been trying to explain to crogs above. The difference between saving and not saving isn't what you probably think it is. If the AG doesn't come up after 12 runs, you now have a choice: do you buy the Chronometer without being able to see the map, or not.
To summarize, if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs, then it doesn't matter if you buy in advance or not, because if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs you're going to buy it, and it doesn't matter when you buy it. But if it doesn't come up, the guy who bought up front has no choice: he has to just buy entry #13 and take his chances. So he gets 13 shots at using the Chronometer. If you take your 3000 intel and buy the Chronometer now, you'll also get 13 tries, but you're ultimately no different from the guy who bought up front. If you *don't* buy, then you get six more runs not one more run, but you don't get to use the Chronometer on run #13. So the guy who buys up front gets 13 shots, while you get 12 shots, and then six random runs.
So which would you rather have, is the question. 13 shots at having your class choice pop up, or 12 shots at it and then 6 totally random rifts?
Nothing you said matters but the last paragraph. You say six random rifts. It should be 5 extra rewards. The way you use random shifts indicates you're getting junk. So you can be a pessimist with RNG and shoot your shot if you don't see it in 12 and hope 13th is it. Or you can accept getting the extra rewards along with a very minute chance of still getting it. If that 13th doesn't give it to you, you just accept the best of it and you're done. I'd rather take the extra rewards after 12 since they still might be pretty good. Hell, 5* sig stones don't grow in trees, and neither do dupes. I'd take six more sets of them any day if I don't get one of the class AG's I was shooting for.
I didn't fail to see anything. And I'll also take my chances of not being an idiot and moving before I hop out to buy the CM if my gem shows. I choose not to play scared and pessimistic.
Bottom line is regardless of 18 or 12, there is no guarantee you will get a gem, yet alone any of the top prizes in any rift you enter. The chronometer at least guarantees you the opportunity to choose the reward in whichever rift you want. The way this game is, I'll go with 1 guarantee over 18 RNG! To each his own
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
If that's your targeted reward, the best strategy is to build up 3000 intel and then buy the chronometer pack, and then start running rifts. This way you have 13 "tries" at using the chronometer. Setting the math aside, 13 tries to roll Skill is better than one, so you want to make sure you have the Chronometer to use on as many runs as possible. Buying it up front is the simplest way to ensure that. Conversely, you can use the strategy of holding enough Intel to buy the Chronometer, and then only buying it if the AG you want shows up. But if you make a mistake and enter a Rift when you only have 2900 Intel and then skill pops up, you're going to kick yourself.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
If it is true that you can purchase the chronometer while inside the rift, than the best strategy would be to wait until you see the gem you want to get the chronometer as there will be some who never see the gem they want even in 18 runs.
There's two problems with this. The first is you could make a mistake and enter below 3000 intel. Buying up front prevents that error from happening. The second is what I've been trying to explain to crogs above. The difference between saving and not saving isn't what you probably think it is. If the AG doesn't come up after 12 runs, you now have a choice: do you buy the Chronometer without being able to see the map, or not.
To summarize, if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs, then it doesn't matter if you buy in advance or not, because if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs you're going to buy it, and it doesn't matter when you buy it. But if it doesn't come up, the guy who bought up front has no choice: he has to just buy entry #13 and take his chances. So he gets 13 shots at using the Chronometer. If you take your 3000 intel and buy the Chronometer now, you'll also get 13 tries, but you're ultimately no different from the guy who bought up front. If you *don't* buy, then you get six more runs not one more run, but you don't get to use the Chronometer on run #13. So the guy who buys up front gets 13 shots, while you get 12 shots, and then six random runs.
So which would you rather have, is the question. 13 shots at having your class choice pop up, or 12 shots at it and then 6 totally random rifts?
I didn't fail to see anything. And I'll also take my chances of not being an idiot and moving before I hop out to buy the CM if my gem shows. I choose not to play scared and pessimistic.
Yours is probably a stacked roster and nothing in the rewards is a game changer.
For others whose roster is so-so, getting the chronometer first makes sense.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
No, you're wrong. If you use a path selector to get the AG then you're 100% guaranteed to get it if you win all the fights in the path. You just have to wait for whichever class of AG you want to show up. The odds of getting an AG you actually want are 1/6 of 3% if you never use a selector, and if you do that then you still have 18 attempts at it.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
No, you're wrong. If you use a path selector to get the AG then you're 100% guaranteed to get it if you win all the fights in the path. You just have to wait for whichever class of AG you want to show up. The odds of getting an AG you actually want are 1/6 of 3% if you never use a selector, and if you do that then you still have 18 attempts at it.
Your trying to say I'll have a 91% chance at getting one of two ags I want if I read the post right. That isn't true however. I posted that you have a 100% chance to get it. 91% is a wrong number. You only ever have a 3% chance to get any of them on a map and 1/6 of 3% to get the one you want. That number is not going to go up ever.
The way you posted your math is like saying if I open x a.oint of arena crystals I'm guaranteed a punisher. We all know you can't put a number on that.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
No, you're wrong. If you use a path selector to get the AG then you're 100% guaranteed to get it if you win all the fights in the path. You just have to wait for whichever class of AG you want to show up. The odds of getting an AG you actually want are 1/6 of 3% if you never use a selector, and if you do that then you still have 18 attempts at it.
Your trying to say I'll have a 91% chance at getting one of two ags I want if I read the post right. That isn't true however. I posted that you have a 100% chance to get it. 91% is a wrong number. You only ever have a 3% chance to get any of them on a map and 1/6 of 3% to get the one you want. That number is not going to go up ever.
The way you posted your math is like saying if I open x a.oint of arena crystals I'm guaranteed a punisher. We all know you can't put a number on that.
There is a random gem on every path every time. The chances that a class that you want shows up at least once over your thirteen attempts is 91%. If you use the path selector on that attempt then you will get the class AG that you want, because you can choose the path with the AG on it on that particular entry.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
No, you're wrong. If you use a path selector to get the AG then you're 100% guaranteed to get it if you win all the fights in the path. You just have to wait for whichever class of AG you want to show up. The odds of getting an AG you actually want are 1/6 of 3% if you never use a selector, and if you do that then you still have 18 attempts at it.
Your trying to say I'll have a 91% chance at getting one of two ags I want if I read the post right. That isn't true however. I posted that you have a 100% chance to get it. 91% is a wrong number. You only ever have a 3% chance to get any of them on a map and 1/6 of 3% to get the one you want. That number is not going to go up ever.
The way you posted your math is like saying if I open x a.oint of arena crystals I'm guaranteed a punisher. We all know you can't put a number on that.
The problem is you aren't reading the post right.
The 91% odds is referring to how likely you are to SEE a specific class awakening gem during those 13 rift run, not 91% that you will randomly GET the gem during those runs.
Where you then GET the gem is when you use the chronometer to select the path you want (that is the function of the chronometer and is a single use item).
So to repeat; there is a 91% chance that you will SEE the class gem you want during those 13 rifts.. and when you do see it you then use the chronometer to GET the gem.
You have a 3% chance of randomly getting an awakening gem if you don't use the chronometer on that rift and the class of that awakening gem is a 1/6 chance each rift.
Using the chronometer means you pick the path you want in a rift, can only be used once.
The chance of you SEEING the specific class gem you would like to get is 91% over the course of those 13 runs. You SEE the gem... you use the chronometer.
I can't believe this is so difficult to understand.
People post the craziest odd. This is a RNG game. There is no 91 percent chance because absolutely nothing is fixed. You might not see an ag at all. You might see them every time. RNG means there is no set chance. Whoever did the 91 percent chance on it probably missed something. First off you would need a set percentage of how often something appears. Now if your after a specific awakening gem it's going to be 6 times unlikely you get the one you want.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
You’re right, people say the craziest things.
Actually, don’t think you know how these Rift Quests actually work.
Sounds like you think there is only ever 1 particular item in the WHOLE quest. There are always all 10 Items in the quest every time you enter it (just that the AG will be visible as 1 visible class of 6 potential classes each time you enter the quest), each of the 10 items on a different potential Portal path.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
People post the craziest odd. This is a RNG game. There is no 91 percent chance because absolutely nothing is fixed. You might not see an ag at all. You might see them every time. RNG means there is no set chance. Whoever did the 91 percent chance on it probably missed something. First off you would need a set percentage of how often something appears. Now if your after a specific awakening gem it's going to be 6 times unlikely you get the one you want.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
You’re right, people say the craziest things.
Actually, don’t think you know how these Rift Quests actually work.
Sounds like you think there is only ever 1 particular item in the WHOLE quest. There are always all 10 Items in the quest every time you enter it (just that the AG will be visible as 1 visible class of 6 potential classes each time you enter the quest), each of the 10 items on a different potential Portal path.
But the majority of this post discusses going into a rift wanting a specific reward, namely the AG. We all know that all the rewards will be visible, but that's not what the discussion is about.
This is RNG based, but the odds are still correct. SEEING the class gem you want is 91% over 12 rifts. Landing on the AG path without the chronometer is 3%, where each rift has a 1 in 6 chance to have the specific class you want. Getting the class AG you want without the chronometer is very slim odds, even over 18 rifts.
The point is if you are looking for a specific class AG, it is worth saving for the chronometer and using it when you see it in the rift you've entered.
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The whole premise is you save Intel until you have 3500, then you start doing rifts. And you do a rift every time you get 500 more Intel, keeping 3000 in the bank. You can do 12 rifts this way. If by then, the gem you wanted hasn't shown up, then you start spending that saved Intel on the final six rifts.
Why is this such a hard concept for people to grasp? If you buy the chronometer up front and do 12 rifts never seeing the gem you want, you're done. And you wasted 3k Intel on a chronometer you didn't use or ended up using on the best possible reward in that 12th rift that wasn't what you really bought it for.
You are allowed to navigate away from the rift, buy the chronometer, go back to the rift and then use it to navigate to the item you want. Because you can do this, it makes zero sense to buy the chronometer up front.
This is not to be confused with actually exiting the rift. You can navigate away (not exit) from the rift quest to go to the store and buy the chronometer. Just like when you're in the middle of a quest and you decide to go to AQ or run out of energy and decide to go do arena or whatever. You're still in the quest/rift but have navigated to other parts of the game.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
So your scenario basically boils down to
A. Guaranteeing one random reward that isn't your first choice in rift 12 or
B. Having six more random rewards with the possibility of getting what you want or even close to it.
The way RNG is in this game, I'd rather have six shots at something good than settle for one guaranteed that's the best of what I didn't necessarily want.
I'm looking for a skill gem. There can be one in all 18 rifts, and I'm still facing ONLY 3% chance to grab it in each rift.
I double checked this by watching a few Red Rift runs just to be certain the behavior didn't change.. It can't really - the portal mechanism in Rifts only works if every reward is in there. But for the record, every run I saw had the exact same layout:
Path A: 1k 5* shards
Path B: 5* sig stones
Path C: 2k 5* shards
Path D 4500 T5B fragments
Path E: T2A
Path F: 100 6* shards
Path G: 1k 6* shards
Path H: 5* featured
Path I: 5* AG
Path J: 10k 5* shards.
Every time you enter, you're going to see this. The only difference is the color of the AG and the sig stones. So if you haven't seen the AG you want after run 12, you know with absolute certainty what your choice will be on run #13. It will be the AG of whatever random class pops up, or one of those other rewards. Every single one of them will be in there to choose from, so there's no randomness to that at all. The *only* randomness to the Rifts is a) the color of the class based stuff and b) which path you take if you don't have the Chronometer. The map layout itself is not random.
The only reason to hold the intel is if you think you're going to get really lucky, and not only pull skill as the class but then also randomly land on the AG path - there's a 3% chance of that and a 1/6 chance that it is skill when you do. Which means the odds of this happening are 0.5%, or about one in two hundred per run. The odds of this happening in your first twelve runs - before you have to commit to buying the Chronometer anyway - is 5.8%. So one out of every 17 players that do 12 runs of Epic will land on an AG of the specific class they want. Not horrible odds, but not really good odds to bet on for yourself either.
So if you're targeting one specific class of AG, buying the Chronometer and doing 13 runs gives you a 91% chance of getting it, and skipping the Chronometer and going for it randomly 18 times gets it 8.6% of the time. 9 out of 10 players get what they want with the Chronometer, and about one in twelve get what they want without the Chronometer.
Someone else posted earlier the best method to get something you want. Wait to buy until you see an item you want. This way if it doesn't show up at least you can get 5 more rewards. Don't trust percentages unless some hard evidence is posted as to how often something appears.
To summarize, if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs, then it doesn't matter if you buy in advance or not, because if the AG does come up in the first 12 runs you're going to buy it, and it doesn't matter when you buy it. But if it doesn't come up, the guy who bought up front has no choice: he has to just buy entry #13 and take his chances. So he gets 13 shots at using the Chronometer. If you take your 3000 intel and buy the Chronometer now, you'll also get 13 tries, but you're ultimately no different from the guy who bought up front. If you *don't* buy, then you get six more runs not one more run, but you don't get to use the Chronometer on run #13. So the guy who buys up front gets 13 shots, while you get 12 shots, and then six random runs.
So which would you rather have, is the question. 13 shots at having your class choice pop up, or 12 shots at it and then 6 totally random rifts?
The way the Rifts work, there is in fact a set percentage as to which reward you will get on every run. That's how Rifts have worked since the very first one, and the percentages are published (and in the game):
You will *always* see all of those rewards, each one on a different path in the Rift. After you fight the first fight you will go to a portal that will randomly shoot you to one of those paths. The percentages above are the odds of being sent to each path. Which ever path you end up on contains the reward you will get when/if you complete the Rift.
The rest is unambiguous math.
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
If you don't see what you want in your 12 run, then you can use that 3k Intel for that 4 remaing runs.
*3k Intel will be for the chronometer if you will use it, meaning make sure to save extra 500 Intel for the entry fee.
**Please remember to check if the prize you are looking for is there without moving up the path. Or else you have just wasted your probably one chance to get that prize.
***Buying the Chronometer gives you one extra run.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
I didn't fail to see anything. And I'll also take my chances of not being an idiot and moving before I hop out to buy the CM if my gem shows. I choose not to play scared and pessimistic.
For others whose roster is so-so, getting the chronometer first makes sense.
The way you posted your math is like saying if I open x a.oint of arena crystals I'm guaranteed a punisher. We all know you can't put a number on that.
The 91% odds is referring to how likely you are to SEE a specific class awakening gem during those 13 rift run, not 91% that you will randomly GET the gem during those runs.
Where you then GET the gem is when you use the chronometer to select the path you want (that is the function of the chronometer and is a single use item).
So to repeat; there is a 91% chance that you will SEE the class gem you want during those 13 rifts.. and when you do see it you then use the chronometer to GET the gem.
You have a 3% chance of randomly getting an awakening gem if you don't use the chronometer on that rift and the class of that awakening gem is a 1/6 chance each rift.
Using the chronometer means you pick the path you want in a rift, can only be used once.
The chance of you SEEING the specific class gem you would like to get is 91% over the course of those 13 runs. You SEE the gem... you use the chronometer.
I can't believe this is so difficult to understand.
Actually, don’t think you know how these Rift Quests actually work.
Sounds like you think there is only ever 1 particular item in the WHOLE quest. There are always all 10 Items in the quest every time you enter it (just that the AG will be visible as 1 visible class of 6 potential classes each time you enter the quest), each of the 10 items on a different potential Portal path.
This is RNG based, but the odds are still correct. SEEING the class gem you want is 91% over 12 rifts. Landing on the AG path without the chronometer is 3%, where each rift has a 1 in 6 chance to have the specific class you want. Getting the class AG you want without the chronometer is very slim odds, even over 18 rifts.
The point is if you are looking for a specific class AG, it is worth saving for the chronometer and using it when you see it in the rift you've entered.
I totally concur with DNA analysis of the odds, and echoed them in plain terms in another thread already, coming up with the same odds.