I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
Tell that to the odds makers. They all wanted you to buy it up front and said there was no value to holding off and only getting it when you needed it or having the ability to decide to go RNG or all in at rift 12.
I don't know who you're talking about, but if it is me then you haven't understood literally any of my posts in this thread.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
This is a nice summary of the options. I would still say it is better to bank than to buy up front for one reason. Even if you think you will use the chronometer at the end regardless of whether you got what you wanted, RNG may change your mind. If you pull several gems and other top rewards you may decide that 6 more runs is better than sacrificing them for one more chance at the specific gem. If you have garbage RNG you are more likely to want to guarantee getting at least something good. Buying it up front removes the option. Even though in most scenarios A & B are the same, having more options is better.
I think the big picture is more or less what I described, and then there's a bunch of special cases like you describe: what if your random haul is such that it changes your view of the game enough to decide to no longer need the Chronometer is a distinct possibility. But another possibility, as I mentioned, is accidentally entering a Rift with less than 3000 reserve intel and missing out on a reward you really want, or being trapped in the Rift until you can acquire it. I personally think the overall net sum of those possibilities is it is safer to buy ahead, if you intended to do so on Rift #13 in the first place, but that's a judgment call.
There's a specific factor that affects recommendations more than actions. What I do is one thing, what I recommend can be different. When I recommend, I lean in the direction of safety. It is more important to me that my recommendations minimize catastrophic failure than they extract that last percent of efficiency. I would be okay with recommending someone to buy ahead of time, if they met the prerequisites where that makes sense in the first place. But if I recommend waiting and they made a mistake, I'd rather it not be me that was the one that put them in jeopardy. Given the number of players accidentally entering Epic Rifts with 2* teams, I don't regret that decision.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
Tell that to the odds makers. They all wanted you to buy it up front and said there was no value to holding off and only getting it when you needed it or having the ability to decide to go RNG or all in at rift 12.
I don't know who you're talking about, but if it is me then you haven't understood literally any of my posts in this thread.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
This is a nice summary of the options. I would still say it is better to bank than to buy up front for one reason. Even if you think you will use the chronometer at the end regardless of whether you got what you wanted, RNG may change your mind. If you pull several gems and other top rewards you may decide that 6 more runs is better than sacrificing them for one more chance at the specific gem. If you have garbage RNG you are more likely to want to guarantee getting at least something good. Buying it up front removes the option. Even though in most scenarios A & B are the same, having more options is better.
I think the big picture is more or less what I described, and then there's a bunch of special cases like you describe: what if your random haul is such that it changes your view of the game enough to decide to no longer need the Chronometer is a distinct possibility. But another possibility, as I mentioned, is accidentally entering a Rift with less than 3000 reserve intel and missing out on a reward you really want, or being trapped in the Rift until you can acquire it. I personally think the overall net sum of those possibilities is it is safer to buy ahead, if you intended to do so on Rift #13 in the first place, but that's a judgment call.
There's a specific factor that affects recommendations more than actions. What I do is one thing, what I recommend can be different. When I recommend, I lean in the direction of safety. It is more important to me that my recommendations minimize catastrophic failure than they extract that last percent of efficiency. I would be okay with recommending someone to buy ahead of time, if they met the prerequisites where that makes sense in the first place. But if I recommend waiting and they made a mistake, I'd rather it not be me that was the one that put them in jeopardy. Given the number of players accidentally entering Epic Rifts with 2* teams, I don't regret that decision.
That's a fair point. Buying up front would remove the screw up factor. Of course they still could enter with 2*s with the chronometer on the one run that has the gem lol. I guess the answer is if you play it right, keeping 3k intel gives you the most options. If you are sure you will use it regardless or if you are prone to screw ups just buy it.
For a vast majority of the player base 5* gems are rare and valuable.
Screw the odds, I went into my first rift with the chrono, took the skill gem (for Aegon) and walked away happy.
To be honest, every class has multiple great options just waiting for the right champ, mystic is probably the weakest and people like me need them all.
First event of its type in a long time that was worth the cost.
I feel dumb, I know you already explained but how did you count the chance of getting the right AG? Each time I open the quest, there is 1/6 chance there is the one AG I desire, correct? And next time, the chance is same, 1/6 because you can get the same gem lets say 10x in a row hypothetically. So how did you count again that out of 13? pulls you have over 90% chance to pull what you want?
P.S.: If you are gonna answer, please tag me via "@kerneas" I don't wanna get notification about every comment in this discussion and I dont know how to set reminder only on personal replies (via the "quote" button). Any help with this would be appreciated too.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
Tell that to the odds makers. They all wanted you to buy it up front and said there was no value to holding off and only getting it when you needed it or having the ability to decide to go RNG or all in at rift 12.
I don't know who you're talking about, but if it is me then you haven't understood literally any of my posts in this thread.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
This is a nice summary of the options. I would still say it is better to bank than to buy up front for one reason. Even if you think you will use the chronometer at the end regardless of whether you got what you wanted, RNG may change your mind. If you pull several gems and other top rewards you may decide that 6 more runs is better than sacrificing them for one more chance at the specific gem. If you have garbage RNG you are more likely to want to guarantee getting at least something good. Buying it up front removes the option. Even though in most scenarios A & B are the same, having more options is better.
I think the big picture is more or less what I described, and then there's a bunch of special cases like you describe: what if your random haul is such that it changes your view of the game enough to decide to no longer need the Chronometer is a distinct possibility. But another possibility, as I mentioned, is accidentally entering a Rift with less than 3000 reserve intel and missing out on a reward you really want, or being trapped in the Rift until you can acquire it. I personally think the overall net sum of those possibilities is it is safer to buy ahead, if you intended to do so on Rift #13 in the first place, but that's a judgment call.
There's a specific factor that affects recommendations more than actions. What I do is one thing, what I recommend can be different. When I recommend, I lean in the direction of safety. It is more important to me that my recommendations minimize catastrophic failure than they extract that last percent of efficiency. I would be okay with recommending someone to buy ahead of time, if they met the prerequisites where that makes sense in the first place. But if I recommend waiting and they made a mistake, I'd rather it not be me that was the one that put them in jeopardy. Given the number of players accidentally entering Epic Rifts with 2* teams, I don't regret that decision.
Without chopping up your reply, I don't feel like scrolling back. And honestly, any reply that went into paragraphs I just zoned out a sentence in because it's way too much thinking for something you can simply buy when you're in the rift that has the gem of your choice. And if you don't see it going into rift 12, you have choice then and there to go all in on rift 13 or take rng for 13-18.
AGM's are valuable for sure as others have pointed out, but t2a, t5b, 6* shards and so on are also valuable. So my only point was unless you're prone to being stupid, careless and/or plowing forward without thinking, you might as well keep the 3000 spare intel in the bank and only buy the chrono when it's needed.
Diving deeper into odds and everything else is meaningless because you have the option to buy it while in the rift. It's nice to know if that's your thing and brings you peace of mind to reinforce a decision, but I just couldn't deal with the multi-paragraph answers when I said there was simply no reason to buy it up front.
If we're all on the same page in the grand scheme, great, wonderful and warm fuzzies all around.
For me, sure, I'd love more AG's of any class really, but I also have a 6* to R2 with no T2a in the inventory as well as one and a half T5b needed. So with those possible rewards in there and a few gems in the inventory already, I'm fine waiting on the chrono until the class of gem I absolutely need for someone I already have surfaces. And if it doesn't, I'll take six extra shots at RNG to hopefully pull some t5b shards or a t2a. Already got t5b shards once already and a skill gem via rng which was better than the last time they had rifts. And if some sig stones pop up, I won't complain because they're difficult to earn, and awakening someone with no sig stones available and most likely having someone already in need of those stones doesn't really make a ton of sense. I personally won't awaken someone just to awaken them unless their sig is worthwhile at 1 like Fury, Corvus, Cage and so on. So gems sit while someone else is in need of stones. And at that point you might naturally dupe the champ anyway. Like I put stones into Cage, then pulled and duped CapWW2. Now he gets the stones, Cage sits, and I'm sitting on a Science gem. If one pops up in the rift, I'd be stupid to waste a chrono on it. Odds are I'd get a science gem at some point by the time I was ready to put sig stones into a third science champ, because I'm quite sure that won't happen until next year.
Anyway, that's my logic to it all if you didn't zone out before getting through it. As long as people are happy with their choice and getting good pulls/options, all is good.
Without chopping up your reply, I don't feel like scrolling back. And honestly, any reply that went into paragraphs I just zoned out a sentence in because it's way too much thinking for something you can simply buy when you're in the rift that has the gem of your choice..
... (ironic paragraphs later) ...
If we're all on the same page in the grand scheme, great, wonderful and warm fuzzies all around.
... (and yet more paragraphs later) ...
Yes, I think everyone is all on the same page as far as the options that are available to people, it is up to everyone individually to use that info in the way that they feel is best for themselves, and that they would be most comfortable with.
Comments
There's a specific factor that affects recommendations more than actions. What I do is one thing, what I recommend can be different. When I recommend, I lean in the direction of safety. It is more important to me that my recommendations minimize catastrophic failure than they extract that last percent of efficiency. I would be okay with recommending someone to buy ahead of time, if they met the prerequisites where that makes sense in the first place. But if I recommend waiting and they made a mistake, I'd rather it not be me that was the one that put them in jeopardy. Given the number of players accidentally entering Epic Rifts with 2* teams, I don't regret that decision.
I had a generic so any would be great. On my first run after getting the chronometer I got a cosmic and my second random run I got another cosmic lol.
The chronometer is worth it for the 100% chance of a gem but rng might be great for you also with random runs
Screw the odds, I went into my first rift with the chrono, took the skill gem (for Aegon) and walked away happy.
To be honest, every class has multiple great options just waiting for the right champ, mystic is probably the weakest and people like me need them all.
First event of its type in a long time that was worth the cost.
P.S.: If you are gonna answer, please tag me via "@kerneas" I don't wanna get notification about every comment in this discussion and I dont know how to set reminder only on personal replies (via the "quote" button). Any help with this would be appreciated too.
AGM's are valuable for sure as others have pointed out, but t2a, t5b, 6* shards and so on are also valuable. So my only point was unless you're prone to being stupid, careless and/or plowing forward without thinking, you might as well keep the 3000 spare intel in the bank and only buy the chrono when it's needed.
Diving deeper into odds and everything else is meaningless because you have the option to buy it while in the rift. It's nice to know if that's your thing and brings you peace of mind to reinforce a decision, but I just couldn't deal with the multi-paragraph answers when I said there was simply no reason to buy it up front.
If we're all on the same page in the grand scheme, great, wonderful and warm fuzzies all around.
For me, sure, I'd love more AG's of any class really, but I also have a 6* to R2 with no T2a in the inventory as well as one and a half T5b needed. So with those possible rewards in there and a few gems in the inventory already, I'm fine waiting on the chrono until the class of gem I absolutely need for someone I already have surfaces. And if it doesn't, I'll take six extra shots at RNG to hopefully pull some t5b shards or a t2a. Already got t5b shards once already and a skill gem via rng which was better than the last time they had rifts. And if some sig stones pop up, I won't complain because they're difficult to earn, and awakening someone with no sig stones available and most likely having someone already in need of those stones doesn't really make a ton of sense. I personally won't awaken someone just to awaken them unless their sig is worthwhile at 1 like Fury, Corvus, Cage and so on. So gems sit while someone else is in need of stones. And at that point you might naturally dupe the champ anyway. Like I put stones into Cage, then pulled and duped CapWW2. Now he gets the stones, Cage sits, and I'm sitting on a Science gem. If one pops up in the rift, I'd be stupid to waste a chrono on it. Odds are I'd get a science gem at some point by the time I was ready to put sig stones into a third science champ, because I'm quite sure that won't happen until next year.
Anyway, that's my logic to it all if you didn't zone out before getting through it. As long as people are happy with their choice and getting good pulls/options, all is good.