I never said it wasn't a choice. Bottom line is if you're coveting a specific item or two or whatever that you just have to have, then there is still zero reason to buy it beforehand. You can just wait until you see it on the rift and then go buy the chronometer and get your prize.
There is zero harm in waiting to buy it unless you're just plain butt f'ing stupid, lazy, forgetful or what not and see your item and move mistakingly, forgetting to buy it. Idnoyu think you're thta type, then surely buy it up front.
If you are doing the wait and see and make it through 12 rifts without seeing it, this is where the choice comes into play. Are you willing to bank on seeing your coveted prize in rift 13 and buy the Chrono, or do you not want to chance one and done at that point and take the random rewards of six more rifts. If you buy the Chrono and don't see your coveted prize, will you be happy with the best that rift has to offer or do you think you'd be happier with 6 more random rewards?
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
I was going to find the quote, but you saved me the trouble by saying, again:
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
Because this statement is false in multiple ways. First of all, these odds and probabilities you're calling meaningless are the basis for making an informed choice. You might have a preference that supercedes them, but even that is a decision you can only make in an informed way if you know what they are first.
Second, when you say "either you're banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that is in there or not" those are not the only two possibilities. Here's the obvious third: you want as many chances as possible to use the Chronometer on an AG of a particular class. That is neither banking on a reward nor is it "willing to settle." It is taking a calculated risk based on the odds you think are meaningless.
But also, it is contradictory on its face to say "I never said it wasn't a choice" and then say "zero reason to commit ahead of time." You're saying everyone can choose but only one choice is valid, which makes the statement about choice completely meaningless.
Maybe it is you that is willing to settle for the best of whatever RNG happens to give you. If you think that is a valid characterization, it should work both ways.
Your probability and calculations do not change based on when you purchase the chronometer. Having possession of the chronometer doesn't change a thing when you enter a rift because you're allowed to go buy it once you enter it.
So where is this so called benefit of buying it up front? It doesn't make you more or less likely to see your prize of choice when entering a rift. So what is the benefit? Please explain how the odds change by having it in your possession from the get go or waiting to buy it once you see your prize in a rift.
The only thing buying up front does is commit you to only running 13. And if you don't see your prize of choice in 13 runs, you "settle" for the best prize that's on the board in your last rift. If your choice is prize A, but you get prize B, the term for that is called "settling". You took the calculated risk. You failed. Here is your door prize. It's only one prize. But you got to choose it.
If you don't buy it up front, and if you don't see the prize you want after 12 rifts, this is where the real choice and real risk come into play.
Your two choices are
a) buy the chronometer, run rift 13 and take the best prize that's there, hoping it's the prize you want. This is the same result as above if you bought it up front and made it to rift 13 not getting your desired prize.
Or b) say you're done trying to get that one prize after 12. Skip the Chrono and buy the remaining rifts and collect your random prizes.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
Considering having possession of the Chrono before you enter a rift has nothing to do with the rewards shown, and you have the ability to buy it when you're in the rift, the odds are the same. So the benefit of buying it up front is what?
The only thing buying it up front does is remove all possibility of running 18 rifts. It does nothing for improving your odds in any way, shape or form. It removes the choice of deciding after rift 12 to either shoot your shot in 13 or go random for all of the remaining ones.
While not getting the desired prize, you might have gotten some decent random rewards in 12 runs. Maybe to the point the risk of doing number 13 with the chrono isn't worth giving up five more randoms. Maybe, at that point, taking one more shot to guarantee your prize after 12 unsuccessful attempts is no longer worth it.
It all comes down to 13. Is 13 a guaranteed pick or is it the first of the final remaining runs. That is where all your risk is.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
Conflating reasons and choices suggests to me this line of thought doesn’t have a termination point worth pursuing. I think the majority of people who have been actually reading understand the *two^ primary strategies being discussed, and the *multiple* rationales for pursuing each, depending on what the player priorities are.
I don’t think explaining equilibrium theory made Nash crazy, but I can see how it didn’t help any.
It’s easy, by ensuring a 5* awakening thru purchase, you have increased your chances of possibly getting two. I have rolled twice and got the t2a and 1000 6* shards... was I happy? I know that if I had a 5* awakening I would have been happier..lol..
I just have one question and it’s not related to the chance of me getting something.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy
The answer as I understand is “yes”..as long as you don’t quit...but my question is why do u need to wait? If you buy it, it’s there and you can use it whenever you want. .. because I don’t think it likely that a summoner will get more than 1 or 2 awakening gems.. and I think most people would appreciate a 5* awakening..?.
With the chronometer, you have a 100% chance at getting a AG.
Now, you have a 1/6 chance to get the AG you want every time you go in, that is 16.7 percent.
We got 13 tries at it, and if it was 100% unbiased we would have:
The odds are 24% you will have exactly 1 success. The odds are 33% you will have at most 1 success. The odds are 66% you will have the same AG shown up at least 2 times. The odds are 91% you will have at least 1 AG of the one you want.
However, this is assuming this is all fair, and we can't see the actual code in question.
We don't know how Kabam is doing the RNG, and that is the big unknown here, how is it seeded, how is it calculated, and so on.
So, while the above math don't lie (It is a simple dice probability exercise, each side of a die is a class type, mutant, mystic, and so on) without knowing how RNG is being computed, and if it is 100% unbiased, it is impossible for us to say what the real odds are.
Just an update. I decided not to. I ended up pulling 2 Gems, one Mystic the day after I pulled Doom. I figured anything after that is gravy. I'd like one for Sparkles and a Featured, but Imma enjoy the Event and leave it to chance.
I agree with @crogs that there is no benefit to buying it up front provided you don't enter any rifts until you have enough intel to buy one. I did buy it up front because I was sure I was going to use it and didn't want to take Miike's statement as gospel lol. I wanted a science gem and got it on my second rift run. But having seen how the rift works, in retrospect it would have been exactly the same if I had waited and then bought it when I saw the gem. So all buying it up front does is commit you to using it and doing 13 runs at the outset.
With the chronometer, you have a 100% chance at getting a AG.
Now, you have a 1/6 chance to get the AG you want every time you go in, that is 16.7 percent.
We got 13 tries at it, and if it was 100% unbiased we would have:
The odds are 24% you will have exactly 1 success. The odds are 33% you will have at most 1 success. The odds are 66% you will have the same AG shown up at least 2 times. The odds are 91% you will have at least 1 AG of the one you want.
However, this is assuming this is all fair, and we can't see the actual code in question.
We don't know how Kabam is doing the RNG, and that is the big unknown here, how is it seeded, how is it calculated, and so on.
So, while the above math don't lie (It is a simple dice probability exercise, each side of a die is a class type, mutant, mystic, and so on) without knowing how RNG is being computed, and if it is 100% unbiased, it is impossible for us to say what the real odds are.
We don't know how the lootboxes are implemented, but that doesn't mean we know nothing at all. We can make reasonable guesses. For one thing, there's only two real possibilities for the actual pRNG used by the lootbox reward tables. Kabam rolled their own, or they used one provided by their compiler or language tools.
If they rolled their own, odds are it would be horrible. This is virtually impossible to get right. And if they did this, artifacts of it would very likely be visible in things like massive crystal openings. I looked for those artifacts back in the day, and didn't find any. So this is highly unlikely.
If they are using a library implementation, well, we know what those all are. Some are good, some are bad. But that's in relative terms. The number of bits of significance you need to pick one from six is so low, there's no RNG implementation anywhere in modern programming iibraries that has any chance of showing up in code like this that would have a detectable skew with something as coarse as pick one from six. There's just not enough significant bits to resolve that problem.
So for any likely RNG that might be in use in the game, we can be reasonably certain that whatever issues the RNG might have, its going to be statistically valid for assumptions the above calculation requires, namely that any AG is equally likely, and any AG is equally likely to follow any other AG in a sequence of eighteen pulls or less, within the limits of observation. Any RNG that would fail that test wouldn't be packaged in any modern programming math library.
The package is definetly the way to go you will not get anything from those 5 Rifts aside from the basic lines id rather get a guaranteed Reward than a gamble which isn't really a gamble very low chances
also the chrono gives you the ability to choose what awekening gem you want it's better to grab one this way
The package is definetly the way to go you will not get anything from those 5 Rifts aside from the basic lines id rather get a guaranteed Reward than a gamble which isn't really a gamble very low chances
also the chrono gives you the ability to choose what awekening gem you want it's better to grab one this way
I've run quite a few rifts on multiple accounts and have gotten two ag's so far via luck. Weren't necessarily ones I needed. Add in a couple featured 5* crystals. And one where I saw the AG I wanted, and then went and bought the Chrono. So yet again, zero need to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel on hand, go into rift, see if the gem you want is there, if not, go random. If there, go buy it and go back.
One guy has gotten the mutant gem every rift he's done so far. Rng hasn't been in his favor for the class he wants.
If you go 12 rifts and don't see the gem of your choice, I'd rather do six more random than bank it all on one more to see the class I want or settle for a 5* crystal or whatever else is good at that time.
I’m the unluckiest with the chronometer as I’ve had 4 times in a row getting mutant AG which I already have a spare and can’t use on. Something is not right there. I can’t be that unlucky.
Bought the chronometer, was needing a skill awakening gem for nick fury. Got it the next day. Now I can just sit back and just enjoy whatever path has the least beneficial rewards for the remainder of the event...I mean RNG....yea..
Still haven't bought. Contemplated buying it when I saw the skill gem for Kila, but decided I didn't want it that bad. Went random and landed on the gem anyway.
If I don't see the one I really want, I'm sticking with random and doing all 18.
I’m the unluckiest with the chronometer as I’ve had 4 times in a row getting mutant AG which I already have a spare and can’t use on. Something is not right there. I can’t be that unlucky.
Yes you can. Last time they did the rift and were still doing star chests, I got the 1* chest every single time. Biggest waste of effort for that month.
@crogs said: How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
You're right in saying you don't need to buy up front, but that's because of the specific game mechanic that allows you to exit the quest and purchase the chronometer if you see what you want.
What's being recommended is saving up intel so you give yourself best chance of getting what you want, which I think folks running the numbers determined is 91%. The awakening gem is the only RNG reward, there's no other "prize of choice." You save for a chronometer to get an AG of your choice, or to specifically get T2A, 6* shards, t5b etc. But all the other options don't change, you don't need to worry about RNG on those as they're always there when you enter.
So I personally have run 8-9 rooms or so. I'm also interested in a mutant AG. Because I've run some rooms I have fewer chances to make sure I get a mutant AG in my remaining runs. I could get everything but mutant in my remaining 4-5 runs. I was willing to take that risk. But if I don't see a mutant AG then perhaps I'll live my remaining days full of regret, forever haunted I didn't save intel from the start and give myself best chance of getting the gem I want.
If people don't want a specific class of gem then there's less/no need to save intel up front, they can run 12 rooms, see what they get, and still guarantee the non-RNG reward they want in room 13. But if there's a particular class then the reason to save up front is to give yourself best possible chance at what you want. Guaranteeing a reward costs you 5 chances at random rewards regardless, so whether you see your gem in room 1, 5, or 12 doesn't matter, but each time you don't see it you'll be happy to have as many runs remaining as possible.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
Tell that to the odds makers. They all wanted you to buy it up front and said there was no value to holding off and only getting it when you needed it or having the ability to decide to go RNG or all in at rift 12.
I know I'm right, and I know what's being recommended as I and others have been saying it for quite a while.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
Don’t think anyone was here saying you definitely should buy it in advance and use it regardless.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.
Tell that to the odds makers. They all wanted you to buy it up front and said there was no value to holding off and only getting it when you needed it or having the ability to decide to go RNG or all in at rift 12.
I don't know who you're talking about, but if it is me then you haven't understood literally any of my posts in this thread.
Let's not think too much. It's pretty simple actually, if you want a particular class AG, then get the chronometer first and try your luck, now with 100% guarantee to get that gem as long as that particular gem is available in the remaining 13 tries. Else count your blessing as you try it 18 times without the chronometer. Hey who knows, you might get another class AG or even awaken that particular champ thus month from the shards (doubtful).
Why would you buy it now? Keep 3k Intel in the bank and just keep doing rifts until what you want shows itself. If you get through 12 rifts without showing, then you just do 6 more and forget about the chronometer.
To buy it up front makes zero sense.
Actually, it depends, because that strategy has a catch. It will take a bit of time to explain. Let's compare two players, A and B. A buys the Chronometer "first" (saving up) and then starts running Rifts. B saves up enough Intel to buy the Chronometer but then just hangs on to the Intel and buys normal entries.
If the AG they want shows up in the first twelve runs, there's no real difference between the players. A sees it and uses the Chronometer, while B sees it, buys the Chronometer, then uses it. Both get their AG But what happens if they come up empty after twelve?
For A, there's only one option. Enter Rift #13, and if he gets lucky he uses the Chronometer. If he doesn't, he uses the Chronometer on whatever else he might want, because at this point it is use it or lose it. And that's the end for him, because he's used up all his Intel (basically).
For B, it is trickier. After running 12 Rifts he's burned 500x12=6000 Intel. He has 3000 (technically 3030, but let's set that aside) left. He can either buy a Chronometer right now (remember he doesn't have any more entry tickets) or he can just buy a ticket, which essentially commits him to buying six more tickets (because he no longer has the option to buy the Chronometer). But importantly, he has to buy the Chronometer *before* he enters Rift #13.
If he buys the Chronometer, sight unseen, he's really no different than player A, because there's now no difference between them in terms of results. If the AG shows up in Rift #13, player A gets lucky and uses his Chronometer, and so does player B. If it doesn't show up, both use it one whatever else they want (including an AG of a class they didn't want).
So the only difference here is if B decides *not* to buy the Chronometer on Rift #13. In that case he's committed to basically running six Rifts rather than one with the Chronometer. If the AG shows up on Rift #13, he's screwed because he didn't buy the Chronometer (and can't anymore). If the AG doesn't show up, then he gets six runs to player A's one run with the Chronometer.
In my opinion, player A is still better off, but this is a judgment call. If I were player A and the AG doesn't show up on Rift #13, I would then burn it to get the 1000 6* shards. That's a decent consolation prize. Player B gets six runs in which he could get lucky, he could get unlucky, but the statistical average is what I posted in the OP. I think 1000 6* shards is worth more than that basket, but other people's opinion is different.
So: if you "bank" the Intel as you describe, there's no difference between you and a player that buys the Chronometer immediately *unless* both of you get unlucky and do not pull the AG you want. In that case, on Rift #13 you have a choice: buy it blind - in which case you might as well have just bought it at the beginning - or don't buy, and take your chances with six random Rifts. And remember, if the AG you want just happens to show up on Rift #13, you've passed on the Chronometer so the odds of getting it are very low.
If you know, right now, that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will *not* buy the Chronometer, then it makes sense to bank as you describe, because you still have that option. But if you know right now that if the AG you want doesn't show up in 12 Rifts you will still buy the Chronometer anyway, because 1000 6* shards (or some other rewards) is still better than six random Rifts, you might as well buy at the start.
This is a nice summary of the options. I would still say it is better to bank than to buy up front for one reason. Even if you think you will use the chronometer at the end regardless of whether you got what you wanted, RNG may change your mind. If you pull several gems and other top rewards you may decide that 6 more runs is better than sacrificing them for one more chance at the specific gem. If you have garbage RNG you are more likely to want to guarantee getting at least something good. Buying it up front removes the option. Even though in most scenarios A & B are the same, having more options is better.
Comments
There is zero harm in waiting to buy it unless you're just plain butt f'ing stupid, lazy, forgetful or what not and see your item and move mistakingly, forgetting to buy it. Idnoyu think you're thta type, then surely buy it up front.
If you are doing the wait and see and make it through 12 rifts without seeing it, this is where the choice comes into play. Are you willing to bank on seeing your coveted prize in rift 13 and buy the Chrono, or do you not want to chance one and done at that point and take the random rewards of six more rifts. If you buy the Chrono and don't see your coveted prize, will you be happy with the best that rift has to offer or do you think you'd be happier with 6 more random rewards?
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
Because this statement is false in multiple ways. First of all, these odds and probabilities you're calling meaningless are the basis for making an informed choice. You might have a preference that supercedes them, but even that is a decision you can only make in an informed way if you know what they are first.
Second, when you say "either you're banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that is in there or not" those are not the only two possibilities. Here's the obvious third: you want as many chances as possible to use the Chronometer on an AG of a particular class. That is neither banking on a reward nor is it "willing to settle." It is taking a calculated risk based on the odds you think are meaningless.
But also, it is contradictory on its face to say "I never said it wasn't a choice" and then say "zero reason to commit ahead of time." You're saying everyone can choose but only one choice is valid, which makes the statement about choice completely meaningless.
Maybe it is you that is willing to settle for the best of whatever RNG happens to give you. If you think that is a valid characterization, it should work both ways.
So where is this so called benefit of buying it up front? It doesn't make you more or less likely to see your prize of choice when entering a rift. So what is the benefit? Please explain how the odds change by having it in your possession from the get go or waiting to buy it once you see your prize in a rift.
The only thing buying up front does is commit you to only running 13. And if you don't see your prize of choice in 13 runs, you "settle" for the best prize that's on the board in your last rift. If your choice is prize A, but you get prize B, the term for that is called "settling". You took the calculated risk. You failed. Here is your door prize. It's only one prize. But you got to choose it.
If you don't buy it up front, and if you don't see the prize you want after 12 rifts, this is where the real choice and real risk come into play.
Your two choices are
a) buy the chronometer, run rift 13 and take the best prize that's there, hoping it's the prize you want. This is the same result as above if you bought it up front and made it to rift 13 not getting your desired prize.
Or b) say you're done trying to get that one prize after 12. Skip the Chrono and buy the remaining rifts and collect your random prizes.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
Considering having possession of the Chrono before you enter a rift has nothing to do with the rewards shown, and you have the ability to buy it when you're in the rift, the odds are the same. So the benefit of buying it up front is what?
The only thing buying it up front does is remove all possibility of running 18 rifts. It does nothing for improving your odds in any way, shape or form. It removes the choice of deciding after rift 12 to either shoot your shot in 13 or go random for all of the remaining ones.
While not getting the desired prize, you might have gotten some decent random rewards in 12 runs. Maybe to the point the risk of doing number 13 with the chrono isn't worth giving up five more randoms. Maybe, at that point, taking one more shot to guarantee your prize after 12 unsuccessful attempts is no longer worth it.
It all comes down to 13. Is 13 a guaranteed pick or is it the first of the final remaining runs. That is where all your risk is.
I don’t think explaining equilibrium theory made Nash crazy, but I can see how it didn’t help any.
Those that are good at math, and those that aren't.
With the chronometer, you have a 100% chance at getting a AG.
Now, you have a 1/6 chance to get the AG you want every time you go in, that is 16.7 percent.
We got 13 tries at it, and if it was 100% unbiased we would have:
The odds are 24% you will have exactly 1 success.
The odds are 33% you will have at most 1 success.
The odds are 66% you will have the same AG shown up at least 2 times.
The odds are 91% you will have at least 1 AG of the one you want.
However, this is assuming this is all fair, and we can't see the actual code in question.
We don't know how Kabam is doing the RNG, and that is the big unknown here, how is it seeded, how is it calculated, and so on.
So, while the above math don't lie (It is a simple dice probability exercise, each side of a die is a class type, mutant, mystic, and so on) without knowing how RNG is being computed, and if it is 100% unbiased, it is impossible for us to say what the real odds are.
If they rolled their own, odds are it would be horrible. This is virtually impossible to get right. And if they did this, artifacts of it would very likely be visible in things like massive crystal openings. I looked for those artifacts back in the day, and didn't find any. So this is highly unlikely.
If they are using a library implementation, well, we know what those all are. Some are good, some are bad. But that's in relative terms. The number of bits of significance you need to pick one from six is so low, there's no RNG implementation anywhere in modern programming iibraries that has any chance of showing up in code like this that would have a detectable skew with something as coarse as pick one from six. There's just not enough significant bits to resolve that problem.
So for any likely RNG that might be in use in the game, we can be reasonably certain that whatever issues the RNG might have, its going to be statistically valid for assumptions the above calculation requires, namely that any AG is equally likely, and any AG is equally likely to follow any other AG in a sequence of eighteen pulls or less, within the limits of observation. Any RNG that would fail that test wouldn't be packaged in any modern programming math library.
IMO worth it cause I’m so tired of the MCOC Casino never giving up the awakening gem you really need.
id rather get a guaranteed Reward than a gamble which isn't really a gamble very low chances
also the chrono gives you the ability to choose what awekening gem you want it's better to grab one this way
One guy has gotten the mutant gem every rift he's done so far. Rng hasn't been in his favor for the class he wants.
If you go 12 rifts and don't see the gem of your choice, I'd rather do six more random than bank it all on one more to see the class I want or settle for a 5* crystal or whatever else is good at that time.
If I don't see the one I really want, I'm sticking with random and doing all 18.
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
What's being recommended is saving up intel so you give yourself best chance of getting what you want, which I think folks running the numbers determined is 91%. The awakening gem is the only RNG reward, there's no other "prize of choice." You save for a chronometer to get an AG of your choice, or to specifically get T2A, 6* shards, t5b etc. But all the other options don't change, you don't need to worry about RNG on those as they're always there when you enter.
So I personally have run 8-9 rooms or so. I'm also interested in a mutant AG. Because I've run some rooms I have fewer chances to make sure I get a mutant AG in my remaining runs. I could get everything but mutant in my remaining 4-5 runs. I was willing to take that risk. But if I don't see a mutant AG then perhaps I'll live my remaining days full of regret, forever haunted I didn't save intel from the start and give myself best chance of getting the gem I want.
If people don't want a specific class of gem then there's less/no need to save intel up front, they can run 12 rooms, see what they get, and still guarantee the non-RNG reward they want in room 13. But if there's a particular class then the reason to save up front is to give yourself best possible chance at what you want. Guaranteeing a reward costs you 5 chances at random rewards regardless, so whether you see your gem in room 1, 5, or 12 doesn't matter, but each time you don't see it you'll be happy to have as many runs remaining as possible.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.