**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Comments
There is zero harm in waiting to buy it unless you're just plain butt f'ing stupid, lazy, forgetful or what not and see your item and move mistakingly, forgetting to buy it. Idnoyu think you're thta type, then surely buy it up front.
If you are doing the wait and see and make it through 12 rifts without seeing it, this is where the choice comes into play. Are you willing to bank on seeing your coveted prize in rift 13 and buy the Chrono, or do you not want to chance one and done at that point and take the random rewards of six more rifts. If you buy the Chrono and don't see your coveted prize, will you be happy with the best that rift has to offer or do you think you'd be happier with 6 more random rewards?
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
Because this statement is false in multiple ways. First of all, these odds and probabilities you're calling meaningless are the basis for making an informed choice. You might have a preference that supercedes them, but even that is a decision you can only make in an informed way if you know what they are first.
Second, when you say "either you're banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that is in there or not" those are not the only two possibilities. Here's the obvious third: you want as many chances as possible to use the Chronometer on an AG of a particular class. That is neither banking on a reward nor is it "willing to settle." It is taking a calculated risk based on the odds you think are meaningless.
But also, it is contradictory on its face to say "I never said it wasn't a choice" and then say "zero reason to commit ahead of time." You're saying everyone can choose but only one choice is valid, which makes the statement about choice completely meaningless.
Maybe it is you that is willing to settle for the best of whatever RNG happens to give you. If you think that is a valid characterization, it should work both ways.
So where is this so called benefit of buying it up front? It doesn't make you more or less likely to see your prize of choice when entering a rift. So what is the benefit? Please explain how the odds change by having it in your possession from the get go or waiting to buy it once you see your prize in a rift.
The only thing buying up front does is commit you to only running 13. And if you don't see your prize of choice in 13 runs, you "settle" for the best prize that's on the board in your last rift. If your choice is prize A, but you get prize B, the term for that is called "settling". You took the calculated risk. You failed. Here is your door prize. It's only one prize. But you got to choose it.
If you don't buy it up front, and if you don't see the prize you want after 12 rifts, this is where the real choice and real risk come into play.
Your two choices are
a) buy the chronometer, run rift 13 and take the best prize that's there, hoping it's the prize you want. This is the same result as above if you bought it up front and made it to rift 13 not getting your desired prize.
Or b) say you're done trying to get that one prize after 12. Skip the Chrono and buy the remaining rifts and collect your random prizes.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
Considering having possession of the Chrono before you enter a rift has nothing to do with the rewards shown, and you have the ability to buy it when you're in the rift, the odds are the same. So the benefit of buying it up front is what?
The only thing buying it up front does is remove all possibility of running 18 rifts. It does nothing for improving your odds in any way, shape or form. It removes the choice of deciding after rift 12 to either shoot your shot in 13 or go random for all of the remaining ones.
While not getting the desired prize, you might have gotten some decent random rewards in 12 runs. Maybe to the point the risk of doing number 13 with the chrono isn't worth giving up five more randoms. Maybe, at that point, taking one more shot to guarantee your prize after 12 unsuccessful attempts is no longer worth it.
It all comes down to 13. Is 13 a guaranteed pick or is it the first of the final remaining runs. That is where all your risk is.
I don’t think explaining equilibrium theory made Nash crazy, but I can see how it didn’t help any.
Those that are good at math, and those that aren't.
With the chronometer, you have a 100% chance at getting a AG.
Now, you have a 1/6 chance to get the AG you want every time you go in, that is 16.7 percent.
We got 13 tries at it, and if it was 100% unbiased we would have:
The odds are 24% you will have exactly 1 success.
The odds are 33% you will have at most 1 success.
The odds are 66% you will have the same AG shown up at least 2 times.
The odds are 91% you will have at least 1 AG of the one you want.
However, this is assuming this is all fair, and we can't see the actual code in question.
We don't know how Kabam is doing the RNG, and that is the big unknown here, how is it seeded, how is it calculated, and so on.
So, while the above math don't lie (It is a simple dice probability exercise, each side of a die is a class type, mutant, mystic, and so on) without knowing how RNG is being computed, and if it is 100% unbiased, it is impossible for us to say what the real odds are.
If they rolled their own, odds are it would be horrible. This is virtually impossible to get right. And if they did this, artifacts of it would very likely be visible in things like massive crystal openings. I looked for those artifacts back in the day, and didn't find any. So this is highly unlikely.
If they are using a library implementation, well, we know what those all are. Some are good, some are bad. But that's in relative terms. The number of bits of significance you need to pick one from six is so low, there's no RNG implementation anywhere in modern programming iibraries that has any chance of showing up in code like this that would have a detectable skew with something as coarse as pick one from six. There's just not enough significant bits to resolve that problem.
So for any likely RNG that might be in use in the game, we can be reasonably certain that whatever issues the RNG might have, its going to be statistically valid for assumptions the above calculation requires, namely that any AG is equally likely, and any AG is equally likely to follow any other AG in a sequence of eighteen pulls or less, within the limits of observation. Any RNG that would fail that test wouldn't be packaged in any modern programming math library.
IMO worth it cause I’m so tired of the MCOC Casino never giving up the awakening gem you really need.
id rather get a guaranteed Reward than a gamble which isn't really a gamble very low chances
also the chrono gives you the ability to choose what awekening gem you want it's better to grab one this way
One guy has gotten the mutant gem every rift he's done so far. Rng hasn't been in his favor for the class he wants.
If you go 12 rifts and don't see the gem of your choice, I'd rather do six more random than bank it all on one more to see the class I want or settle for a 5* crystal or whatever else is good at that time.
If I don't see the one I really want, I'm sticking with random and doing all 18.
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
What's being recommended is saving up intel so you give yourself best chance of getting what you want, which I think folks running the numbers determined is 91%. The awakening gem is the only RNG reward, there's no other "prize of choice." You save for a chronometer to get an AG of your choice, or to specifically get T2A, 6* shards, t5b etc. But all the other options don't change, you don't need to worry about RNG on those as they're always there when you enter.
So I personally have run 8-9 rooms or so. I'm also interested in a mutant AG. Because I've run some rooms I have fewer chances to make sure I get a mutant AG in my remaining runs. I could get everything but mutant in my remaining 4-5 runs. I was willing to take that risk. But if I don't see a mutant AG then perhaps I'll live my remaining days full of regret, forever haunted I didn't save intel from the start and give myself best chance of getting the gem I want.
If people don't want a specific class of gem then there's less/no need to save intel up front, they can run 12 rooms, see what they get, and still guarantee the non-RNG reward they want in room 13. But if there's a particular class then the reason to save up front is to give yourself best possible chance at what you want. Guaranteeing a reward costs you 5 chances at random rewards regardless, so whether you see your gem in room 1, 5, or 12 doesn't matter, but each time you don't see it you'll be happy to have as many runs remaining as possible.
If you manage to get through 12 rifts and not see the gem you truly want, you're probably not too high on banking rift 13 is going to give it to you or that you'll be happy with a 5* crystal, 1 t2a or whatever is deemed the best reward that's in there. By saving and holding off, you at least give yourself the option to run all 18 rng. If you buy it up front, you don't even have the option. Hence I've said it doesn't benefit you to buy it up front. Keep 3k Intel in the bank and buy it if your gem pops up. If by rift 12, you haven't seen it, then you can decide which route you want to take.
The option would be if after 12 attempts you want to just make sure you can get a guaranteed 5* champ out of it, or press your luck and hope for a low-odds AG (and for it to be an AG you can actually use). But that decision can be made if you never saw the AG you wanted in the first 12 attempts.
Lot of earlier back-n-forth between ppl pushing the same thing. “The sky is blue”. versus “no, the sky is BLUE”.