How is that true when on the 13 we had 382501844 fights
@Austin555555 and @GOLB ... they had been editing original post on first page of this thread (last Wed and Fri), and added fight count as of those days into Title too (although Fri they forgot to update the “Date” in the title so still looked like Wed date).
And I’m sure they were a little more occupied with higher priority things yesterday (AQ), and weren’t able to get around to doing a new Wed update on fight count as they initially mentioned they would hope to do on each Wed and Fri.
Assuming the posted count was for the same time - 6am - on the 20th, that would mean we averaged about 37.5 million fights per day across those days, which include a weekend.
Interesting. There's no good fit for those numbers assuming constant weekday and weekend fight counts. If we just toss that out and look at the only data points we have, the best fit to the data is to assume the game started counting at midnight on the 6th, in which case across all fourteen days and change so far we've been averaging about 40M-41M fights per day. But that has varied significantly from day to day. One possibility is that fight counts are always higher when the month starts and new content is out, and significantly drop after the first week or two.
The projected date to reach 750M at that rate is about 4:30pm PST on the 24rd, which is Sunday, and the gold arena announcement would then presumably occur on the morning of Monday.
Presumably, then the final milestone would be 1000M and unlock free AQ maps, which at the average rate would happen about 8:40pm on the 30th, which is a Saturday. For those tracking coincidences, the next AQ week starts on the 23rd and runs to the 28th, the following week starts on Sunday, 12/1.
If the numbers are slowing down relative to the start of the "event" then the error bars would tend to lean forward, i.e. towards the milestones being hit later than earlier. But without any solid bracketing of the weekend, the data we have obfuscates daily variability very effectively.
It's pretty amazing that we're hitting every milestone at the most convenient times for Kabam. I'm sure if they had put these events on a calendar they couldn't have gotten better timing then what we have magically gotten so far this month. Great work everyone!
I may have missed something but is the multiplier working correctly in the gold arena
Shouldn't that be around 60k like in the other arenas?
Different arenas have different point values for the same champs. I'm not sure if the gold arena was supposed to have a much higher multiplier for the 6* champs or not, especially given that anyone with those champs was going to max out the milestones pretty quickly regardless.
It's pretty amazing that we're hitting every milestone at the most convenient times for Kabam. I'm sure if they had put these events on a calendar they couldn't have gotten better timing then what we have magically gotten so far this month. Great work everyone!
There's nothing particularly weird about that; it seems that the players' fight activity is relatively similar from day to day, so it wouldn't be hard to predict how long it would take to reach the various milestones.
The weird part is why Kabam thought anyone would care, if they didn't, and they pretty clearly don't. I'm genuinely puzzled, as the last time I saw anything remotely like this involving Marvel it was the Inhumans television series.
The count was updated today, but with the numbers from 3 days ago. I don't understand. Why aren't we being updated with today's count, today?
The logical answer is that a data person was tasked with retrieving the count every Wednesday and Friday morning, and is doing that, and only that. We're getting the count whenever someone gets around to posting it, which in this case was today.
The count was updated today, but with the numbers from 3 days ago. I don't understand. Why aren't we being updated with today's count, today?
The logical answer is that a data person was tasked with retrieving the count every Wednesday and Friday morning, and is doing that, and only that. We're getting the count whenever someone gets around to posting it, which in this case was today.
That's most likely what happens.
The real question is: why even bother at this point?
The moment they decided there was no need to give us a running count, the entire exercise was pointless. But today's update is no more pointless than the first one in retrospect.
Granted, there were distractions that might have tied up the developers and community people, but to be frank there are always distractions. There's a whole community of engaged players out there who could have been relied upon to help Kabam keep the players engaged in this thing, if only they were willing to spend the tiniest amount of effort. There's the entire content creator group for one, and heck I would have been giving numerical play by play just out of reflex if only there was something to give commentary on.
But instead of analyzing the event numbers, I'm analyzing Kabam's lack of interest and enthusiasm for their own event. Which is, in effect, the primary player-facing aspect of the event I can analyze at all.
The most disappointing thing to me is not that players are likely disappointed with this "event." It is actually that I'll bet real cash 95% of the playerbase has no real awareness that an event is even happening, even with the milestone emails factored in. We are in effect being handed rewards based on the number of times someone orders french fries in Italy: an essentially unknown, unknowable, and completely abstract thing players have no way to care about at all.
This is the critical question when it comes to this event. The only question that matters. Does anyone feel like we, the players, accomplished anything? Anything at all? Are we accomplishing anything now? Personally, the notion that every fight I play in the game is "contributing" to this event is a notion that never enters my mind.
You will not find a more quantitatively engaged player than me. And I really tried to be hopeful. But I really don't see the point, and if I don't see the point the odds aren't very good anyone else does.
Because I can't help myself, here's the current projections based on the data to date:
At the current fight count rate, the last milestone will be reached some time on the afternoon of the 30th, Saturday. I don't know if the Thanksgiving weekend changes the numbers much, and frankly since we aren't likely to get any updates during that period there's no point in caring either way, because we'll never know. *If* we get an update on Wednesday, I would expect it to be about 850 million on Wednesday morning. If there's a Black Friday update, it should be around 930 million Friday morning. The servers would have to fall into the ocean or all the players end up in a 72 hour turkey coma for the last milestone to not be reached by Monday.
My theory is that they will say we hit the last milestone regardless if we actually did or not to foster interest at the end of the month and into December.
So if we hit 1,000,000 while this current AQ Series is still going on, are they just gonna wait until many days later until the next AQ Series would startup and have that next week be the FREE MAP week ?
So might get ppl to dedicate some higher champs for that AQ. And the 1st 3 days (4 days before a War Attack) of that AQ will still be before the next AW Season starts up. How convenient 😀
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And I’m sure they were a little more occupied with higher priority things yesterday (AQ), and weren’t able to get around to doing a new Wed update on fight count as they initially mentioned they would hope to do on each Wed and Fri.
oh well .
Interesting. There's no good fit for those numbers assuming constant weekday and weekend fight counts. If we just toss that out and look at the only data points we have, the best fit to the data is to assume the game started counting at midnight on the 6th, in which case across all fourteen days and change so far we've been averaging about 40M-41M fights per day. But that has varied significantly from day to day. One possibility is that fight counts are always higher when the month starts and new content is out, and significantly drop after the first week or two.
The projected date to reach 750M at that rate is about 4:30pm PST on the 24rd, which is Sunday, and the gold arena announcement would then presumably occur on the morning of Monday.
Presumably, then the final milestone would be 1000M and unlock free AQ maps, which at the average rate would happen about 8:40pm on the 30th, which is a Saturday. For those tracking coincidences, the next AQ week starts on the 23rd and runs to the 28th, the following week starts on Sunday, 12/1.
If the numbers are slowing down relative to the start of the "event" then the error bars would tend to lean forward, i.e. towards the milestones being hit later than earlier. But without any solid bracketing of the weekend, the data we have obfuscates daily variability very effectively.
Shouldn't that be around 60k like in the other arenas?
The weird part is why Kabam thought anyone would care, if they didn't, and they pretty clearly don't. I'm genuinely puzzled, as the last time I saw anything remotely like this involving Marvel it was the Inhumans television series.
Granted, there were distractions that might have tied up the developers and community people, but to be frank there are always distractions. There's a whole community of engaged players out there who could have been relied upon to help Kabam keep the players engaged in this thing, if only they were willing to spend the tiniest amount of effort. There's the entire content creator group for one, and heck I would have been giving numerical play by play just out of reflex if only there was something to give commentary on.
But instead of analyzing the event numbers, I'm analyzing Kabam's lack of interest and enthusiasm for their own event. Which is, in effect, the primary player-facing aspect of the event I can analyze at all.
The most disappointing thing to me is not that players are likely disappointed with this "event." It is actually that I'll bet real cash 95% of the playerbase has no real awareness that an event is even happening, even with the milestone emails factored in. We are in effect being handed rewards based on the number of times someone orders french fries in Italy: an essentially unknown, unknowable, and completely abstract thing players have no way to care about at all.
This is the critical question when it comes to this event. The only question that matters. Does anyone feel like we, the players, accomplished anything? Anything at all? Are we accomplishing anything now? Personally, the notion that every fight I play in the game is "contributing" to this event is a notion that never enters my mind.
You will not find a more quantitatively engaged player than me. And I really tried to be hopeful. But I really don't see the point, and if I don't see the point the odds aren't very good anyone else does.
At the current fight count rate, the last milestone will be reached some time on the afternoon of the 30th, Saturday. I don't know if the Thanksgiving weekend changes the numbers much, and frankly since we aren't likely to get any updates during that period there's no point in caring either way, because we'll never know. *If* we get an update on Wednesday, I would expect it to be about 850 million on Wednesday morning. If there's a Black Friday update, it should be around 930 million Friday morning. The servers would have to fall into the ocean or all the players end up in a 72 hour turkey coma for the last milestone to not be reached by Monday.
So might get ppl to dedicate some higher champs for that AQ.
And the 1st 3 days (4 days before a War Attack) of that AQ will still be before the next AW Season starts up. How convenient 😀