Ive kept the sigil since the release to give it a chance and see if I could find value in it. Looking at the update to the black iso store I like the reduction in the timer but for the cost of the sigil I'm really not seeing the value in purchasing it again. The legendary crystals are not a decent value for the cost in my opinion. As a player with all my 4* at max sig I see it as a bad gamble. I appreciate the lowered cost for the feature crystal but again with rng playing a big factor in what you pull and the terrible champs added to the feature crystal I personally can't see the value especially with champs being rebalanced months after their release. This isn't a complaint about the cull namor rebalancing since I didn't see that as being too horrible but I prefer to have the champs I gambled with rng for not a retooled version of them. The item capability I received while nice can be just as easily obtained through crystal hording. The sigil while a nice idea just doesn't seem to meet the expectations I would want for a monthly subscription.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards.
Math... Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...
Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*. Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).
——— 5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards. (on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.
Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals. You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275). And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.
— Summary — So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).
Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead.
1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped. 2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?
The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.
Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.
Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not.
Fundamentally speaking, people who are only going to buy one or two crystals, either because they psychologically give up on them or because they don't play long enough or subscribe to the Sigil long enough, could have a high chance of "falling behind" the break even point for the Legendary crystal, but those players also lose practically nothing in the exchange. Someone only buying one or two crystals are changing their progress plus or minus an insignificance amount. More to the point, they aren't trusting the odds. They were expecting to lose, and they gave up as soon as they lost. That's not the odds that did that, that was dependent behavior that did that. That is irrelevant to the value of the crystal. If you're that guy, don't buy them at all.
The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards.
Math... Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...
Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*. Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).
——— 5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards. (on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.
Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals. You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275). And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.
— Summary — So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).
Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead.
1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped. 2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?
The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.
Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.
Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not.
Fundamentally speaking, people who are only going to buy one or two crystals, either because they psychologically give up on them or because they don't play long enough or subscribe to the Sigil long enough, could have a high chance of "falling behind" the break even point for the Legendary crystal, but those players also lose practically nothing in the exchange. Someone only buying one or two crystals are changing their progress plus or minus an insignificance amount. More to the point, they aren't trusting the odds. They were expecting to lose, and they gave up as soon as they lost. That's not the odds that did that, that was dependent behavior that did that. That is irrelevant to the value of the crystal. If you're that guy, don't buy them at all.
The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
@DNA3000 , in your last, are you saying that 1 out of 12 of getting a 5* out of legendary (or 1 out of 24 if not at Max Sig territory yet) would be the minimum rate of getting lucky with 5* draws to make it more worthwhile than just buying basic 4* crystals ?? (just trying to understand what the 12 or 24 numbers represent).
If so, then it matches up with my logic that if the odds are 1 out of 5 (which are the stated odds), that it is basically twice as beneficial statistically to do the Legendary ones.
While I agree with your breakdown of the odds on the legendary crystal I still have to argue that the cost is too high for the additional resources lost. Even if all your champs aren't max sig you are giving up a lot of iso and a small amount of gold for every 4* dupe you would have pulled. While you may pull a 5* 1 out of 5 crystals the lost iso and gold makes the cost too high in a resource reliant game. With the cost of rankups increasing as your game progression continues and rankup resources become more easily obtained this crystal seems like a short term gain at best with it's high cost. There is still value in the sigil if you are willing to trade cash for time when gathering resources but this crystal seems to be a poor addition to the sigil. I dont see it changing the value in the sigil but I fail to see where it adds anything to intice new people to purchase it.
That's an notable point, but even there the Legendary crystal adds something to the Sigil. Most players, even ISO and Gold starved players, probably believe that the 2000 4* -> 1000 5* shard trade is a good one, in that I've never heard of anyone complaining about it. But that does cost ISO and gold: you're trading basically ten 4* champs for one 5* champ, and that means you're likely losing at least ten 4* champs worth of ISO and gold in dups. You might get one dup on the 5* pull, which generates about the same amount as a 4* dup, so the net loss is perhaps nine 4* dups worth.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
Sadly, I was still more asleep than awake when I went to the Sigil store and unintentionally traded in 5k 4* shards for the Legendary (fancy word for 4*) Crystal. Got a 4* after slowly rolling over four consecutive 5*s, to noone's surprise.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards.
Math... Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...
Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*. Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).
——— 5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards. (on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.
Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals. You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275). And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.
— Summary — So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).
Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead.
1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped. 2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?
The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.
Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.
Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not.
Fundamentally speaking, people who are only going to buy one or two crystals, either because they psychologically give up on them or because they don't play long enough or subscribe to the Sigil long enough, could have a high chance of "falling behind" the break even point for the Legendary crystal, but those players also lose practically nothing in the exchange. Someone only buying one or two crystals are changing their progress plus or minus an insignificance amount. More to the point, they aren't trusting the odds. They were expecting to lose, and they gave up as soon as they lost. That's not the odds that did that, that was dependent behavior that did that. That is irrelevant to the value of the crystal. If you're that guy, don't buy them at all.
The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
You're essentially charging a fixed 2 1/2 4* for an 80% chance to get a 4* anyway. As someone with a packed roster, I'm now getting less four star champs (which I don't need anyway), but more importantly, I'm likely getting 550 less 5* shards.
Math... Assuming that you don’t care one bit about any more 4* champs because you have most of them anyways (except for using 5* Shards you get from pulling 4* Dups), and your 5* are exceeding your 4* in strength because you’re starting to take those 5* champs to higher ranks ...
Getting a Dup 4* would give only 275 shards toward 5*. Let's do calculations based on buying 5 of these Legendary black market crystals (since over the long haul doing 5 of them will average out to pulling one 5* champ from them).
——— 5 Legendaries will cost you 25,000x 4* Shards. (on average) you will pull one whole 5* champ (which otherwise equates to 10,000x 5* Shards cost), and will also give you another 1100x 5* Shards (4 * 275) from the (assumed) 4* Dups of the rest.
Versus using 25,000x 4* Shards all on normal 4* crystals. You would get (assumed Dups, and even rounding up to 26,000) 3575x 5* Shards (13 * 275). And let’s give the benefit of doubt that maybe 8 of the 13 will have also been Max Sig as well, that would be another 2200x 5* Shards. For a total of only 5775x 5* Shards.
— Summary — So buying 5 Legendaries would have given you (on average) the equivalent of 11,100x 5* Shards. In the form of an actual 5* champ plus another 1100x (at a minimum, because didn’t even account for potential MaxSig from those 4 other Legendaries that gave you 4* Dups).
Versus using them as 4* would have only received around 5775x 5* Shards. That's about half as much as if you bought the black market Legendaries instead.
1) Your math is horrible, as you miss certain factors like max six gems that can net a total of 550 5* shards for each duped. 2) Your math assumes you are guaranteed a 5* out of 5 crystals. However, RNG is fickle and there is a strong chance you will get 0 for the five Legendary. People have a 15% of a 5* from a Cavalier... how many actual get 1 out of 10 crystals?
The issue is perceived probability versus actual probability. Your actual chance of getting a 5* on each crystal is still 80%. Pick up two 10-sided dice and roll them 5 times. While there is a 20% chance you will roll 80+ (one being the first number and the second die being the lower number), when you roll the dice the second time the previous roll does not increase your odds. In mathematics, the probability resets on each and every roll. There is a statistical probability that out of five attempts you will get the 20%, but it isn’t guaranteed.
Also, when you factor dupes and max sigs crystals, you need to double the 5* shards for many players that have extensive rosters. I have all 4* and almost all are max sig. many players that have been in the game 4+ years are in similar position as this.
Sorry to burst your theory, but it does not adequately reflect what actually will be experienced by many. Most people will not save up 5 legendaries... and on 5 independent attempts, most will get 5 @ 4* and not receive the 5* shards you are claiming. While statistically they should, in actuality... they will most likely not.
Fundamentally speaking, people who are only going to buy one or two crystals, either because they psychologically give up on them or because they don't play long enough or subscribe to the Sigil long enough, could have a high chance of "falling behind" the break even point for the Legendary crystal, but those players also lose practically nothing in the exchange. Someone only buying one or two crystals are changing their progress plus or minus an insignificance amount. More to the point, they aren't trusting the odds. They were expecting to lose, and they gave up as soon as they lost. That's not the odds that did that, that was dependent behavior that did that. That is irrelevant to the value of the crystal. If you're that guy, don't buy them at all.
The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
The odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
No, Casino Odds DO NOT promise that over a long enough time that the odds will tend towards you ever making money, instead it is just the opposite. Ie, Roulette is actually 38 spots (black/red 1-36, but then 2 extra green 0 and 00). So even if the odds of landing on a certain number are 1 to 36 (not sure, maybe it is even 1 to 35 ?) even though there are 38 possibilities, that means statistically the sum total to infinite plays is always a LOSS.
The sum total to infinite pulls of Legendary Crystals is actually better than sticking with 4* crystals, at least as far as 5* Heroes and/or Shards are concerned (unless you always save up 5* Shards to use towards buying 15000 Feature 5* versions instead). And it could even be that statistically the ISO and Gold is probably close as well (or nonetheless, it is not such of a disadvantage with Legendary as to be the reason you would stick with doing 4* crystals).
If we are going to risk getting a 4* at 80% why not make the trade in 10k 3* shards? I could justify that. But spending 2 guaranteed 4*’s worth of shards for 1 4* seems counterintuitive to me.
The odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
The fact that you're mentioning this at all tells me you don't understand probability or the Gambler's Fallacy or my post. In fact you couldn't have even skimmed lightly over my post. I actually calculate the odds of not pulling enough 5* champs to break even and yet you're accusing me of believing that the results of the crystal openings will always be the statistical average. That's literally not understanding anything about this topic at all.
Nowhere do I say that people are guaranteed to pull a 5* in every five pulls. That is the exact opposite of what I said. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend to understand a subject but is just Googling their way through a conversation.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
No, Casino Odds DO NOT promise that over a long enough time that the odds will tend towards you ever making money, instead it is just the opposite. Ie, Roulette is actually 38 spots (black/red 1-36, but then 2 extra green 0 and 00). So even if the odds of landing on a certain number are 1 to 36 (not sure, maybe it is even 1 to 35 ?) even though there are 38 possibilities, that means statistically the sum total to infinite plays is always a LOSS.
The sum total to infinite pulls of Legendary Crystals is actually better than sticking with 4* crystals, at least as far as 5* Heroes and/or Shards are concerned (unless you always save up 5* Shards to use towards buying 15000 Feature 5* versions instead). And it could even be that statistically the ISO and Gold is probably close as well (or nonetheless, it is not such of a disadvantage with Legendary as to be the reason you would stick with doing 4* crystals).
No one ever says you will win... you are not guaranteed a 5* in any of the legendary. You have a 20% chance on each pull. While over the course of 5 crystals you have a 33% chance of pulling at least 1 5*, it still has a 80% chance for each pull. If you open a 4*, does your odds increase on the next one? No...
If we are going to risk getting a 4* at 80% why not make the trade in 10k 3* shards? I could justify that. But spending 2 guaranteed 4*’s worth of shards for 1 4* seems counterintuitive to me.
That would be stupid. But that is not what the trade is. To be honest, I don't mind doing the calculations and informing people of what the value of the trade is, because math iz hard. But there's a part of me that also thinks if people want to ignore the math and make badly informed decisions, that just means everyone who goes with the math will get farther ahead of the people who goes with their gut, and that's an appropriate way for the universe to reward good judgment.
Well, something between 126 out of 127 people and 3448 out of 3449 people will get farther ahead. I'll take those odds any day.
If we are going to risk getting a 4* at 80% why not make the trade in 10k 3* shards? I could justify that. But spending 2 guaranteed 4*’s worth of shards for 1 4* seems counterintuitive to me.
That would be stupid. But that is not what the trade is. To be honest, I don't mind doing the calculations and informing people of what the value of the trade is, because math iz hard. But there's a part of me that also thinks if people want to ignore the math and make badly informed decisions, that just means everyone who goes with the math will get farther ahead of the people who goes with their gut, and that's an appropriate way for the universe to reward good judgment.
Well, something between 126 out of 127 people and 3448 out of 3449 people will get farther ahead. I'll take those odds any day.
I guess what I was trying to say is to me it seems steep to trade in more to get less. Yeah I see how I could get more with the 5* but to me all I see is that high chance to get less.
You can be lucky for once and pull a 5* which mostly gives you King Groot. There it goes your 5000 4*. But most of the time you trade 2.5 4* crystal for 1 4* crystal.
It's stupid at max level for both the deal offering company and purchasers.
also, how about you go ahead and fix the price of that legendary crystal before i laugh so hard my eyeballs fall out. thx.
I suckered myself into buying that crystal today. Needless to say, I won't buy that trash again. Lost 2k 5* shards and change that guarantees the 5* on a worthless gamble. Lesson learned.
The odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
The fact that you're mentioning this at all tells me you don't understand probability or the Gambler's Fallacy or my post. In fact you couldn't have even skimmed lightly over my post. I actually calculate the odds of not pulling enough 5* champs to break even and yet you're accusing me of believing that the results of the crystal openings will always be the statistical average. That's literally not understanding anything about this topic at all.
Nowhere do I say that people are guaranteed to pull a 5* in every five pulls. That is the exact opposite of what I said. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend to understand a subject but is just Googling their way through a conversation.
No, I understand... you commented on a post that I rebuttaled a claim of 5 crystals per each 5*. So, I thought you were defending his claim.
Each pull still has a 80% chance of pulling a 4*... there is no guarantee in 12 independent pulls (like your break even point) that you WILL get a 5*. While the odds will be statistically in your favor at first over time, the truth is that every independent pull is 80% not in your favor.
So, if 1-4 was all 4* pulls... do your odds increase on the 5th? Do your odds increase on the 8th from the fourth? Statistically they drop with each 4* pulled and the odds of pulling all 4* increases. However, the bitter truth of the Gambler’s Fallacy is that the odds are always 20-80 regardless of any previously opened crystal.
It is how you (not you literally) end up dumping money on featured cavalier crystal... you have a 1.2% chance at the 5*... so surely you should get it in 100 crystals? That is not always the case. While statistically you should, you can never escape the fact that each pull is 1.2% and you will most likely not get the champ. It might take 200, 500, 1000... it may take just 1. However, each pull is always 1.2%. If you went 12 legendaries and did not pull a 5*, what then?
Too keep pulling, as eventually you will hit in the comment you made... is the Gambler’s Fallacy. You can come up with break evens and statistical probabilities, but what matters is each Individual pull.
We appreciate any constructive feedback you can offer. Simply saying "thanks, i hate it" doesn't really tell us what your full thoughts are. Thanks in advance for clarifying!
Let me explain it this way...let’s there was a dinner buffet you kinda liked, they had some stuff there, but just enough to keep you coming back. Then one day you went to this buffet, the the stuff you liked wasn’t there anymore, and was replaced with something you’d never put on your plate. And when you asked management, why? You got one of these 🤷🏻♂️
Don’t frequent buffets, Same here...
Or let’s say you signed up for those monthly Prize Crates where, and $10 a month was just enough to keep you subscribed. And one month you opened the box and the stuff you actually liked getting was cut in half and replaced with a board game, something you’d never use. And when you asked why? You got one of these 🤷🏼
Don’t subscribe to that stuff, me neither...
Ok, let’s say you go to a gym, and for $10 a month, it’s open all day and night. Small place, but you were able to do cardio and lift weights and do aerobics, you used all three....one day you walked in, and one of the three aspects was replaced with something you’d never use. When you asked why, you got one of these 🤷♀️
Don’t work out?
Ok, np, let’s say you purchased a monthly bus pass, and rather than taking you to your destination where you had to walk three blocks, now you gotta walk a 6-blocks even though the driver passes your old drop off, and when you asked why...well, hopefully you get the point by now.
You took something that most people barely felt was worth buying due to the fact that you have to use items to level up champs and go through resources like crazy just to even make it worth buying and made it worse.
Hope that helps
Didn’t know it resets weekly...then who cares, all they did was add a crystal.
@DNA3000 and I am not saying that you are saying people will get it in 12 tries. However, the person that I commented to original did say you should get 1 5* out of 5 and used that to show how many 5* shards you would get.
I hope it's okay to tag you guys and you don't mind it.
I'm one of the sigil holder with expiry in next 3 days. I wanted to use this last week resources, but now i could only buy 2k red shards instead of the normal 3k red shards from 4 star shards earlier. So basically i lost 1k red shards. This change should have affected my account once i renewed the sigil and not to already active sigil. And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
I hope it's okay to tag you guys and you don't mind it.
I'm one of the sigil holder with expiry in next 3 days. I wanted to use this last week resources, but now i could only buy 2k red shards instead of the normal 3k red shards from 4 star shards earlier. So basically i lost 1k red shards. This change should have affected my account once i renewed the sigil and not to already active sigil. And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
@DNA3000 , in your last, are you saying that 1 out of 12 of getting a 5* out of legendary (or 1 out of 24 if not at Max Sig territory yet) would be the minimum rate of getting lucky with 5* draws to make it more worthwhile than just buying basic 4* crystals ?? (just trying to understand what the 12 or 24 numbers represent).
Yes, that's a simple algebraic equation, in the context of valuing the crystals relative to someone that values 5* champs far higher than 4* champs except insofar as they generate 5* shards (for example, the corner case of someone who just started a week ago and doesn't have a significant 4* roster could be different: since it could take a month or more of Legendary crystals before things mostly "average out" that's a huge amount of time not having those 4* champs for a beginning player).
In that specific situation, which probably represents a huge chunk of people considering (and able to) buy the Legendary crystal, the value of a 4* is between 275 and 550 5* shards. So we have 2.5 * 275 = 0.8 * 275 + n * 10000 where n is the chance to pull a 5* champ, valued here at 10k shards. n=24.24 here, and for the upper case of 2.5 * 550 = 0.8 * 550 + n * 10000 for basically all dups converting to max sig crystals themselves converting to 5* shards, n = 12.12.
If we're talking about what one person should do, we can simply ask whether they should buy something with a one in five chance to generate a 5* champ, when the break even point is one out of between 12 and 24. We can also ask the inverse question: if a large number of people buy the Legendary crystal many times over a period of time, what percentage of them are likely to be lucky enough to get more than necessary to break even, verses how many are likely to be unlucky enough to pull fewer than the break even. Out of 48 pulls (for nice round numbers) the break even points is between two and four 5* champs, depending on the frequency of max sig 4* crystals. We can then calculate the odds of pulling zero or one champ at the lower end (since two is break even, only pulling one or zero would be worse) and pulling zero, one, two, or three 5* champs at the higher end (since four is break even at the top). That generates the upper and lower bounds for how likely it is someone will do worse than break even for them: something between 0.02899% and 0.7889%, corresponding to one in 3449.35 and one in 126.7606 respectively.
If 100,000 players buy Legendary crystals for the next year, then some number of them, probably a couple hundred, will end up doing worse than if they just opened 4* crystals. Whether that number is reasonably low or not I guess depends on whether you're one of those couple in a thousand players. But I wouldn't make gameplay decisions based on potentially being one of those rare players.
@Anurag1606 lol....how are sigil owners at a disadvantage over other ppl? That doesn't even make sense. Do u buy the sigil every month? Were u planning on getting it next month? I highly doubt u have opened hundreds of legendary crystals and never got a single 5*. Sounds like u are exaggerating a little bit about that. Also why would they reduce the cost to just 2k shards. Then it would be stupid not to get it because u are guaranteed to get at least the 4* champ u originally would and a chance at a 5* champ.
And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
You are either misremembering the number of 5* champs you got from Legendary crystals, or you're misremembering the number of Legendary crystals you've opened. And while you're free to value the crystals any way you want for your own purposes, I'm sorry but your complaint about the Legendary crystal somehow putting Sigil players at a disadvantage is simply objectively false. If you don't like them, you don't have to buy them. But if you're going to assert they are actually harmful, you should be prepared to support that claim with more than just a subjective opinion that contradicts the facts.
im sorry @Kabam Vydious i thought i wrapped up my feelings pretty eloquently.
the thing about the black market, is its a paid service. meaning i paid money for it. up until now, everything in there was straight forward. you got what you paid for pretty straight up without much guesswork. dont even try to bring up phcs because everyone knows they are like a tree full of bids. only one thing dropping out of it. literally no one opens phcs thinking "this is gonna be my lucky day". its an iso/shard resource and nothing more.
its hard to fathom, that you could include the featured for a mere 1000 shards more than a regular 5 star, which is fantastic, then have the gall to ask 5k shards for a legendary crystal with an 80% 4 star drop. there is again, no real risk with the featured. you pay your pittance, and you still get a 5 star.
i did not pay for your subscription for more gambling. make things straight forward again. it is no bargain. or maybe im the one not getting the joke, like its a real black market and youre selling fake rolexes for regular price.
either way, everyone here is missing the real strategy of changing the black market. it used to be if you bought in on a wednesday, you got all the benefits then could skip the 5th week refresh then buy again. all youve really done is find a way to make it seem like keeping sigil constantly active is some kind of benefit. if none of that makes sense, kabam found a way for sigil to cost $60 a year more, basically.
oh and you changed the terms of the subscription i was paying for without asking, or refunding me, or giving me the option to do anything about it. so yeah, thats kinda crappy.
everyone would agree that what you should have done is just have the rest time be 7 days across the board for everything. thats it. thats all you had to do to make people happy with the price point.
in the meantime, like i said before, you can go ahead and change that legendary crystal price before i laugh so hard my eyeballs fall out.
i was excited about the change but after the reveal and seeing the cost to the Legendary i was very disappointed. i expected 3000 at most. but again, feedback is important so continue to give it.
the sigil though continues to fall short of the $ attached to maintain it. i won't be renewing unless i get something guaranteed in the form of champs. you can offer based on progression or whatever. 4* champs, 5* champs and maybe even a 6* champ should be guaranteed .. one per month. i mean what exactly would that hurt?
$120 for 12 champs. i could convince myself to be okay with that. make them nexus crystals if you must but the guarantee has to be there for me these days if i'm spending actual $.
Comments
The question is, or at least should be, if someone actually does the objective evaluation and buys purely based on the best expected value, what are the odds that they will nevertheless lose by buying Legendary crystals over the long haul. That's also calculable. To "break even" on the cost of the crystal requires something between one in 12 and one in 24 crystals to be a 5*, depending on what percentage of your 4* roster is at max sig. The more max sig crystals you get on average from 4* champs, the more valuable 4* champs are (within this context) and the less valuable Legendary crystals are by comparison. But the best case scenario for Legendary crystals is you never get max sig, which means 24.2 is the break even, and the worst case scenario is you always get max sig in which case 12.1 is the break even. That's compared to the average drop rate which is one in five.
If you buy the Legendary crystal every week for 48 weeks (just under one year), the odds of falling behind by pulling fewer 5* champs than necessary to match the shard rate of just buying 4* champs is thus between one in 127 and one in 3449. Those aren't the odds of pulling *no* 5* champs, just the odds of pulling fewer than necessary to break even with just buying 4* champs.
If you're just going to give up after one pull, don't bother: you have an 80% chance of losing shards and then quitting. That's probably not worth the trouble. If you're going to pull them consistently, the odds that this will turn out to be a losing decision in the long run is less than one in a hundred, and for most players probably less than one in a thousand. If you're afraid to play a random game in which 126 out of 127 players win because you think you're going to be that one guy out of 127 then you shouldn't play any game with random odds in it, or you're living in a Final Destination movie.
In general when the odds favor you in a game, the longer you play the more likely you'll be ahead of the game than behind, even though random chance says there's no guarantee. Billion dollar casinos are built on this premise. In effect, casinos bet huge amounts of money on games of chance where the odds favor them far less than the Legendary crystal favors players. And that's why they are billion dollar casinos and most players end up losing: they understand odds and players don't. In this case, players who think the Legendary crystal isn't worth it are in effect believing they can beat the odds in a casino: because not buying the crystal is a form of risk-taking. You're buying an inferior reward (4* champs) believing that the odds favor doing that. They don't, and that's a form of self-applied penalty.
If so, then it matches up with my logic that if the odds are 1 out of 5 (which are the stated odds), that it is basically twice as beneficial statistically to do the Legendary ones.
Statistically speaking, the Legendary crystal trades about 12.5 4* champs for 4 4* champs and a 5* champ. The net trade is thus 8.5 4* champs for a 5* champ. That's slightly better than the 2k 4* -> 1k 5* trade. So if you think the 2k 4* to 1k 5* trade is reasonable, the Legendary crystal will, over the long haul, end up costing you less ISO and gold for the same amount of 5* champs. For players for whom gold and ISO aren't a problem, they can safely buy both options without it costing them any noticeable amount of ISO and gold.
As to whether it will entice anyone to subscribe, we can't know with certainty whether any one particular person subscribed to the Sigil because of any one particular offer, but what we can know with reasonable certainty is that there's always people on the fence, and added value always kicks a few off the fence. But I doubt that addition was intended on its own to make a dramatic change in the value of the Sigil, as I expect that in general there's no incentive for Kabam to make dramatic changes to the value of the Sigil. Gradual changes over time give you all of the same benefits that adding value create, without incurring any of the penalties associated with setting unrealistic expectations on the value of the subscription.
https://study.com/academy/lesson/gamblers-fallacy-example-definition-quiz.html
The odds never change. It doesn’t matter what came first, if the pulls are 5 over 5 months... or five in the same day. The odds on every single opening is 80% that you will get a 4*. While on average, yes a 1 in 5 chance exists in the coding, it is NOT guaranteed. So, all the theoretical math being used as actual fact is hogwash.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is why you have billion dollar casinos and billion dollar mobile game companies. You are programmed to think that over time you WILL hit. However, the odds are not in your favor and regardless of the math on paper, you can not escape that ever pull is not in your favor and you only have a 20% chance for a five star on each pull.
You are a very smart person, but in this... you are flat wrong. There are some that will beat the odds, and those that may never pull a 5*. But telling people they will in every 5 pulls is Deceptive at best.
No, Casino Odds DO NOT promise that over a long enough time that the odds will tend towards you ever making money, instead it is just the opposite. Ie, Roulette is actually 38 spots (black/red 1-36, but then 2 extra green 0 and 00). So even if the odds of landing on a certain number are 1 to 36 (not sure, maybe it is even 1 to 35 ?) even though there are 38 possibilities, that means statistically the sum total to infinite plays is always a LOSS.
The sum total to infinite pulls of Legendary Crystals is actually better than sticking with 4* crystals, at least as far as 5* Heroes and/or Shards are concerned (unless you always save up 5* Shards to use towards buying 15000 Feature 5* versions instead). And it could even be that statistically the ISO and Gold is probably close as well (or nonetheless, it is not such of a disadvantage with Legendary as to be the reason you would stick with doing 4* crystals).
Nowhere do I say that people are guaranteed to pull a 5* in every five pulls. That is the exact opposite of what I said. This is what happens when someone tries to pretend to understand a subject but is just Googling their way through a conversation.
Well, something between 126 out of 127 people and 3448 out of 3449 people will get farther ahead. I'll take those odds any day.
It's stupid at max level for both the deal offering company and purchasers.
Each pull still has a 80% chance of pulling a 4*... there is no guarantee in 12 independent pulls (like your break even point) that you WILL get a 5*. While the odds will be statistically in your favor at first over time, the truth is that every independent pull is 80% not in your favor.
So, if 1-4 was all 4* pulls... do your odds increase on the 5th? Do your odds increase on the 8th from the fourth? Statistically they drop with each 4* pulled and the odds of pulling all 4* increases. However, the bitter truth of the Gambler’s Fallacy is that the odds are always 20-80 regardless of any previously opened crystal.
It is how you (not you literally) end up dumping money on featured cavalier crystal... you have a 1.2% chance at the 5*... so surely you should get it in 100 crystals? That is not always the case. While statistically you should, you can never escape the fact that each pull is 1.2% and you will most likely not get the champ. It might take 200, 500, 1000... it may take just 1. However, each pull is always 1.2%. If you went 12 legendaries and did not pull a 5*, what then?
Too keep pulling, as eventually you will hit in the comment you made... is the Gambler’s Fallacy. You can come up with break evens and statistical probabilities, but what matters is each Individual pull.
Didn’t know it resets weekly...then who cares, all they did was add a crystal.
I hope it's okay to tag you guys and you don't mind it.
I'm one of the sigil holder with expiry in next 3 days. I wanted to use this last week resources, but now i could only buy 2k red shards instead of the normal 3k red shards from 4 star shards earlier. So basically i lost 1k red shards. This change should have affected my account once i renewed the sigil and not to already active sigil. And the legendary crystal is a total ripoff. I can't remember even once i opened a 5 star from it. And must have opened 100s. I agree it's just an additional stuff and you aren't bound to buy it. But when it's added, PPL are bound to do mistake of buying it and later repent on it. It should never be visible. If you get 4 star from the legendary crystal then you are basically at a disadvantage than the non sigil members, is that what sigil will represent now on? 80% chance (which really goes to 100%) sigil members being at disadvantage than non sigil members? I really think they should reduce it to 2k 4 star shards.
In that specific situation, which probably represents a huge chunk of people considering (and able to) buy the Legendary crystal, the value of a 4* is between 275 and 550 5* shards. So we have 2.5 * 275 = 0.8 * 275 + n * 10000 where n is the chance to pull a 5* champ, valued here at 10k shards. n=24.24 here, and for the upper case of 2.5 * 550 = 0.8 * 550 + n * 10000 for basically all dups converting to max sig crystals themselves converting to 5* shards, n = 12.12.
If we're talking about what one person should do, we can simply ask whether they should buy something with a one in five chance to generate a 5* champ, when the break even point is one out of between 12 and 24. We can also ask the inverse question: if a large number of people buy the Legendary crystal many times over a period of time, what percentage of them are likely to be lucky enough to get more than necessary to break even, verses how many are likely to be unlucky enough to pull fewer than the break even. Out of 48 pulls (for nice round numbers) the break even points is between two and four 5* champs, depending on the frequency of max sig 4* crystals. We can then calculate the odds of pulling zero or one champ at the lower end (since two is break even, only pulling one or zero would be worse) and pulling zero, one, two, or three 5* champs at the higher end (since four is break even at the top). That generates the upper and lower bounds for how likely it is someone will do worse than break even for them: something between 0.02899% and 0.7889%, corresponding to one in 3449.35 and one in 126.7606 respectively.
If 100,000 players buy Legendary crystals for the next year, then some number of them, probably a couple hundred, will end up doing worse than if they just opened 4* crystals. Whether that number is reasonably low or not I guess depends on whether you're one of those couple in a thousand players. But I wouldn't make gameplay decisions based on potentially being one of those rare players.
the thing about the black market, is its a paid service. meaning i paid money for it. up until now, everything in there was straight forward. you got what you paid for pretty straight up without much guesswork. dont even try to bring up phcs because everyone knows they are like a tree full of bids. only one thing dropping out of it. literally no one opens phcs thinking "this is gonna be my lucky day". its an iso/shard resource and nothing more.
its hard to fathom, that you could include the featured for a mere 1000 shards more than a regular 5 star, which is fantastic, then have the gall to ask 5k shards for a legendary crystal with an 80% 4 star drop. there is again, no real risk with the featured. you pay your pittance, and you still get a 5 star.
i did not pay for your subscription for more gambling. make things straight forward again. it is no bargain. or maybe im the one not getting the joke, like its a real black market and youre selling fake rolexes for regular price.
either way, everyone here is missing the real strategy of changing the black market. it used to be if you bought in on a wednesday, you got all the benefits then could skip the 5th week refresh then buy again. all youve really done is find a way to make it seem like keeping sigil constantly active is some kind of benefit. if none of that makes sense, kabam found a way for sigil to cost $60 a year more, basically.
oh and you changed the terms of the subscription i was paying for without asking, or refunding me, or giving me the option to do anything about it. so yeah, thats kinda crappy.
everyone would agree that what you should have done is just have the rest time be 7 days across the board for everything. thats it. thats all you had to do to make people happy with the price point.
in the meantime, like i said before, you can go ahead and change that legendary crystal price before i laugh so hard my eyeballs fall out.
the sigil though continues to fall short of the $ attached to maintain it. i won't be renewing unless i get something guaranteed in the form of champs. you can offer based on progression or whatever. 4* champs, 5* champs and maybe even a 6* champ should be guaranteed .. one per month. i mean what exactly would that hurt?
$120 for 12 champs. i could convince myself to be okay with that. make them nexus crystals if you must but the guarantee has to be there for me these days if i'm spending actual $.