We are reaching the end of 2022 and you can't get a guaranteed 6star opening after a side event. I remember a year ago side events would often give up to 25k shards. Does Kabam even want people to stick around for the events anymore?

We are reaching the end of 2022 and you can't get a guaranteed 6star opening after a side event. I remember a year ago side events would often give up to 25k shards. Does Kabam even want people to stick around for the events anymore?

What events in the past have had 25k 6* shards?

Is there anywhere there's a list of side events? I used to open 2-3 6stars a month when I was cav. I'm paragon now and I open about 1 a month unless I explore side events/there's an extra event like EOP.

I don't like the idea of constantly making RNG rewards on side quests associated with rifts

Summoners against RNG!! RNG should be out of MCOC!!

What do we want?

No more RNG in a game built entirely on RNG!!

When do we want it??

Rand(0,100) days

The RNG part is already existing in the crystal itself as you can get a same class of an AG that you already have two of, but adding another layer of RNG whether you get the crystal itself or not was unnecessary imo

I don't like the idea of constantly making RNG rewards on side quests associated with rifts

Summoners against RNG!! RNG should be out of MCOC!!

What do we want?

No more RNG in a game built entirely on RNG!!

When do we want it??

Rand(0,100) days

The RNG part is already existing in the crystal itself as you can get a same class of an AG that you already have two of, but adding another layer of RNG whether you get the crystal itself or not was unnecessary imo

Cavalier+? What a slap in the face to Paragon players.

I was not expecting you to use the slap in a face phrase lol. But I agree.

Don't worry. It was purely sarcasm. Just wanted to be the first one to do it. It is a little weird that Cavs don't have their own as it's been TB/Paragon.

We are reaching the end of 2022 and you can't get a guaranteed 6star opening after a side event. I remember a year ago side events would often give up to 25k shards. Does Kabam even want people to stick around for the events anymore?

What events in the past have had 25k 6* shards?

Is there anywhere there's a list of side events? I used to open 2-3 6stars a month when I was cav. I'm paragon now and I open about 1 a month unless I explore side events/there's an extra event like EOP.

Cool. So you found 2 events. The 2nd event was a 2 part event which is 2 side quests. You said a year ago, events would OFTEN give up to 25k shards. Neither of the linked events gave 25k shards.

because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…

but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???

I did think that for a second, but then I realised that obviously it would just mean a guaranteed 6* awakening for everyone that month. So I understand why they didn’t.

Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.

Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.

I love addition of 6* AG. But, totally random drop chance is not good idea in my opinion, especially with things as rare as 6* AG's. Many people will get zero gems, meanwhile few will get to acquire, 2, 3, or even more gems. I would much rather see something as giving AG out periodically every few months through SQ, but for everyone.

For people complaining about the top part of the store being Cavlier+ instead of better things for TB and Paragon I think it actually is structured with progression locks keeping Cavs from getting the better value and rarity items and they just didn't post it correctly. If you look at the T5CC fragment rewards the 1% crystal and 2% crystals don't appear to be for the same tier of progression because you have to buy 1 1% crystal for 3,500 candy up to 5 times but the 2% crystal is 1 purchase that gives 5 crystals for only 5,000 candy. It is a similar thing with the T5B cat and the fragments.

Usually when they offer items like that with such a huge difference in what you get for the cost and the quantity of the items/fragments it is because the better ones are locked to keep lower progression players from getting them. We will have to wait a few days to see unless a mod deigns to clarify if they messed up the charts but from the looks of it I think we can buy all the lower progression stuff and Cav will be locked from some of the Cav+ chart.

because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…

but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???

I did think that for a second, but then I realised that obviously it would just mean a guaranteed 6* awakening for everyone that month. So I understand why they didn’t.

Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.

Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.

I don't think its additive like that. Each entry u have 1% chance for awakening gem. If rng was additive then premium hero crystal would have given you guaranteed 4 star after 50 pulls at least. Chance being 2.4% so according to your calculation after 50 pull its 50X2.4= 120% chance.

But it isn't. 2.4% means each pull chance is 2.4% doesn't matter you open 1000 or 100.

because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…

but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???

I did think that for a second, but then I realised that obviously it would just mean a guaranteed 6* awakening for everyone that month. So I understand why they didn’t.

Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.

Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.

I don't think its additive like that. Each entry u have 1% chance for awakening gem. If rng was additive then premium hero crystal would have given you guaranteed 4 star after 50 pulls at least. Chance being 2.4% so according to your calculation after 50 pull its 50X2.4= 120% chance.

But it isn't. 2.4% means each pull chance is 2.4% doesn't matter you open 1000 or 100.

I never said it *was* additive. This is going to be a long maths post, so bear with… but, you did ask..

The way probability works, is that your chance for an awakening gem from any single run stays the same. But if you do 100 runs, you have a higher chance overall to get a 6* gem from *at least 1* of the runs, than if you just did 1. Does that make sense?

It’s not the same chance overall to get at least 1 gem from a billion runs than just 1 is it? But as you said, you can’t just add up 1% until it’s 100% because then 100 pulls would guarantee a gem. So how do you work out what the overall chance of getting lucky at least one time from X runs?

It’s a 1% chance to get a 6* gem from 1 run, but what is the chance to get at least 1 6* gem from 100 runs?

The way to do this, is take the % chance of not getting a gem (in this case you have a 99% chance to not get a gem) and just say “what are the chances that in every single run I do, I hit that 99% and I don’t get a gem”

So if we use the example of 1 run. What are the chances that we hit the 99%? Well, 0.99^1 = 0.99 so that’s a 99% chance to not get a gem. It checks out. 1% chance to get a gem as we suspect.

Now for 2 runs, the chances of getting the 99% twice is 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.99^2 = 0.98

Which is a 98% chance that you’re going to get 0 awakening gems, leaving a 2% chance that you get either 1, or 2 awakening gems. (The chances for 2 is absurdly small though from just 2 runs - 0.01%)

But what if we have 100 runs?

Well what you’re working out is; what if in each of these 100 runs, I get the 99% each time. So that’s 0.99*0.99 …. 100 times. Which is 0.99^100 = 0.36. So that’s a 36% chance that if you ran it 100 times you’d get 0 gems.

So that means, that 1-0.36 = the chance that we don’t get 0 from running it 100 times. I.e. 64% is the chance that we get at least 1 gem from 100 runs.

That’s the % chance of 1 gem, 2 gems, 3 gems etc up to 100 gems all added up. But obviously they get obscenely small % chance, so the bulk of it is the chance of getting 1 gem.

This is what I mean by a 30% chance overall. When you do this calculation with 35 runs, you get a 70% chance that we get 0 gems, which means a 30% chance that you get 1, 2, 3 etc gems. And of that 30% chance, most of it is 1 gem.

TL:DR percentages are not additive nor did I say they were. You’re working out the chance of getting “not a gem” every single run, and then doing 1 minus that chance to have an overall % of at least 1 gem.

## Comments

21,831★★★★★88★2,882Guardian388★★★Here's one with more 6star shards and it's a year and a half ago. We have the paragon title now and are getting (in some cases) worse rewards than Cav players 18 months ago. We are moving onto 7* but there's barely any reward progression here. https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/276484/solve-the-mystery-and-save-the-contest-this-september

It's pathetic, really.

Edit: https://frontlinemcoc.home.blog/2021/10/06/how-the-october-2021-side-quest-works-the-mysterious-contest-part-2/

A year ago and has 24k 6star shards.

9,264★★★★★What do we want?

No more RNG in a game built entirely on RNG!!

When do we want it??

Rand(0,100) days

835★★★★Given the 6 star AG... maybe it would need to be a TB challenge for 1, and another one through a harder challenge for Paragon players.

453★★★★424★★★323★★★prefer quests that give same rewards for the effort keeping content fair for all

1,600★★★★★668★★★424★★★21,831★★★★★809★★★21,831★★★★★424★★★36,510★★★★★544★★★4,615★★★★★302★★528★★★Im hoping the month has more surprises

544★★★51★because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…

but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???

9,264★★★★★Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.

Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.

894★★★444★★★I would much rather see something as giving AG out periodically every few months through SQ, but for everyone.

2,601★★★★★1,415★★★★Usually when they offer items like that with such a huge difference in what you get for the cost and the quantity of the items/fragments it is because the better ones are locked to keep lower progression players from getting them. We will have to wait a few days to see unless a mod deigns to clarify if they messed up the charts but from the looks of it I think we can buy all the lower progression stuff and Cav will be locked from some of the Cav+ chart.

624★★★But it isn't. 2.4% means each pull chance is 2.4% doesn't matter you open 1000 or 100.

9,264★★★★★The way probability works, is that your chance for an awakening gem from any single run stays the same. But if you do 100 runs, you have a higher chance overall to get a 6* gem from *at least 1* of the runs, than if you just did 1. Does that make sense?

It’s not the same chance overall to get at least 1 gem from a billion runs than just 1 is it? But as you said, you can’t just add up 1% until it’s 100% because then 100 pulls would guarantee a gem. So how do you work out what the overall chance of getting lucky at least one time from X runs?

It’s a 1% chance to get a 6* gem from 1 run, but what is the chance to get at least 1 6* gem from 100 runs?

The way to do this, is take the % chance of not getting a gem (in this case you have a 99% chance to not get a gem) and just say “what are the chances that in every single run I do, I hit that 99% and I don’t get a gem”

So if we use the example of 1 run. What are the chances that we hit the 99%? Well, 0.99^1 = 0.99 so that’s a 99% chance to not get a gem. It checks out. 1% chance to get a gem as we suspect.

Now for 2 runs, the chances of getting the 99% twice is 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.99^2 = 0.98

Which is a 98% chance that you’re going to get 0 awakening gems, leaving a 2% chance that you get either 1, or 2 awakening gems. (The chances for 2 is absurdly small though from just 2 runs - 0.01%)

But what if we have 100 runs?

Well what you’re working out is; what if in each of these 100 runs, I get the 99% each time. So that’s 0.99*0.99 …. 100 times. Which is 0.99^100 = 0.36. So that’s a 36% chance that if you ran it 100 times you’d get 0 gems.

So that means, that 1-0.36 = the chance that we don’t get 0 from running it 100 times. I.e. 64% is the chance that we get at least 1 gem from 100 runs.

That’s the % chance of 1 gem, 2 gems, 3 gems etc up to 100 gems all added up. But obviously they get obscenely small % chance, so the bulk of it is the chance of getting 1 gem.

This is what I mean by a 30% chance overall. When you do this calculation with 35 runs, you get a 70% chance that we get 0 gems, which means a 30% chance that you get 1, 2, 3 etc gems. And of that 30% chance, most of it is 1 gem.

TL:DR percentages are not additive nor did I say they were. You’re working out the chance of getting “not a gem” every single run, and then doing 1 minus that chance to have an overall % of at least 1 gem.