Crystal Update - Nexus Chance Addition

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  • hefy2000hefy2000 Posts: 68 ★★

    hefy2000 said:

    Pardon my bluntness, but I really don’t understand the negativity surrounding this. There is literally no downside to this change at all. Sure it’s a small improvement to the crystals, but it’s an improvement nonetheless.

    It's meaningless. It's like your employer telling you your salary is going up, from 3000$ to 3001$. Statistically speaking, it's going up, but the change is worthless to you.

    If they wanted to make a meaningful change, they would have removed 3-stars from cavalier crystals.

    Meanwhile there are more pressing issues that need urgent attention, like solo crystals, or war crystals.
    Thanks for the clarification. I think this is more of an issue of bad timing. If Kabam had waited to announce this after the solo event update, people would not be this upset.

    With that being said, I still don’t think there’s any reason to be up in arms over this. The solo event update is coming. Kabam have promised as much. An out-of-the-blue $1 raise preceding a much bigger one in the very near future would not upset me in real life.

  • EtjamaEtjama Posts: 6,980 ★★★★★
    RakeYoung said:

    @DNA3000 I typically trust you’re posts cause you’re very assertive in your statements.

    I’m a dumb guy and high school drop out, so with that in mind is this a coin flip within a coin flip for it to be a Nexus or are they separate odds?

    Cause they way it reads in the in game mail, to a simple guy like myself it says it’s reducing the 1% chance to 0.8% and allotting 0.2% chance for a nexus and that to me reads as separate odds for a pull.

    No, you're right. The 6* chance is reduced by 0.2% and they replace it with a chance at a 6* Nexus.
  • RakeYoungRakeYoung Posts: 271 ★★
    Etjama said:

    RakeYoung said:

    @DNA3000 I typically trust you’re posts cause you’re very assertive in your statements.

    I’m a dumb guy and high school drop out, so with that in mind is this a coin flip within a coin flip for it to be a Nexus or are they separate odds?

    Cause they way it reads in the in game mail, to a simple guy like myself it says it’s reducing the 1% chance to 0.8% and allotting 0.2% chance for a nexus and that to me reads as separate odds for a pull.

    No, you're right. The 6* chance is reduced by 0.2% and they replace it with a chance at a 6* Nexus.
    @Etjama so it is separate odds?

    As an example, the drop rates shown on the crystals would say:

    6* Nexus 0.2%
    6* champion 0.8%

    5* Champion (whatever the drop rate is)
    Etc...
  • EtjamaEtjama Posts: 6,980 ★★★★★
    RakeYoung said:

    Etjama said:

    RakeYoung said:

    @DNA3000 I typically trust you’re posts cause you’re very assertive in your statements.

    I’m a dumb guy and high school drop out, so with that in mind is this a coin flip within a coin flip for it to be a Nexus or are they separate odds?

    Cause they way it reads in the in game mail, to a simple guy like myself it says it’s reducing the 1% chance to 0.8% and allotting 0.2% chance for a nexus and that to me reads as separate odds for a pull.

    No, you're right. The 6* chance is reduced by 0.2% and they replace it with a chance at a 6* Nexus.
    @Etjama so it is separate odds?

    As an example, the drop rates shown on the crystals would say:

    6* Nexus 0.2%
    6* champion 0.8%

    5* Champion (whatever the drop rate is)
    Etc...
    Yeah, Kabam's trying to say that there's a chance for the 6* to convert to a Nexus or something, just ignore it.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Posts: 1,921 ★★★★★
    edited September 2020
    I'm looking forward to forgetting this ever changed, and then when the miracle happens and I pull a 6* Nexus I'll be like "holy Miike where did that come from? The crystals are bugged".
  • BhopBhop Posts: 35
    If I have cavalier crystals in my inventory already when the change drops will they get the adjustment @Kabam Boo ?
  • RakeYoungRakeYoung Posts: 271 ★★
    DNA3000 said:

    RakeYoung said:

    @DNA3000 I typically trust you’re posts cause you’re very assertive in your statements.

    I’m a dumb guy and high school drop out, so with that in mind is this a coin flip within a coin flip for it to be a Nexus or are they separate odds?

    Cause they way it reads in the in game mail, to a simple guy like myself it says it’s reducing the 1% chance to 0.8% and allotting 0.2% chance for a nexus and that to me reads as separate odds for a pull.

    It is more like they are taking the original 1% chance and splitting it into a 0.8% chance and a 0.2% chance.

    I mentioned something like this in another thread, but I've refined it a bit here. Imagine the Cav crystal is one of those giant prize wheels you spin to get a prize. Assuming you have to close your eyes and spin, the odds of getting any particular prize is based on what percentage of the wheel is "that color." So if the wheel had four painted wedges each of which was one quarter of the wheel, then you'd say that each of those prizes had a 25% chance of coming up.

    So now imagine that you're spinning the Cav wheel, and the 6* jackpot prize is a tiny 1% wedge of that wheel, colored green. You now have a 1% chance of spinning that jackpot 6* prize, right?

    Okay, now suppose I take the wheel, and take the green wedge, and take one fifth of that little green wedge and paint polka dots on it. Now when you spin the wheel, what are the odds of spinning green again? Still 1%, right? My polka dots didn't change that. But lets say I tell you that if you land on polka dots, your prize is a 6* Nexus. If you land on the normal green part, you get a 6* basic. Either way, you are getting a 6* champion.

    What are the odds of getting some kind of 6* champion? 1%, because the green wedge didn't change size or shape. It is still the same. What are the odds of getting 6* nexus? Well, one fifth of the green wedge has polka dots, so one fifth of 1% right? That's 0.2%. What are the odds of pulling a 6* basic champ directly? Well, the green wedge that doesn't have polka dots on it is 4/5ths of the total green wedge, so that's 4/5ths of 1% or 0.8%.

    That's basically how the Cav crystal works. It is a little more complicated for the Featured due to how the Featured odds work, but the same principle applies. The odds of getting a specific rarity isn't changing, because the size of their wedge on the prize wheel isn't changing. It is just that a small slice of that wedge is getting polka dots, and polka dots means Nexus. Not-polka dots means a normal basic drop.

    Hope the visual metaphor helps.
    @DNA3000 thank you for the visual aide.

    So while percentage wise, the 1% chance for a 6* hasn’t changed.

    They have in fact reduced the chance to get a normal 6* pull by separating the chance to pull a Nexus.

    Yes, you still have 1% chance at a 6* but they are separate odds.


    I think it would have been better if they made it 1.2% chance at a 6* and took that 0.2% from the 3* odds

    This way the normal 6* pull odds don’t change and we do in fact get the added benefit of a separate chance at the Nexus
  • tafre said:

    I guess this will be a good thing for progressing players who need certain 4 stars but other than that it does so little that it is practically nothing. I rarely ever buy cavs so if they are not going to be available for non-cash offers I will not be affected by this minimal change. I'll do some calculations for the free grandmaster crystal I get every week.

    52 weeks per year give or take, so you get 52 grandmaster crystals just from logging in. Assuming the data normalizes an average player will be getting approximately 42.64 three stars, 7.8 four stars and 1.56 five stars. Now that becomes 1.24 five stars and 0.32 five star Nexus crystals per year.

    From a free to play perspective I really don't see why time was even spent on making such an announcement. Sure it is a good change I guess, but did premium, grandmaster and cavalier crystals need any sort of revamp? It is not even lowering the chances of 3-4 star champs to increase 5 and 6 star drop rates. This will be something big spenders benefit from and nothing more unfortunately.

    It makes me sad that these small changes that benefit nearly nobody are done but other small changes such as adding the sig stones to solo events that were supposedly in the works are nowhere to be seen.

    Final words, I am pretty sure many will disagree with this comment and view me as ungrateful. Sorry for stating facts.

    The nerve of some people, disagreeing with such obvious facts.
  • Would have been better if they remove 3*'s on cav crystals
  • HieitakuHieitaku Posts: 769 ★★★★
    Looking away from the negative reactions and brewing fights on this thread, what are the downsides to this change again?

    I can't imagine any, so I'd appreciate some insight.
  • WillieB said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Who cares about this ****? We get 0.6% chance, woo effin hoo. How about you do something worthwhile, and update the sh***y war crystal, war loss crystal, daily crystal, solo crystal and whatnot instead of making these useless changes?

    I care. About one out every five times I would have pulled a 5* or 6* champion from those crystals I'm now going to be getting a Nexus. I don't pull *lots* of 5* or 6* champs from those crystals, but I get them every so often. To have one out of five become Nexus crystals is interesting, and the way the math works out it improves the odds of pulling a specific champion from those crystals by about 40%, also a not insignificant shift in odds.

    Even the 4* Nexus from the PHCs isn't a complete waste, as it increases the odds of me filling in the few 4* holes I have, or alternatively steering 4* drops into max sig crystals, which means more 5* shards.
    So if you bought one every single day this year, you MIGHT get one Nexus crystal this year. Nothing worth turning back-flips over.
    For those of us using statistics, one crystal a day would give you an 88.88% chance at getting a 6* nexus in a year; not that bad. I’m willing to bet that’d be one more than most of us have gotten so far playing the game.

    The truth is, if it’s too easy it won’t be as fun. Anyone whining about this change got too many participation ribbons growing up.
  • RakeYoung said:

    DNA3000 said:

    RakeYoung said:

    @DNA3000 I typically trust you’re posts cause you’re very assertive in your statements.

    I’m a dumb guy and high school drop out, so with that in mind is this a coin flip within a coin flip for it to be a Nexus or are they separate odds?

    Cause they way it reads in the in game mail, to a simple guy like myself it says it’s reducing the 1% chance to 0.8% and allotting 0.2% chance for a nexus and that to me reads as separate odds for a pull.

    It is more like they are taking the original 1% chance and splitting it into a 0.8% chance and a 0.2% chance.

    I mentioned something like this in another thread, but I've refined it a bit here. Imagine the Cav crystal is one of those giant prize wheels you spin to get a prize. Assuming you have to close your eyes and spin, the odds of getting any particular prize is based on what percentage of the wheel is "that color." So if the wheel had four painted wedges each of which was one quarter of the wheel, then you'd say that each of those prizes had a 25% chance of coming up.

    So now imagine that you're spinning the Cav wheel, and the 6* jackpot prize is a tiny 1% wedge of that wheel, colored green. You now have a 1% chance of spinning that jackpot 6* prize, right?

    Okay, now suppose I take the wheel, and take the green wedge, and take one fifth of that little green wedge and paint polka dots on it. Now when you spin the wheel, what are the odds of spinning green again? Still 1%, right? My polka dots didn't change that. But lets say I tell you that if you land on polka dots, your prize is a 6* Nexus. If you land on the normal green part, you get a 6* basic. Either way, you are getting a 6* champion.

    What are the odds of getting some kind of 6* champion? 1%, because the green wedge didn't change size or shape. It is still the same. What are the odds of getting 6* nexus? Well, one fifth of the green wedge has polka dots, so one fifth of 1% right? That's 0.2%. What are the odds of pulling a 6* basic champ directly? Well, the green wedge that doesn't have polka dots on it is 4/5ths of the total green wedge, so that's 4/5ths of 1% or 0.8%.

    That's basically how the Cav crystal works. It is a little more complicated for the Featured due to how the Featured odds work, but the same principle applies. The odds of getting a specific rarity isn't changing, because the size of their wedge on the prize wheel isn't changing. It is just that a small slice of that wedge is getting polka dots, and polka dots means Nexus. Not-polka dots means a normal basic drop.

    Hope the visual metaphor helps.
    @DNA3000 thank you for the visual aide.

    So while percentage wise, the 1% chance for a 6* hasn’t changed.

    They have in fact reduced the chance to get a normal 6* pull by separating the chance to pull a Nexus.

    Yes, you still have 1% chance at a 6* but they are separate odds.


    I think it would have been better if they made it 1.2% chance at a 6* and took that 0.2% from the 3* odds

    This way the normal 6* pull odds don’t change and we do in fact get the added benefit of a separate chance at the Nexus
    Suppose I were to say that in the 6* basic crystal, one out of ten pulls would now be a Nexus 6* crystal. Would you believe that Kabam had reduced the chance to get a 6* basic, and they should do something about that by keeping the 6* drop odds at 100%, and then adding an additional 10% chance to get the Nexus on top of the basic pull?

    I mean, of course that is better. But would you characterize it that way, that Kabam is giving you a Nexus but only by taking a 6* basic away? Because this is essentially the same thing.
  • I think a lot of people are judging the crystal changes in terms of how many more 5* and 6* champions they are going to get, and the answer is: zero. This change does not increase the number of 5* or 6* champions anyone is going to get. That is not what this change is about.

    In the dev diaries, Kabam stated that one of their ongoing goals was going to be to increase the ability for players to steer champion acquisition without eliminating randomness in champion acquisition. They mentioned dual class crystals, which now exist, and better featured curation, which players currently debate, and something called a "wish crystal" which is a down the road thing.

    The Nexus additions to these crystals are a small part of that overall goal: to improve the ability for players to have a little more control over which champions they get without eliminating the effects of randomness. This isn't about getting more 5* and 6* champions into players' hands; that's a separate goal being tackled in other areas of the game. This is just about improving player agency in champion acquisition in a deliberately small way, which is supposed to be judged as part of a larger strategy to add these kinds of small mitigations in RNG.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,690 ★★★★★
    I think people are a bit confused. It's better to look at it this way. The Rates haven't changed at all because the same Champs are in the Nexus as the original top pull. Only now you have a smaller chance at a choice of 3 within that top outcome. So still the same Champs, 0.8% chance at any random outcome, 0.2% chance at choosing one of 3, which are random just the same as the 0.8%. It's not lessening the outcome in any way, it's awarding you the benefit of choice, if you pull it.
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,660 ★★★★★
    Hieitaku said:

    Looking away from the negative reactions and brewing fights on this thread, what are the downsides to this change again?

    I can't imagine any, so I'd appreciate some insight.

    it's only a positive, but it's not a big change. most people think they could have done more to make them appealing or worth buying
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 11,100 ★★★★★

    Lol. So ridiculous.

    Hey everyone huge update!! We went from a 1% chance to get a 6* to NOW a 1% chance to obtain a 6*

    Can you point me to where they said "huge update"? All I see in this post header is nexus addition.
  • hefy2000 said:

    hefy2000 said:

    Pardon my bluntness, but I really don’t understand the negativity surrounding this. There is literally no downside to this change at all. Sure it’s a small improvement to the crystals, but it’s an improvement nonetheless.

    It's meaningless. It's like your employer telling you your salary is going up, from 3000$ to 3001$. Statistically speaking, it's going up, but the change is worthless to you.

    If they wanted to make a meaningful change, they would have removed 3-stars from cavalier crystals.

    Meanwhile there are more pressing issues that need urgent attention, like solo crystals, or war crystals.
    Thanks for the clarification. I think this is more of an issue of bad timing. If Kabam had waited to announce this after the solo event update, people would not be this upset.

    With that being said, I still don’t think there’s any reason to be up in arms over this. The solo event update is coming. Kabam have promised as much. An out-of-the-blue $1 raise preceding a much bigger one in the very near future would not upset me in real life.

    One of the more ridiculous statements I read in this thread. All of the people that are mad here now, why would solo events change their opinion or emotion?
    They are a pressing issue in dire need of urgent attention.
  • HieitakuHieitaku Posts: 769 ★★★★

    Hieitaku said:

    Looking away from the negative reactions and brewing fights on this thread, what are the downsides to this change again?

    I can't imagine any, so I'd appreciate some insight.

    it's only a positive, but it's not a big change. most people think they could have done more to make them appealing or worth buying
    The point of my question exactly. It's like most players expect to be excited with each update and then end up complaining if they didn't like it, being a net positive change (whatever the degree) or not.
  • The chance to get a 5 or 6 star is still the same so doesn't really do much. Might change what would have been an iron patriot to a ghost in other words. Good for the whales I suppose. May help a few newer players.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,690 ★★★★★

    Well done Kabam.

    That one's just funny. I remember that Meme.
  • It's pretty cool but What about the Features 5 & 6 star hero crystal BUDDY.!!!????
  • The chance to get a 5 or 6 star is still the same so doesn't really do much. Might change what would have been an iron patriot to a ghost in other words. Good for the whales I suppose. May help a few newer players.

    A lot of people think 5* and 6* Nexus crystals do a lot, even though they do not increase the chance of getting a 5* or 6* champion, or increase the amount of rewards you get over the basic crystals of that rarity.
  • FallencircusFallencircus Posts: 339 ★★★
    Is this a positive change? Yes, but a very small one.
    Will this cause me to buy a single Cav crystal? Absolutely not.
    Maybe I would be inclined if 6* was raised to 5% and 5* to 25% at least. But nobody is forcing me to buy them.
    Seems like another in a long line of bare minimum updates.
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